Weekend Actuals: The Force Awakens - 90.2M !!!

[BadAtGender]

1 hour ago, Biph Shmata said:

I think there is a good chance Disney will buy $50 million in tickets to give to orphans to get it over $1 billion, they haven't shown much interest in fudging numbers for milestones, but that's one i'm sure they want.

 

They won't do that. It would be a horrible business decision. While studios are willing to use some tricks to get some milestones, they generally don't unless it's within a few million. Any more than that, and it's not worth the cost.

 

Note that Furious 7 didn't get pushed ahead of Avengers worldwide, despite coming within $5m.

 

34 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Here's an interesting table I made, comparing top 10 all-time grossers with and without china.

 

 

Furious 7 drops 4 ranks, HP gains 2, Avengers 2 drops 2 ranks, and Star Wars and Frozen climb 2 ranks.

 

I believe that removing China gives a much better picture of where the movies stand in all markets worldwide in terms of awareness. As we all know, Avengers 2 couldn't quite live to the first one in terms of hype, and it really shows this fact better if you remove china because the first one didn't make a fortune there. If you add China, suddenly it's not quite clear. Also, TA is barely behind Jurassic World without China, and the 2 so close together like this makes much more sense when you compare their numbers in all countries except China.

 

China's the RNG factor here when you really look at it. And it has benefited mainly movies from the last 2 years only.

 

Removing it gives a clearer picture of where movies stand, especially compared to movies older than 2012 (not shown on this list). This "modified" top 10 better showcases the "true" hype that those movies got worldwide. Was Furious 7 really as hyped as Avengers and Jurassic World, and more hyped than Harry Potter as well as Frozen? Did it have more, or any, impact than them? Not really, it didn't. It did on the all-time chart only because of China. #9 sounds a lot closer to where it belongs in terms of cultural impact after its run.

 

It also shows that Star Wars is really killing it worldwide, and should have no problems getting to Titanic's level when both are without China. It's already on JW and TA's level after 3 weeks.

 

And Avatar is pretty much out of reach, unless China shows up, and pulls a Furious 7 on Star Wars. 

 

I don't agree that excluding China gives a clearer picture. 

 

While it is a rapidly expanding market, it's not the only one. Latin America and Korea are also pulling in larger numbers over the past few years than they have in the past. Russia is also expanding (though it's been mitigated by some terrible exchange rates). If we're looking at flat, worldwide numbers without inflation, then we've got to take the whole package, even with all the changes that happen. Markets are always evolving.

 

Besides, it's not like F7 in China is the only example of a film on the above list that performed well above expectations. Frozen's Japan run is legendary, and well above its performance in any other country. Should it be excluded? Or Avengers DOM performance, which was pretty outsized compared to the rest of the world. (Minions, which TFA knocked out of the Top 10, was another relatively strong DOM performer.)

 

If you want to compare movies over time in all markets, I believe @peludo has their project to adjust films for inflation in every territory. (Slow going and needs to be manually done, but it's a valuable effort.) Or you can break things down regionally, because trying to do it on a country-by-country basis is time consuming and it can be easy to miss some of the details. Some people do it by continent, more or less, but there are other groupings. (I've toyed with trying to do one that puts the UK and Australia in with DOM.)

[vc2002]

14 minutes ago, Punishment said:

So, TFA might break the third weekend record in two days if these estimates hold up?

 

"The Force... It's an energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us and penetrates us. It binds the galaxy together."

 

It also provides preganancy.

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

For your purpose I disagree especially with the used Titanic numbers

IMHO is the 3D version, with opened up ratio, 3D added in a way even critics changed (with explaining why) their ratings... IMHO not the same as the original version.

It had it's own budget, advertising, ... reasons enough for people to want to see it again or to compare after 13 years. Not a simple re-release (those IMHO too shouldn't get used for comparisons to actual movies in the most cases)

$2,186.8m - $387.48m = $1799.32m = how I see it's run without China

 

Not sure what to think about your awareness theory, as at least some movies are strongly enough to place (wedge?) in certain genres that might not have the same impact/appeal than others to the GA / all ages / all genders.

E.g. I never watch animated movies, they do not appeal to me at all, no matter how good they might be.

 

I also would extract the dom part for the awareness part outside of the US and China

 

 

As we have for the moment so many newbes:

BOM's presentation for Titanic is scrambled, for the ones who are wondering = at a fast glance maybe not clear:

Titanic in China first release, according to BOM:

China  4/1/98                                                                 $43,928,666              Final

at their 3D page the dom is the sum of both, at the orignal page...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=titanic3d.htm

Titanic 3D re-release 2012

dom                                                                                    $57,884,114

FOREIGN TOTAL

-

4/4/12

$35,200,000

12.3%

$285,666,656

5/27/12

China

-

4/10/12

-

-

$145,000,000

6/3/12

[Biph Shmata]

5 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

They won't do that. It would be a horrible business decision. While studios are willing to use some tricks to get some milestones, they generally don't unless it's within a few million. Any more than that, and it's not worth the cost.

