ZOOTOPIA | 682.5 M overseas ● 1023.8 M worldwide

[TalismanRing]

So, Zootopia over BvS WW?  yay or nay?

[edroger3]

37 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

Although it is really unfair to include in this comparison numbers for UK (where Zootopia just opened) and Japan, since those are usually 2 of the strongest markets for animation films. A more fair comp would be OS minus China, UK and Japan. 

 

Minions     639,5

Frozen      513,8

IO             393,2

Tangled    327

Zootopia   247,7

BH6          243,1

WiR          215,9

 

Zootopia's legs from current markets will carry it over Tangled and close to IO. So it won't be a Minions/Frozen level phenomenon OS but it's gonna be much bigger than any other recent WDAS film outside of Frozen. And even if it doesn't break out in UK and Japan, it's certainly gonna fly over 400m OS - China.

 

I said  "waiting for UK and Japan". At the moment, in the other international markets, this movie isn't so impressive and not well marketed, cause, I repeat, Zootopia don't have a great brand/licensing potential  and Disney isn't really interested to promote it. Certainly it has a great wom and is strong on social media, but this is generated (like Inside Out) much more by adults than by children: adults don't buy toys, they only pay for them. Usually, the great toy brand borns when we have an "adult-children" convergence of interest ( "childrens want them but adults want them more").
BTW this weekend Zootopia make 42M OS but only 18M came from non UK and China markets despite in many countries childrens are out of school. So it is very very hard find another 80M+ outside UK and China to pass at least Tangled according to your chart. 

8 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

 

Indeed. Big Hero 6's total overseas gross is 435 million. Zootopia will come close to that number even without China gross which is really impressive!

It need another 200M, I think would be really very impressive.

[cannastop]

50 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

So, Zootopia over BvS WW?  yay or nay?

Only if Zootopia makes ¥20 billion. Or around that area.

Edited March 28, 2016 by cannastop

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Only Zootopia makes ¥20 billion. Or around that area.

 

It's at $700m now.  It has another $65-75m from the US (maybe more).  It made $42.5 O/S and could conceivably make another $75m O/S even though it's sadly losing China prematurely.   I think BH6 numbers could do it.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2016 by TalismanRing

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's at $700m now.  It has another $65-75m from the US (maybe more).  It made $42.5 O/S and could conceivably make another $80-100m O/S even though it's sadly losing China prematurely.   I think BH6 numbers could do it, maybe even less.

So, are you saying that $900 million worldwide might be enough to beat BvS?

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

So, are you saying that $900 million worldwide might be enough to beat BvS?

 

Maybe $925.    BH6 did $76m in Japan.

[Dingdong123]

Japan will be the deciding factor if 1B WW will be reached. Over BH6 might be enough to push it to a billlion.

 

I see BvS doing 1-1.1 billion WW, so Zootopia only has a very slim chance of passing it WW.

[Joel M]

38 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

BTW this weekend Zootopia make 42M OS but only 18M came from non UK and China markets despite in many countries childrens are out of school. So it is very very hard find another 80M+ outside UK and China to pass at least Tangled according to your chart. 

It need another 200M, I think would be really very impressive.

 

You are right about that one. I didn't knew that outside of China-UK it had just a 18m OS weekend. I still think it can leg its way to 300m OS minus China/Jap/UK, animations have much better legs than most movies OS. And the combo of UK-Japan I think will get it to 400m-China. It won't touch Tangled and Frozen numbers in most of Western Europe since those countries go nuts for Disney renaissance movie, but it's making up for it in other territories outside of China.

 

Let's say it does another 6m (1/3 of the weekend) Mon-Thurs in those countries for a 24m week. 

 

with 40% weekly drops 290m

with 35%                       300m

with 30%                       310m

 

I think it'll fall into that range. Add 30-40m in UK depending on how it'll hold there and then you have Japan which is always a questionmark. Who knows how much it'll do there.

[TalismanRing]

29 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

Japan will be the deciding factor if 1B WW will be reached. Over BH6 might be enough to push it to a billlion.

