TriggerMike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1 minute ago, Baumer Fett said: You can say that about almost all movies. Original means it doesn't have pre-existing material. See you're point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, Magic said: Since TPM no film has sold more than about 76M tickets domestically (at least I don't think) . If this does 110M or so, that's lots of tickets in comparison. Especially in an era when people have Netflix, back in 1997 and 1999, people were playing with sticks and had nothing to do. TFA is selling all the tickets. All of them. The theatre workers just let them in. It's true, all of it. It's my birthday today, and I got a card with Yoda on it that says "much to celebrate there is", which is fitting. Destroying the box office TFA is. Might go and see TFA today for the sixth time today. I forgot what happened when I saw it the first 5 times, that's my excuse anyway. Happy b-day, and no excuses needed to keep seeing TFA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, GiantCALBears said: Uhhhhh except TFA did not defy understanding since expectations even on here won't be met for it. Absolutely no one predicted the success Avatar had & it's not even close. Well, yes Avatar is definitely a more surprising boxoffice story than TFA. But TFA defied our understanding in the sense that in this excessive entertainment digital internet era, a movie, no matter how well marketed how big the fanbase is how well-received, is just not supposed to hit 100m in admissions. That's what we learned from Shrek 2, TDK, Avatar, TA1 and JW, and SW7 stood out and broke it. Avatar defied our understand because this is an era that films based on existing material dominates everything and movies getting more and more frontloaded, and an original movie with an average opening actually becoming the highest grossing film of alltime is not supposed to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Uhhhhh except TFA did not defy understanding since expectations even on here won't be met for it. Absolutely no one predicted the success Avatar had & it's not even close. In terms of surpise, Avatar surely takes the cake. In terms of magnitude, scale and scope, TFA will eclipse it by a significant margin, and is historically on the order of a very small number of films (Titanic, ANH, etc.) And to be fair, very few here predicted TFA would beat Avatar, let alone flirt with $1B. It's opening and legs combination is surely defying any expectations most of us have ever had about how a film can perform at the box office. In the age of the mega opening weekend, this kind of run is totally unprecedented. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Avatar's run was extremely impressive. TFA's is even more so. I really don't understand how it can be said any other way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 7 minutes ago, TriggerMike said: Avatar was not orginal... Rip off of Dances with Wolves. TFA a ripoff of ANH? We can go on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Why all the hostility? T'is the season to be jolly and merry. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 "Impressive" and "surprising" aren't synonyms by the way. If we are merely talking about "surprising" runs, then OK I suppose Avatar still takes the cake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said: So, what would you say are the odds that we're getting a 3rd week-end that's higher than Jurassic's 2nd week-end? I think it will be tight. I've predicted an arbitrary drop of about 32%. That's about 3.5X the amount that Avatar dropped, but it's also grossing 5X as much as Avatar is right now, so it will not drop 10% next weekend. So I think it will be close, but ultimately I think it will fall just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 9 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Uhhhhh except TFA did not defy understanding since expectations even on here won't be met for it. Absolutely no one predicted the success Avatar had & it's not even close. Very few people predicted over 900 m for TFA. Look at the Winter Game predictions. It was only after presales shattered records in December that predictions skyrocketed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 2 minutes ago, K1Rey said: Why all the hostility? T'is the season to be jolly and merry. Where did you get that from? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark 33Legend of the Sith Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Been away most of the day and just caught up. 153 million plus 2nd weekend 100 million plus third weekend in sight... I think I just wet myself. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, Baumer Fett said: I think it will be tight. I've predicted an arbitrary drop of about 32%. That's about 3.5X the amount that Avatar dropped, but it's also grossing 5X as much as Avatar is right now, so it will not drop 10% next weekend. So I think it will be close, but ultimately I think it will fall just short. We need to know Monday's number first. If we take out Friday, all of its other post OW daily holds have still been in the same ballpark as Avatar's. That had even better second weekday holds than its first weekdays. I don't know if TFA can manage that, but if it does then I see no way it goes below 115 next weekend. Again, Monday will tell us much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: We need to know Monday's number first. If we take out Friday, all of its other post OW daily holds have still been in the same ballpark as Avatar's. That had even better second weekday holds than its first weekdays. I don't know if TFA can manage that, but if it does then I see no way it goes below 115 next weekend. Again, Monday will tell us much. $25.5 million tomorrow, $96 million 3rd weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 11 minutes ago, darthdevidem01 said: Let's not go down this rabbit hole as such statements can be made about almost any film. But you can't tell exactly how every film is gonna play out within the first 20 minutes. Theres influence and then theres ripping off, Avatar ripped off. And yes, I beat that dead horse one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: We need to know Monday's number first. If we take out Friday, all of its other post OW daily holds have still been in the same ballpark as Avatar's. That had even better second weekday holds than its first weekdays. I don't know if TFA can manage that, but if it does then I see no way it goes below 115 next weekend. Again, Monday will tell us much. That's a 25% drop. That would just be insanely ridiculous. I hope you are right, but I personally don't see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think different runs can be impressive in totally different ways. I am seeing both sides of what you guys are writing here. Avatar was incredibly impressive because it appeared to be just a sci-fi movie with this new gimmicky technology nobody was quite sure about. It opened up to a relatively underwhelming $77M amidst bad winter weather. You could have been forgiven for predicting it to finish at $250M and even thought that was a solid success, all things considered. What it did defied the gravity that movies have at the box office in today's marketplace. Movies don't just make the same amount of money pretty much every weekend for a while. That's not how 99.99% of movies ever function, so seeing that was truly astounding. It was Titanic on steroids, like slightly less staying power but mainly because its opening was 2.5x bigger. Kind of funny since TFA's opening was about the same amount bigger compared to Avatar as Avatar was to Titanic. That being said, TFA's run is impressive so far in a very different way. Again, movies that open so massive usually fall very hard. I thought it was quite impressive -- not sure about you guys because I wasn't around here at the time -- that Jurassic World managed just a 49% decline after that massive OW. It could have easily fell 60% after that and nobody would have been overly surprised, not with that huge opening. It would have still been on its way to a final gross of $500M or above when most people predicted it would make somewhere in the $300M to $450M range at best. That's why seeing TFA barely decline in its second weekend once previews are removed is so incredibly impressive, because already a sub-50% decline is very good for these massive openers. Look at DH2, that film tanked big time after opening weekend despite excellent reviews and great word of mouth. DH2 is a primary example of how it's not really being fair to say, "Well Avatar had no fan base, it was totally new, and Star Wars has the biggest fan base ever, thus why it's not impressive as much that TFA is doing this." Well... ok, but remember, that's a strong double-edged sword. On the one hand, a built-in fan base is HUGELY helpful to propelling a movie to at least $200M if not $300M if the fan base is big enough. But there are always those people who say, "Oh, yeah I heard the new Star Wars is great, but I just haven't seen the other ones" or "I only saw a few of the old ones and I just don't remember them that well. I think I'll wait for DVD and check it out then." That's the ones who are being nice! The other ones are like, "Oh god Star Wars, that's for dorks and losers, I'm not gonna see that thing. So lame." They heard Avatar had a love story and maybe gave it a chance. TFA -- thank god -- has no love story (one reason why order is going to be restored when it ranks first, I'm so sick of love stories being crammed into every movie for no reason; put them in where appropriate, and hold them out where they don't need it). Yet it's still getting a big female audience compared to the past films especially, I think. One of the more interesting things to note I think is how this will make the 3rd straight film that takes #1 with the exact same weekend release date! Uncanny. And Avatar shared the same exact date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: Where did you get that from? Just looked up some funny star wars gifs http://giphy.com/search/star-wars 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Call me crazy, but I don't think 1 billion is locked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 AVATAR is pretty great. SW is pretty great. Both had amazing box-office runs. Dunno why everyone feels the need to denigrate one or the other to celebrate their own fave. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