 

Note that Furious 7 didn't get pushed ahead of Avengers worldwide, despite coming within $5m.

 

It's not the same thing. $1 billion domestically is a BFD, if this movie or that movie is 4th or 5th place is not. Plus Star Wars isn't dependent on the movie alone for it's cash flow,it's estimated to have made $3 billion in merch sales alone in 2015, $50 million is about how much more AOU cost to make than TFA. 

[Daxtreme]

Ok so you don't agree, fine, but you can't deny that the Chinese market is heavily skewed toward recent movies, particularly the 2-3 last years.

 

It really undermines movies that came prior to that, heavily. It's not even close to inflation, we're talking +30-50% increase per year.

 

Inflation is like 2%/y

 

I still think that it gives a clearer picture but whatever. Especially right now since Star Wars' only missing market is China.

[terrestrial]

29 minutes ago, Biph Shmata said:

"Settle down, Francis" is from the 1981 Bill Murray and Harold Ramis comedy classic Stripes.

I don't view the fudging thing as that serious, it's at least half joking, like rooting for your favorite sports team to benefit from a bad call by the ref.

Yes, I think corporations and the people that run them are hyper-competitive and Disney won't blink twice about spending $50 million to be the first movie to hit $1 billion domestic. 

Haven't that movie.

Via 'jokes' like that oversused, we have now newbes believing that is a normal think in business, see several posts per day nw.

 

Not a realistic assumption.

 

57 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I don't really care how I'm viewed, or I wouldn't be on the opposite side as much as I am. As long as I'm not breaking site rules &/or hurting feelings. You can think whatever you want but I enjoyed TFA. I gave it an 8/10 after seeing it, I just have a lot of problems with the story & it being so similar to ANH which I've been very consistent about. I also have said just as much for forum members to separate their feelings on the quality of films vs the BO run. I've NEVER said I've been disappointed by anything about the run.

I care a lot about understanding people in the way they really are, to understand what their POV really is.

Something was off, felt wrong... 'crawled' under my skin. I should have asked sooner.

I do not doubt your explanations, I am very happy to have learned your POV. I'll start to include that knowledge into the interpretation / understanding of your future posts, thank you a lot for explaining.

[terrestrial]

11 minutes ago, Biph Shmata said:

It's not the same thing. $1 billion domestically is a BFD, if this movie or that movie is 4th or 5th place is not. Plus Star Wars isn't dependent on the movie alone for it's cash flow,it's estimated to have made $3 billion in merch sales alone in 2015, $50 million is about how much more AOU cost to make than TFA. 

You are aware about at least the older members here (as in being members for some time) are aware about merchandising income (and TV rights, HV, digital,...)?

To pay $50m for reaching $1b brings not on the ammount of money spend for reaching that milestone. Hence it will not be done.

They might spend some money for extra TV-spots... if the goal is considerable nearer.

Not sure if especially Disney would do even then that.

They do seem to like to stay under a certain milestone too much (joke, I doubt they care enough)

[terrestrial]

Universal hit $6.9bn global in 2015

Universal climbed 120% year-on-year to secure 22% market share in North America on $2.448bn and gained 212% on 2014 to record $4.44bn internationally....

http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/universal-hit-69bn-global-in-2015/5098453.article

 

[CoolK]

DH is the surprise hit of the holiday season...140-150 DOM when all is said and done

[RogueLeader]

Quote

They won't do that. It would be a horrible business decision. While studios are willing to use some tricks to get some milestones, they generally don't unless it's within a few million. Any more than that, and it's not worth the cost.

 

It would also be a VERY ignominious way of trying to break a milestone. I mean come on! That is shady to say THE LEAST! If it was a few million, then yeah, it would be fine.

 

However, something like $50 million would be WAY too much and would leave a huge indelible stain on the film's box office run, that would stigmatize it in film history.

[RogueLeader]

Just now, CoolK said:

DH is the surprise hit of the holiday season...140-150 DOM when all is said and done

 

Has anyone seen this thing? I was actually considering checking it out, despite the week review. I really like Farrel and Wahlberg in comedies.

[BadAtGender]

17 minutes ago, Biph Shmata said:

It's not the same thing. $1 billion domestically is a BFD, if this movie or that movie is 4th or 5th place is not. Plus Star Wars isn't dependent on the movie alone for it's cash flow,it's estimated to have made $3 billion in merch sales alone in 2015, $50 million is about how much more AOU cost to make than TFA. 

 

It might be a big deal, but it's not worth spending $50m. There aren't any intrinsic additional revenues that are generated by hitting the number. (Unlike, say, hitting $100m or $200m, as far as I know.) So the only thing that it does is bragging rights and the possibility that some people might be slightly more inclined to pay for something if it has that billion dollar number.

