Dark 33Legend of the Sith Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I know Universal isn't complaining at all, but what tough luck for JW to put up 652 million and not win the domestic crown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If TFA gets $100m this weekend then $1b is the floor. Both JW and TA made another $250m after $100m weekend. There's no way TFA holds worse than TA and JW when it has 1 week advantage (movies usually hold better later in their run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I am not seeing 1 billion but the range creeps higher. Before 900 million was assured, now 930, 940 now 950. Would love to see a billion, would be so damn epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 (edited) 7 hours ago, Elessar said: The drop has more to do with the fact that this year might be a little bit different than 2009, or the demographic is a little bit different than Avatar's. Friday jump could be muted. Must you shit on this fine number. 7 hours ago, picores said: Agree. Must you wipe his ass Edited January 1, 2016 by No Prisoners 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damianport1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 WOW Look at Joy numbers! 20% up from Wed! Thats stunning! Every other film dropped but Joy! And Remember when Joy had biggest drop on monday? crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm having trouble coming up with any model that is less than $950M frankly. Even with a 65% dive in midweek totals next week, which is probably to be expected, I still can't see how it doesn't nearly hit $1B. What people are saying is, gee, yeah this film fell 38% WITH PREVIEWS INCLUDED after a record OW, but magically it's going to fall worse than 40% every single weekend afterwards. Huh...? Please explain that logic. Because most movies fall more softly, not as hard as a rock. The logic isn't there, plain and simple. That's why people are saying $1B. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Joy also appeals to the demo least likely to be distracted yesterday - adult women. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, bladels said: If TFA gets $100m this weekend then $1b is the floor. Both JW and TA made another $250m after $100m weekend. There's no way TFA holds worse than TA and JW when it has 1 week advantage (movies usually hold better later in their run). I'm with you there. Avatar +32% is probably around 275 right now, and will likely add more this weekend. I just don't see how TFA gives almost $300M back in that comparison. Maybe $200M for a $1.1B domestic haul. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 (edited) Please remember (before poking at 'opposite' fans and in general) Estimates: I can't wait for Monday (here probably late in the evening) for all movie's actuals (and OS even days later) It seems there will be some early mornings revenues too see Gitesh tweet about SW 7 passing JW today in the morming for getting #1 in 2015. Again, estimates... Monday... For the newbes: all money made after midnight till morning counts as the day before. Exceptions are opening days, then the earlies vie pre-views count as Friday Edited January 1, 2016 by terrestrial typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 1 minute ago, JonathanLB said: I'm having trouble coming up with any model that is less than $950M frankly. Even with a 65% dive in midweek totals next week, which is probably to be expected, I still can't see how it doesn't nearly hit $1B. What people are saying is, gee, yeah this film fell 38% WITH PREVIEWS INCLUDED after a record OW, but magically it's going to fall worse than 40% every single weekend afterwards. Huh...? Please explain that logic. Because most movies fall more softly, not as hard as a rock. The logic isn't there, plain and simple. That's why people are saying $1B. I think some people are holding on to the notion that it will hit a demand wall after the holidays and drop like a rock. But coming off a $100M weekend, with no real competition in sight, I can't see how that happens. I expect the weekend holds to improve a bit to the -30% range until something hits the market that forces it to lose a lot of screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, terrestrial said: Please remember (before poking at 'opposite' fans and in general) Estimates: I can't wait for Monday (here probably late in the evening) for all movie's actuals (and OS even days later) It seems there will be some early mornings revenues too see Gitesh tweet about SW 7 passing JW today in the morming for getting #1 in 2015. Again, estimates... Monday... For the newbes: all money made after midnight till morning counts as the day before. Exceptions are opening days, then the earlies vie pre-views count as Friday At this point in the run, there are probably very few shows after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Suggestion: wait till the actuals of next Thursday are released, than, IMHO you can see a bit better how the 'back to school/work' market might react. I am not agreeing or disagreeing to anything (which numbers are possible), but I think you are too early in your 'I am sure about THAT' (fill in the different numbers the different members came up with) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Only 3 more movies in my top 15 left to reveal! What will win out? http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20852-the-pandas-best-15-films-of-2015/?page=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: At this point in the run, there are probably very few shows after midnight. I was surprised about that as well, see Gitesh's tweet, with ~ $300k missing and according .. and my question about late shows a few posts (by me) back ... wait I'll copy it in: Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya 42 mins42 minutes ago $22.9M THU for #StarWarsForceAwakens. $652M cume. Will race past #JurassicWorld this morning to become #1 film from 2015. Better wait till Monday celebrate or cry... Edited January 1, 2016 by terrestrial added Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, terrestrial said: I was surprised about that as well, see Gitesh's tweet, with ~ $300k missing and according .. and my question about late shows a few posts (by me) back ... wait I'll copy it in: Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya 42 mins42 minutes ago $22.9M THU for #StarWarsForceAwakens. $652M cume. Will race past #JurassicWorld this morning to become #1 film from 2015. Better wait till Monday celebrate or cry... He just means the first matinees will be enough to pass JW because the two films are so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: He just means the first matinees will be enough to pass JW because the two films are so close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: He just means the first matinees will be enough to pass JW because the two films are so close. $300k ? As so many cinemas open seemingly late based on parties = I as asking some posts back how, as I think for that $300k is not a small revenue. = I as surprised Gitesh thinks there will be that much. Then again, 'only' estimates. I think the ... mood a few were in the last few days it might be better to give the hints ealry, maybe some get used to it till later enough to not get as heated as some got see yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, terrestrial said: $300k ? As so many cinemas open seemingly late based on parties = I as asking some posts back how, as I think for that $300k is not a small revenue. = I as surprised Gitesh thinks there will be that much. Then again, 'only' estimates. I think the ... mood a few were in the last few days it might be better to give the hints ealry, maybe some get used to it till later enough to not get as heated as some got see yesterday No, he just means the morning shows -- 9am, 10am, etc -- will be enough, that's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 36 minutes ago, terrestrial said: I think because it is rather newly released, and it seems to be a feel good movie, might be a good film for this time of year and so on... Some do on the 31st. Demo thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Why do people even care about the calendar gross? It's just a nice trivia stat. American Sniper was the number one movie of 2014 and made basically nothing from that year. At least SW has made the majority of its gross in 2015. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