 

I see BvS doing 1-1.1 billion WW, so Zootopia only has a very slim chance of passing it WW.

 

I don't think BvS is touching $1b.  Maybe not even $950m.

[Quigley]

12 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I don't think BvS is touching $1b.  Maybe not even $950m.

 

If one can judge from the Monday drop, it was very bad in China (worse than Spectre) and in the US ($15M according to Rth) it was worse than Clash of the Titans and G.I. Joe: Retaliation. It was on par with Furious 7. No indication as yet of good legs. More like a precipitous decline. So although $1B is still likely, it is no way guaranteed.

[Purple Minion]

700M WW baby!

 

@boxifficemojo '@DisneyZootopia' just had its best Monday yet as it crosses $700m worldwide https://t.co/C9TzHKtNYW

[Aristis]

These legs are really incredible! 1. Monday: $4.54M, 2. $4.6M, 3. $3.72M, 4. $4.74M (Of course it's holiday nonetheless it is outstanding)

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, Aristis said:

These legs are really incredible! 1. Monday: $4.54M, 2. $4.6M, 3. $3.72M, 4. $4.74M (Of course it's holiday nonetheless it is outstanding)

Well, Easter Monday is not really a holiday in the USA. Some schools might be on Spring Break, though.

[Murgatroyd]

On March 29, 2016 at 3:31 PM, cannastop said:

Well, Easter Monday is not really a holiday in the USA. Some schools might be on Spring Break, though.

 

For animated movies, Easter Monday in the US is typically about halfway between weekday and weekend numbers. So, not a holiday, but considerably stronger than usual, even when you take Spring Break into account.

[kayumanggi]

465.5 M overseas | 718.2 M worldwide

[cannastop]

On 2/19/2016 at 9:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bombed in korea as well.

In retrospect:

 

LOL

[cannastop]

On 3/4/2016 at 5:56 AM, Omni said:

Thinking 300 millions from China & Japan is just irrational. And 350 dom is not happening. 

800 millions WW is the real target.

$80 million from Japan, and that will be the reality.

[CelestialFairyIX]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

$80 million from Japan, and that will be the reality.

That'll require a phenomenon-level performance.  8.9 billion yen would be two times what the ceiling, according to Corpse, is.  It's not impossible but the Japanese audience will have to eat it up like sushi.

 

- 8.9 billion yen, 2016 = roughly $80 million

- 8.9 billion yen, 2011/12 = roughly $117 million

 

Yeah... 

 

Edited April 1, 2016 by CelestialFairyIX

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

That'll require a phenomenon-level performance.  8.9 billion yen would be two times what the ceiling, according to Corpse, is.  It's not impossible but the Japanese audience will have to eat it up like sushi.

 

- 8.9 billion yen, 2016 = roughly $80 million

- 8.9 billion yen, 2010 = roughly $114 million

 

Yeah... 

 

Who is Corpse?

Anyways, $80 million might not be necessary. It might be $240 in China and $60 million in Japan. And hey, they dubbed "Try Everything" into Japanese, so maybe that will push it over the edge.

[CelestialFairyIX]

8 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

That'll require a phenomenon-level performance.  8.9 billion yen would be two times what the ceiling, according to Corpse, is.  It's not impossible but the Japanese audience will have to eat it up like sushi.  

Corpse is the person who runs the Japanese box office forum on KJ.  He was also the person who provided daily updates on Frozen during it's historic Japanese box office run and got the page from like 50 pages to 400 REAL QUICK (75% of the pages are from Frozen's run).   Sadly, he retreated back to KJ after an unknown incident occurred.  Anyways, I asked him what he predicts Zootopia to earn and he said 5 billion yen or roughly $44 million.  His estimations are almost always in line with a film's final gross.  Of course, there are the outliers and hopefully Zootopia becomes one as well.  

 

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322&sid=c1606747c9d2be64ee2933c7b1f59e23&start=7250