 

They won't spend that much, because it really isn't worth it. They only get about half the money from the box office. If they are at $950m box office, that's $475m revenue. Spending $50m, which they get back $25m on means that they only have $450m in revenue. And for a publicly traded company, they'd have to justify such an expense to shareholders. They can't do it.

 

If it gets to 990m, then I can see the possibility of going the final distance. They'll probably do something akin to Avatar, though. It petered out within a couple hundred thousand of $750m (also a big, , round number). So a week later they put it out again, slapped the "Special Edition" on it, and made another $11m or so.

 

Another option is to tie it in with double features (Captain America: Civil War, for instance.) Disney's done this before. Cinderella probably had two or three such team-ups to get it to $200m. (Tangled, as well.) (Of course it also famously let Gnomeo and Juliet end just $50k short of $100m.)

 

But those sort of things are only if it gets really close. Even $10m is a lot to ask. 

[RogueLeader]

2 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

950m looks locked, good enough for me.  1 billion depends on late holds.

 

That would be a real shame though.

 

I mean imagine if this thing got to 990 million and didn't make the final 1 billion. That would suck so hard.

 

IMO Disney would be REALLY smart to do a TFA "special Edition" type thing to help it get past that last hurdle. What do you guys think?

 

Imagine it: Add in some new scenes and tack on a trailer for the upcoming Star Wars film, Rogue One. It could work! It would be a HELL of a lot more legit than buying the tickets themselves needed to get to 1 billion! They could also initiate it with a strong, late marketing push.

 

Disney has been way too passive with marketing up till this point. Most of the marketing I've seen for this film has come from tie-in promotions. Advertising a film with a car commercial is NOT strong marketing.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, RogueLeader said:

 

That would be a real shame though.

 

I mean imagine if this thing got to 990 million and didn't make the final 1 billion. That would suck so hard.

 

IMO Disney would be REALLY smart to do a TFA "special Edition" type thing to help it get past that last hurdle. What do you guys think?

 

Imagine it: Add in some new scenes and tack on a trailer for the upcoming Star Wars film, Rogue One. It could work! It would be a HELL of a lot more legit than buying the tickets themselves needed to get to 1 billion! They could also initiate it with a strong, late marketing push.

 

Disney has been way too passive with marketing up till this point. Most of the marketing I've seen for this film has come from tie-in promotions. Advertising a film with a car commercial is NOT strong marketing.

Did this movie even need to have ANY marketing though? There really hadn't been a movie that sold itself this much since...well...ever.

[RogueLeader]

Just now, filmlover said:

Did this movie even need to have ANY marketing though? There really hadn't been a movie that sold itself this much since...well...ever.

 

In the first couple of weeks? No! Now? HELL YES!

 

The film has gotten to a point where it just can't rely on the name alone to sell it!

[JohnnY]

I'm on the 1b bandwagon now. I said I would only believe it's possible if SW managed to get to 750 until today.

It probably won't, but 735 ~ 745 is good enough to me

Edited January 3, 2016 by JohnnY

[BadAtGender]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Did this movie even need to have ANY marketing though? There really hadn't been a movie that sold itself this much since...well...ever.

 

TPM was the same, IIRC. The Star Wars brand is strong.

 

Rogue One will be a test, though.

[misterchief81]

12 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:

 

That would be a real shame though.

 

I mean imagine if this thing got to 990 million and didn't make the final 1 billion. That would suck so hard.

 

IMO Disney would be REALLY smart to do a TFA "special Edition" type thing to help it get past that last hurdle. What do you guys think?

 

Imagine it: Add in some new scenes and tack on a trailer for the upcoming Star Wars film, Rogue One. It could work! It would be a HELL of a lot more legit than buying the tickets themselves needed to get to 1 billion! They could also initiate it with a strong, late marketing push.

 

Disney has been way too passive with marketing up till this point. Most of the marketing I've seen for this film has come from tie-in promotions. Advertising a film with a car commercial is NOT strong marketing.

 

I don't even think it needs to be a special edition. Throw a trailer for Rogue One (and maybe other Disney/Marvel) properties later on in the release cycle. Make the trailers exclusive, don't put them online for a long time, just to get people in theatres to see it, even if they've already seen TFA before. 

[DAJK]

Star Wars has hit the equivalent of 1B at my theatre as of earlier today. Most attended movie in our history.

 

Also, even though I was in concession tonight, I was the only guy on shift, and this seven or eight year old had terrible aim in the men's washroom. Seriously. He must have let that thing fly like a mini firehouse. It was awful.

[Rthmessiah]

TFA 34.5,DH 11.6,H8 5.9,Sis 5.1,Alv 4.8,Joy 4.1,TBS 3.7,Conc 3.3,PB 2.6