The Stingray Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 155m 2nd weekend (50, 58, 47). Sound good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I trust Rth implicitly, but a 38 W hold sounds too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I agree with you vc2002 to an extent, but only partially. I am a passionate Star Wars fan, so of course I want the SW movies to kill at the box office. I am invested in them as a fan! But I agree with you in another sense. I frankly think Titanic is kind of a pile of crap. I think being able to see this incredible recreation of the boat is amazing and all of the craftspeople who worked on it did a stellar job. There is certainly a lot to appreciate there. That being said, it's Cameron's worst movie, it's Leo's worst performance and he's one of the great actors of our generation, it's Winslet's worst performance arguably (though I haven't seen them all), and the love story is terrible. They just met, WHAT love story?! The story overall is almost as bad as the dialogue and the cardboard antagonist and the ridiculousness of every rich person basically being a terrible jerk. That being said, I can separate my opinion of the film from my amazement and interest over the box office performance. It truly was amazing to behold and is something you look back on and say, dang, will I ever see that again? So I can appreciate and be in awe of the box office but not think much of the movie. I don't want to be dramatic, though, I'd still give Titanic 3 stars out of 4 because visually it is that good and there's just something cool about being able to see the boat and all of the details in such a faithfully recreated way. My question to you box office experts here, because I cannot wrap my mind around this... When I am looking through virtually every significant film at this time period, they all increase or stay flat or barely decrease at all from the week before X-Mas mid-week numbers to the week between X-Mas and New Year's. That... can't happen here, can it? I mean it surely has to fall 25% per day or so from this week, like Monday to Monday, Tuesday to Tuesday, etc., right? If the film held roughly even that would be jaw-dropping. That's when you actually can start to call $1 billion a lock if it made another $135M next week during the week. I just can't really see that happening. If it made $100M it would still be remarkable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 13 minutes ago, peludo said: Titanic remains to be the most amazing run ever. . Titanic is the only film since ET to rival the truly epic box office runs of the 70s and early 80s i recall experiencing with the Exorcist, then Jaws, Star Wars (tops in our lifetimes), and then ET. The way Titanic just kept putting up more than $20 million a week (when that was a big deal) for more than four months, and with tween/teen girls going back to see it over and over like little boys did for Star Wars in 1977, was something we hadn't seen in forever. ET was similar to Avatar in that the whole world saw them, once. But Titanic was like Star Wars and Jaws, it inspired fanatacism, such that fans just kept going back for more. Edited December 24, 2015 by SteveJaros 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 12 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I agree with you vc2002 to an extent, but only partially. I am a passionate Star Wars fan, so of course I want the SW movies to kill at the box office. I am invested in them as a fan! But I agree with you in another sense. I frankly think Titanic is kind of a pile of crap. I think being able to see this incredible recreation of the boat is amazing and all of the craftspeople who worked on it did a stellar job. There is certainly a lot to appreciate there. That being said, it's Cameron's worst movie, it's Leo's worst performance and he's one of the great actors of our generation, it's Winslet's worst performance arguably (though I haven't seen them all), and the love story is terrible. They just met, WHAT love story?! The story overall is almost as bad as the dialogue and the cardboard antagonist and the ridiculousness of every rich person basically being a terrible jerk. That being said, I can separate my opinion of the film from my amazement and interest over the box office performance. It truly was amazing to behold and is something you look back on and say, dang, will I ever see that again? So I can appreciate and be in awe of the box office but not think much of the movie. I don't want to be dramatic, though, I'd still give Titanic 3 stars out of 4 because visually it is that good and there's just something cool about being able to see the boat and all of the details in such a faithfully recreated way. Well then you have agreed with me completely, not to an extent, because this post is exactly what I meant. You can consider Titanic as the worst piece of shit of all time and consider let's say Spiderman 3 the greatest film of all time, but you can't say just because of your movie opinions you think SM3 