ZOOTOPIA | 682.5 M overseas ● 1023.8 M worldwide

[Jason]

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

So where did the missing money come from if the UK and Japan results fell short? Domestic got underestimated by $20-40 million, but it was the legs in the other markets that were severely underestimated.

 

Here's a table showing the totals as of March 20 and May 15, and the increase between those dates.

 

Market	Mar 20	May 15	Increase
Domestic	$200,929,655	$331,840,173	$130,910,518
China	$173,023,395	$236,086,416	$63,063,021
Germany	$16,747,202	$32,200,000	$15,452,798
Australia	$3,641,279	$20,270,172	$16,628,893
Russia - CIS	$26,225,670	$34,852,128	$8,626,458
Brazil	$2,574,107	$12,322,013	$9,747,906
South Korea	$18,842,070	$31,538,191	$12,696,121
Japan	$0	$34,335,852	$34,335,852
United Kingdom	$0	$33,099,928	$33,099,928
Other Markets	$148,846,277	$204,295,300	$55,449,023

 

Using this info, let's try and find the missing money. I'm going to assume a domestic total of about $340M, and that about $6M total will come from Turkey and remaining overseas markets excluding Japan. ("Other Markets" will have final total of $210M)

 

1 hour ago, LMAbacus said:

On 3/15/2016 at 11:37 PM, Arlo245 said:

I believe Zootopia could hit $1 billion WW with $300 million domestic, $250 million China, $140 million Japan and $310 for the other markets

 

So domestic will come in about $40M higher, China $14M lower. All other markets combined though are at about $369M, with about $6M still to come (remaining OS + Turkey).

About $105M in underestimates, $14M in overestimates, therefore amount required from Japan about $90M less than estimated.

 

1 hour ago, LMAbacus said:

  On 3/20/2016 at 11:44 AM, Olive said:

If it makes 100M in Japan which I think is very difficult, then 1b $ will happen.

Current total 390M

China will contribute another 50M

Other maekets (29.1M weekend) - 100M

UK- 50M

Jp -100M(I think it will be closer to $50M instead)

Others - 10M

700M OS with optimistic projection.

And DOM 300-320?

 

China contributed another $63M ($13M higher). UK contributed $33M ($17M lower). Remaining markets (excluding Japan) will contribute about $125M ($15M higher). Domestic will be about $340M ($40M over requirement of $300M for $1B). Overall, $68M in underestimates, $17M in underestimates, amount required from Japan about $50M less than estimated.

 

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

  On 3/26/2016 at 4:53 PM, CelestialFairyIX said:

Zootopia:

~ $320 million, US + Canada

~ $220 million, China

~ $70 - 90 million, Japan

~ $40 - 60 million, United Kingdom

~ $25 - 30 million, South Korea

~ $20 - 30 million, Australia 

~ $27 - 30 million, Russia 

~ $150 - 200 million, other markets + holdovers

 

Total: $872 - 980 million

 

Domestic $20M higher, China $16M higher, UK $27M less than upper estimate, SK $1.5M higher, Russia $5M higher. All other markets will come to about $243M, $43M higher than upper estimate. Using the upper range and excluding Japan, about $85M in underestimates, $27M in overestimates.

 

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

On 3/21/2016 at 3:32 AM, Infernus said:

So this is at 590m WW now.

 

We have a most probable 110m more from US (this will still require pretty good legs but the legs have been very good uptil now. More than this is quite unlikely because of the effect BvS will have. BvS has, more or less, a 4 quad appeal just like this plus it will be quite big so whatever you may say, it will definitely affect this and every other film)

 

We also have 50m more from China (for a 225m most probable final total)

 

We have a most probable 45m in UK (ofcourse it can breakout and make 60m or flop and not even get to 35 but we are talking about the most probable target)

 

We have 65m more from Japan (a little less than Big Hero 6 but that had very very good WOM and exceptional multiplier so straightoff assuming a similar total might be too presumptuous. 65 is already more than most movies have made in recent years. Boy and the beast was the highest grossing japanese movie last year and overall, almost, the third highest grossing movie (behind the likes of JW and SW) and also got very very good WOM. It made 47m$)

 

We have 15m more from Australia (with good WOM)

 

We have probably 8m more from Brazil.

 

Maybe another 10m from other markets left to open

 

Then, we have 35m more probably from remaining holdovers (21.5m weekend. BvS to follow. Easter close.)

 

That leaves us with a final total of - 930m. This is the most probable final total.

 

Most of the estimates are pretty close, although domestic will end up being close to $140M more ($30M higher than estimate). China came in $11M more than estimate, UK came in only $12M less. Australia did about $20M ($5M over), Brazil $10M ($2M over). However, only $45M was predicted from remaining markets, and that total is at $92M, and will end up being about $98M. ($53M underestimated)

 

Overall, about $100M in underestimates, $12M in overestimates, accounting for the most probable total coming about $70M short even with the $65M Japan estimate.

