88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS Discussion Topic (LIVE! Today's discussion begins on pg 33)

[narniadis]

The guilds might help once their awards start rolling in - but it's weird to go this far without somekind of Consensus winner either on the Critics or Guild side. Been awhile since I remember this happening (Maybe 2005 or 2006?) 

[RichWS]

I liked Big Short just fine, but seeing it winning the big one is almost unfathomable. It'll be Spotlight or Revenant. Pray to God Miller wins Director. 

 

 

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

If it's not The Big Short, then it may honestly be Mad Max. Ain't that a kick in the head. 

Just go with Spotlight or The Revenant. It's the smart choice. Those two are clearly ahead of everything else.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Just go with Spotlight or The Revenant. It's the smart choice. Those two are clearly ahead of everything else.

I would love to know why Spotlight keeps being brought up as clearly ahead though? You can essentially say Room or Brooklyn are all just as "clearly ahead" as Spotlight. All are small critically lauded flicks that have racked up a lot of nominations this awards season, but no real wins yet. I don't see why Spotlight would be strongly at the front, at least not yet. 

[filmlover]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I would love to know why Spotlight keeps being brought up as clearly ahead though? You can essentially say Room or Brooklyn are all just as "clearly ahead" as Spotlight. All are small critically lauded flicks that have racked up a lot of nominations this awards season, but no real wins yet. I don't see why Spotlight would be strongly at the front, at least not yet. 

Well, you keep saying The Big Short is ahead of everything else, when there's nothing that suggests it is (unless it wins at SAG, but that's likely to go to Spotlight instead). Like, if you're going to use "it's up the Academy's ally" as your argument, then you might as well say Bridge of Spies is the other frontrunner.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Well, you keep saying The Big Short is ahead of everything else, when there's nothing that suggests it is (unless it wins at SAG, but that's likely to go to Spotlight instead). Like, if you're going to use "it's up the Academy's ally" as your argument, then you might as well say Bridge of Spies is the other frontrunner.

That's my point though. There is no clear frontrunner this year yet, so I am basically going with what I think the Academy will go for. Does that make it the frontrunner in reality? No, but I think it's basically as valid as what someone else's instincts are saying will win BP at this point. One thing about TBS and Spotlight is they are the only BP ones with a screenplay, acting, editing, and director nom. So I suppose both are good choices for a frontrunner at this point. The reason I'd still give TBS the edge would be because I don't think McCarthy has any chance to win director and McKay's direction definitely stood out and could gather a lot of fans. TBS also has  a better shot at winning editing than Spotlight imo. I feel like if Spotlight wins BP, screenplay could be its only other win which would be very unusual. 

Edited January 16, 2016 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's my point though. There is no clear frontrunner this year yet, so I am basically going with what I think the Academy will go for. Does that make it the frontrunner in reality? No, but I think it's basically as valid as what someone else's instincts are saying will win BP at this point. One thing about TBS and Spotlight is they are the only BP ones with a screenplay, acting, editing, and director nom. So I suppose both are good choices for a frontrunner at this point. The reason I'd still give TBS the edge would be because I don't think McCarthy has any chance to win director and McKay's direction definitely stood out and could gather a lot of fans. TBS also has  a better shot at winning editing than Spotlight imo. I feel like if Spotlight wins BP, screenplay could be its only other win which would be very unusual. 

Rachel McAdams could pull a surprise in Supporting. She's the only nominee in that category whose film is up for Best Picture.

 

The Big Short is more likely to be The Wolf of Wall Street 2.0 and win nothing than win Best Picture (or Best Director, for that matter).

Edited January 16, 2016 by filmlover

[MovieMan89]

Just now, filmlover said:

Rachel McAdams could pull a surprise in Supporting. She's the only nominee in that category whose film is up for Best Picture.

Possible I guess, given Mara and Vikander are both such strong front-runners in that category we could get one of those vote splits leading to a dark horse contender win. Though Winslet would still probably be more likely. 

[filmlover]

Supporting Actress is so open lol, anyone would be a deserving winner (haven't seen Carol). Well, except for Vikander (who is good but that movie doesn't even deserve to be an Oscar-nominated film, let alone a winning one).

[Impact]

Finally checked-my best was adapted screenplay as I got all 5 right. (Almost got a few other ones, actor and actress were 2 I would of had all 5 right if I didn't change Cranston to Carell and Lawrence to Blunt towards the end)
Song was my worse-only got Spectre and Youth.

[CoolioD1]

i got 100% on actress, supporting actress, sound editing, cinematography, make-up.

[Impact]

Well Coolio, unless if someone else scores better so far you have the best score (again).

[MovieMan89]

Tele must be overjoyed that JW failed to land even a visual nom. 

[Impact]

Currently doing the Oscar game-so far supporting actor is the toughest, I could see any of the 5 winning. (Am currently saying Stallone though)

[Travod]

31 minutes ago, Impact said:

Currently doing the Oscar game-so far supporting actor is the toughest, I could see any of the 5 winning. (Am currently saying Stallone though)

 

At this point it looks like Stallone is safe for the win.

[Impact]

Yeah I do agree, but one thing is that its the only nomination for Creed and the only nominee in that cat that is not nominated for picture as well.

S. actress I have Leigh winning, though I can see Rooney or McAdams winning.

Actress, I have Larson, though part of me wouldn't be surprise if Ronan wins.

Actor, I have DiCaprio in last lol, okay really, he is in first.

I have Revenant and Hateful 8 with 3 wins each.
Mad Max, Martian and Spotlight I have with 2 wins each meanwhile.

Big Short, Cinderella, Creed, Inside Out, Room, Son of Saul, Spectre and Star Wars with one win each.

[filmlover]

I don't see Leigh winning at all. She's really in the background of the movie for most of it until the end. I could see any of the others winning though (just don't want to see Vikander winning for that movie lol). I think I'll be seeing Carol next weekend, it's the last major nominee (that isn't up for Picture) I have yet to see.

Edited January 18, 2016 by filmlover

[CoolioD1]

lol I would've thought that one was between vikander and winslet.

[DeeCee]

Fish not happy.

 

 

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

The supporting actress race so far feels like in 2007 where three or four different people won at the major awards. Really curious about how the BAFTA and SAG go. I wish Leigh won but her chances don't look too good.