2.2x-multiplier boxoffice run is more epic than Titanic's 20x. That'd be ridiculous. "To separate my opinion of the film from my amazement and interest over the box office performance", that's exactly what I'm trying to say. Edited December 24, 2015 by vc2002 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 10 minutes ago, peludo said: We could start to talk too about beating Avatar WW with today exchange rates, which is about 2.3 billion. lol. I like that(because I totally agree, all things being equal TFA would have a nice shot at Avatar). But that is pretty close to Titanic WW w/ 3d rerelease. I doubt that will get many headlines. I mean we never seen major media articles about adjusted grosses why would we see one with adjusted for currency exchange rates grosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I was totally invested in Titanic's run because I also love that movie. But that was pre mojo days. You had to go to box office guru every Sunday to see what it had done on the weekend. Then in 2002 everything changed when I discovered Box Office Mojo. When I say this is the most excited I've been following the film, I just mean in the internet days where we could follow it daily. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Okay, but what if today, it drops to like $25M because course correction for the splendid run so far, and then, it surges to a $70M Christmas day just because it can. And then, Saturday, it upticks to $75M. And then, Sunday is like $65M. YAS or YAS? Over or under TA and JW?!?!? Is this what everyone meant when they said it wouldn't beat either cause Christmas holidays??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 titanic is still represent the modern age of gone with the wind, Jack and Rose is still the most memorable couple in recent history. but, well, perhaps it's time to let titanic left its crown~~~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: I was totally invested in Titanic's run because I also love that movie. But that was pre mojo days. You had to go to box office guru every Sunday to see what it had done on the weekend. Then in 2002 everything changed when I discovered Box Office Mojo. When I say this is the most excited I've been following the film, I just mean in the internet days where we could follow it daily. OS is a bit of a really different story, and I started to follow boxoffice since TDK, but to me Avatar's OS boxoffice run is the most epic and exciting. 6 consecutive 100m+ wknds, and the OS total would alone be the highest grossing film of all time. Again, I love Avatar more than Titanic, but if I ever had the chance to follow Titanic's boxoffice run, there's no doubt that I would find that a hell lot more enjoyable. Edited December 24, 2015 by vc2002 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaldun Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 57 minutes ago, tokila said: Star War is the USA's epic (like I saw someone else note). The fact other countries love it too is just gravy. I would love it to be number 1 WW, but just dont see it happening. Yeah i don't see it happening either but it still does incredible numbers in many other countries, notably in Europe. But the exchange rates doesn't help the toal gross. 44 minutes ago, pepsa said: This is an amazing Wednesday hold now the sky is the limit. I do expect it to fall off at some point. I mean everything above 1B is totaly insane. I guess 2.5B Dom is the celling cause then every american/canadian would have seen the movie (Even the litle babys) Well they could all see it several times, and they better do it. 36 minutes ago, tokila said: We should stop with this beating Avatar WW stuff. Realize this with me. No film except for Avatar has beaten Titanic's initial run WW gross (1.8 bil). JW is closest with 1.67 bil. Goal 1. Beat Titanic original run WW. 1.8 Bil. Goal 2. Beat Titanic including 3D rerelease. 2.186 Bil. After those 2 things happen then we should start talking about Avatar WW. Yeah, beating Titanic WW (though thanks to inflation, nowhere near it in admissions) would be huge already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Never gave a fuck about Avatar or Titanic. So, I'm ready for the new king (Queen) of the box office, Rey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I plugged in a few numbers -- this sounds like weird math, but bear with me -- comparing a film's Christmas gross to its Monday gross of that week where relevant and those estimates landed a TFA x-mas total between $56M and $58M. I'm not saying that is a reasonable expectation, I'm just saying that if it made $40M Monday, and that wasn't a fluke clearly as it nearly did the same Tuesday and (apparently) Wednesday, it stands to reason it's going to increase dramatically on X-Mas day. If someone is saying $50M X-Mas day, I have to wonder why? We already know X-Mas was the 3rd biggest day for pre-sales so unless the pre-sales absolutely do not correlate with the attendance (i.e. walk up numbers are much smaller), it seems odd it would only