The general trend is that everyone did a pretty decent job on the foreign markets they specifically identified. However, the domestic market and remaining unspecified foreign markets (which varied from person to person) were underestimated by enough to greatly reduce the amount required from the UK and Japan for a $1B total.

 

[Olive]

Domestic:	$334,403,528	34.1%
+ Foreign:	$647,400,000	65.9%
= Worldwide:	$981,803,528

[Jason]

9 minutes ago, Olive said:

Domestic:	$334,403,528	34.1%
+ Foreign:	$647,400,000	65.9%
= Worldwide:	$981,803,528

 

Will pass TLK for fourth highest-grossing animated film of all time by next weekend. Should pass $1B by June 12.

[Quigley]

Naah, should pass $1B by June 5

[Agafin]

Excellent for Zootopia. It actually made more this week than last week which is just terrific. Given that DOM dropped by about 30% this week (~1 million), this means that most OS territories increased (not only Japan) from last week. And these are just estimates, actuals may go up as they always do.  And there's still Turkey left to open. Zootopia won't just barely cross $1 billion it seems, it's going to beat TDK and potentially go all the way to 21 (above JP) in the best case.

[cannastop]

On 2/27/2016 at 0:01 PM, firedeep said:

So Zootopia is Croods 2.0.

 

1B (300+700) is totally possible.

 

WDA is such a monster-hit-maker.

Gotta hand it to this guy, this was pretty spot-on.

 

edit:

 

Granted, he said this before the movie even opened in USA+Canada or China.

Edited May 22, 2016 by cannastop

[CelestialFairyIX]

Zootopia:

~ Current estimated Gross: $42 million

~ Current estimated multiplier: 10x 

~ Estimated final gross: $77 - 90+ million

~ Estimated final multiplier: 19 - 22

 

If the higher end of the estimates reign true, Zootopia will have the 5th/6th best multiplier of any film, be in the Top 40 of highest grossing films of all time (in local currency), be the second highest grossing Walt Disney Animation Studios release if it manages to beat Big Hero 6, and possibly finish No. 2/3 of the highest grossing films of 2016.  IF Zootopia manages to nab second place, third place will most likely go to Finding Dory meaning Disney will take control of the Top 3 spots of 201 at the Japan Box Office.

 

GO DISNEY! 

[RichWS]

It's really gonna break a billion? My hats off. I poke fun at cannastop, but I'm a fan of the film.

[yjs]

1 hour ago, RichWS said:

It's really gonna break a billion? My hats off. I poke fun at cannastop, but I'm a fan of the film.

 

isn't @cannastop like the Judy Hopps of the forum? proving doubters wrong. haha

[JohnnyG99]

1 hour ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

IF Zootopia manages to nab second place, third place will most likely go to Finding Dory meaning Disney will take control of the Top 3 spots of 201 at the Japan Box Office.

 

What would be the number 1 movie?

[cannastop]

Just now, yjs said:

 

isn't @cannastop like the Judy Hopps of the forum? proving doubters wrong. haha

Aw, thank you!

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, RichWS said:

It's really gonna break a billion? My hats off. I poke fun at cannastop, but I'm a fan of the film.

A fan of its box office run, or of the movie itself?

[RichWS]

Just now, cannastop said:

A fan of its box office run, or of the movie itself?

 

"I'm a fan of the film" 

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyG99 said:

 

What would be the number 1 movie?

Rouge One, maybe.

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Rouge One, maybe.

 

I think it's TFA. Corpse's numbers have the year starting in December, not January.

[kayumanggi]

648.0 M overseas | 982.4 M worldwide 

[Fullbuster]

I finally watched it, and what can I say? OMG I REALLY love it : Funny, smart, incredibly beautiful and totally in the spirit of the times with a powerful message in an era of rising hatred and fears.

[LMAbacus]

33 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I finally watched it, and what can I say? OMG I REALLY love it : Funny, smart, incredibly beautiful and totally in the spirit of the times with a powerful message in an era of rising hatred and fears.

 

You're in France? Is it still showing there?

[Fullbuster]

10 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

You're in France? Is it still showing there?

Yes I'm in France. No, a cinema in a suburb organized a Disney weekend (+Monday) with Zootopia, Frozen, Tangled and Big Hero 6 being shown, I had to seize the opportunity Got lucky on this one

Edited May 23, 2016 by Fullbuster

[Max]

47 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Yes I'm in France. No, a cinema in a suburb organized a Disney weekend (+Monday) with Zootopia, Frozen, Tangled and Big Hero 6 being shown, I had to seize the opportunity Got lucky on this one

 

Good man.

You didn't succumb to the temptation of the streaming! Two days ago, a downloadable HD version was (unfortunately) released online so my fellow countrymen who didn't buy the cinema ticket jumped on the opportunity to download the movie. (How irritating really ). Anyway, I am glad you enjoyed it!

@LMAbacus The movie is still showing but mainly in Paris and the suburbs. It is probably still showing in the very large cities such as Lyon but I am not 100% sure. When I think about it, Zootopia was released here on the 17th of February, that's crazy.

Edited May 23, 2016 by Max
delete some words