be an increase of 25% from Monday when most films increase more like 40%. Not to mention a much smaller portion of people were off Monday compared to Friday for X-Mas. I know it kind of sounds crazy because last Friday was, what, $62M without previews? But $55M Christmas day does seem possible. It's less crazy when you remember that a lot of people who badly wanted to see it did see it during previews, so the afternoon showings weren't as crazy as they could be on a day off a week later. The night showings may perform a bit weaker but given the apparent demand and it being a big moviegoing day, it seems possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 4 minutes ago, Rey said: Okay, but what if today, it drops to like $25M because course correction for the splendid run so far, and then, it surges to a $70M Christmas day just because it can. And then, Saturday, it upticks to $75M. And then, Sunday is like $65M. YAS or YAS? Over or under TA and JW?!?!? Is this what everyone meant when they said it wouldn't beat either cause Christmas holidays??? 25 mil would not be a course correction. Thats a 34% drop for Cmas eve. Avatar was 32% with Cmas eve falling on a thursday too. Titanic fell 40% but its CMas eve was a Wed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harpospoke Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 hours ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said: This whole adjusted/unadjusted makes it look like the movie made more than it did when it didn't.. I don't believe for 1 minute that MENACE would've made 700M, especially with Jar Jar Binks: A character that divided the fanbase down the middle.. I don't buy it.. Well I paid to see it 4 times and I hate it with a passion. Lots of denial going on in the fanbase. I appreciate the lesson it taught me though. I don't do that anymore. 2 hours ago, Darth AndyLL said: You know another thing TFA is screwing up? The charts I'm trying to develop for the Derby. How can I display decent charts of the movies when TFA's numbers are so out of scale from the rest... That's just fun to look at! 47 minutes ago, tokila said: ya. The Euro being 30% weaker now than in 2009 will probably prevent TFA from taking out Avatar WW. That sounds like two options: 1-Don't place any importance on WW numbers if something like that and the weird China rules give one movie a box office advantage over another one. 2-Find a way to adjust for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just now, JonathanLB said: I plugged in a few numbers -- this sounds like weird math, but bear with me -- comparing a film's Christmas gross to its Monday gross of that week where relevant and those estimates landed a TFA x-mas total between $56M and $58M. I'm not saying that is a reasonable expectation, I'm just saying that if it made $40M Monday, and that wasn't a fluke clearly as it nearly did the same Tuesday and (apparently) Wednesday, it stands to reason it's going to increase dramatically on X-Mas day. If someone is saying $50M X-Mas day, I have to wonder why? We already know X-Mas was the 3rd biggest day for pre-sales so unless the pre-sales absolutely do not correlate with the attendance (i.e. walk up numbers are much smaller), it seems odd it would only be an increase of 25% from Monday when most films increase more like 40%. Not to mention a much smaller portion of people were off Monday compared to Friday for X-Mas. I know it kind of sounds crazy because last Friday was, what, $62M without previews? But $55M Christmas day does seem possible. It's less crazy when you remember that a lot of people who badly wanted to see it did see it during previews, so the afternoon showings weren't as crazy as they could be on a day off a week later. The night showings may perform a bit weaker but given the apparent demand and it being a big moviegoing day, it seems possible. all good points. The only negative way to spin the Cmas presales would be to say people made specific Cmas day plans to see TFA with family so they went ahead and preordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 minutes ago, tokila said: 25 mil would not be a course correction. That's a 34% drop for Cmas eve. Avatar was 32% with Cmas eve falling on a thursday too. Titanic fell 40% but its CMas Eve was a Wed. I'm messing, babe! I'm not being serious. Lol. Watch me be right though, DEATH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 34 minutes ago, Vadermort said: How much did it collect on wednesday? $35-$37m ? Est of Rtt are between 37-39M so evern or higher than tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) OW 248m (119, 68, 61) 1st week 137m (40, 37, 38, 22) 2nd weekend 155m (50, 58, 47) 2nd week 117m (35, 31, 30, 21) 3rd weekend 84m (33, 30, 21) total after 3rd weekend ~ 750m total domestic gross ~ 950m Edited December 24, 2015 by The Stingray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Even if it drops 40% today its going to do more than 140 on the weekend. Its just silly at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
