88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS Discussion Topic (LIVE! Today's discussion begins on pg 33)

[Filmovie]

42 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

Ideally with Miller getting the DGA and then BD, BP like Scorsese. 

 

Wait, you mean Mad Max Fury Road as BP?

[Joel M]

^

yep. It's more than a longshot but if Miller gets the DGA and the guilds are split between three movies, it has a theoretical shot.

 

I know the experts have Revenant as the DGA spoiler and not Max but I still think they're underestimating how much of a factor is the Inarritu sweep just a year ago. The most probable outcome is McKay winning the DGA and riding to the buisness as usual BP/BD win that happens almost every year. But if there's a spoiler I think it's Miller and not Inarritu.

[Filmovie]

41 minutes ago, Joel M said:

^

yep. It's more than a longshot but if Miller gets the DGA and the guilds are split between three movies, it has a theoretical shot.

 

I know the experts have Revenant as the DGA spoiler and not Max but I still think they're underestimating how much of a factor is the Inarritu sweep just a year ago. The most probable outcome is McKay winning the DGA and riding to the buisness as usual BP/BD win that happens almost every year. But if there's a spoiler I think it's Miller and not Inarritu.

 

Well, I am happier with Fury Road than with TBS, that's sure. Miller will win DGA, IMHO, and is frontrunner at the Oscar for BD but BP...well, it looks unlikely...it has no script nomination!

 

BD/BP split happens more oft than what we think, this year will happen again...

 

Well, McCkay for BD is just fucking ridicolous: he shouldn't even be nominated

Edited February 1, 2016 by Filmovie

[Impact]

I might switch McCarthy with McKay on the Oscar game.

Revenant has the most wins so far on the game for me with 4, Spotlight, Mad Max and The Martian all have 2 each.

[RichWS]

I enjoyed it enough, but Big Short is not a Picture winner to me. Especially compared to the films it's up against. 

 

Unless McKay wins the DGA, I'm sticking with Spotlight to take Picture.

Edited February 2, 2016 by RichWS

[Dingdong123]

Alejandro Inarritu won at the DGA. Yes at The Revenant being the frontrunner at the aoscars afterall!

[Filmovie]

25 minutes ago, Dingdong123 said:

Alejandro Inarritu won at the DGA. Yes at The Revenant being the frontrunner at the aoscars afterall!

 

A movie will never win BP without a Best Screenplay nomination

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, Dingdong123 said:

Alejandro Inarritu won at the DGA. Yes at The Revenant being the frontrunner at the aoscars afterall!

There is no frontrunner this year. PGA went with The Big Short, SAG went with Spotlight, DGA went with The Revenant. Just watch BAFTA continue the crazy and go with Carol, which has no shot because it isn't even nominated. It's been a wild season and easily the most unpredictable in forever.

[ShouldIBeHere]

My pick from this years's nominees (not speaking about probablity, just my picks):

 

Best Picture: Mad Max or The Martian

Best Director: George Miller

Actor: DiCaprio

Actress: Blanchett

Supporting Actor: Hardy

Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Martian

Best original Screenplay: Inside Out

Best Camera: The Revenant

Best Production Design: Mad Max

Costumes: Mad Max

Score: Morricone

Song: couldn't care less for all 5 of them.

Make-Up/Hair: Carol

Editing: Mad Max

Sound: Star Wars

Sound Editing: Star Wars

Visual Effects: Mad Max

Animation: Inside Out

 

 

[Impact]

Even though I have it ranked at number 8, technically given history-Room is the 4th most likely to win. Mad Max (no acting+no screenplay), The Martian (no editing+no directing) and Spies (see Martian) all have no chance given there combos-something that was brought up for Avatar that it wouldn't win since it had no acting+no screenplay-Grand Hotel was the last film to do that (AKA the only film to win BP without a nomination in any other category. With that said-I be less surprised by Mad Max, Martian or even Spies winning then Room.  (Heck only Brooklyn I be more shocked by!)

 

On another note-there are only 3 period nominations this year!

[Jake Gittes]

Having now seen Bridge, Spotlight and The Big Short I'm glad they nominated the three good-to-great examples of based-on-real-events Important Dramas, and not dreck like The Danish Girl or Trumbo. 

[RichWS]

I've been holding strong with my Spotlight prediction, but Revenant taking Picture and Director at the BAFTA's is hard to overlook.

[stripe]

It's still a 3way race for BP. Hard to see what will happen.

 

Revenant will have the support of tech voters. Spotlight and Big Short will fight for the huge actors branch of the Academy.

 

Right now, Revenant is my prediction for BP with Big Short in a close second place.

 

 

[stripe]

I have seen 6/8 BP nominees

 

I would rank them like this.

 

Brooklyn A

Mad Max A

The Martian A-

Spotlight A-

Revenant B+

Bridge of Spies B+

 

Extremely solid year, IMHO. I also have high expectations for Room, but it doesn't open in Spain until March 

 

If only IO was among the nominees...

[MinaTakla]

I did a rundown of the big 5 industry awards (PGA, DGA, GG, BAFTA and SAG) for the last 4 years to try to assess this year's film chances. Interesting that all the BP winners last years needed at least 3 wins of the big 5:

GG: Argo, 12YAS, Boyhood, Revenant 
BAFTA: Argo, 12 YAS, Boyhood, Revenant
PGA: Argo, Gravity/12Yas, Birdman, Big Short
DGA: Argo, Gravity, Birdman, Revenant
SAG: Argo, Hustle, Birdman, Spotlight
Totals:
Argo - 5/5 - won
Gravity - 2/5 - lost
12 YAS - 3/5 - won
Birdman - 3/5 - won
Big Short 1/5 - ??
Revenant 3/5 - ??
Spotlight 1/5 - ??
Hustle - 1/5 - lost
Interesting to look at these. Not sure if they mean anything or not. But interesting to the look at the 5-piece combo.

[Impact]

Well I was hoping for the first time since 1997 all 4 acting winners be American, but it looks like it might not happen now.

[CoolioD1]

i think pretty much all the important awards have come to pass so these would be my probably final predictions

 

picture: revenant

director: inarritu

actor: leo

actress: brie

supp. actor: sly

supp. actress: vikander

o. screenplay: spotlight

a. screenplay: the big short

animated: inside out

documentary: amy

foreign: son of saul

song: lady gaga one

score: h8ful

production design: bridge of spies 

costumes: mad max

cinematography: revenant

editing: mad max

make-up: mad max

sound: revenant

sound editing: mad max

visual effects: star wars

[RichWS]

On 2/15/2016 at 6:22 AM, stripe said:

It's still a 3way race for BP. Hard to see what will happen.

 

Despite the PGA, I've had a hard time buying Big Short as a legit possible winner. Revenant has all the heat right now going into voting.  

 

This is the first time since 2008 (the final five-nominee year) that I saw all nominees in theaters. My personal rankings:

 

1. Room

2. Mad Max

3. Spotlight

4. Bridge of Spies

5. Brooklyn

6. The Big Short

7. The Martian

8. The Revenant

[filmlover]

The PGA statistic needs to be thrown out the window this year because The Big Short's win there was probably more of an aberration (the movie probably spoke loudest to them since it's primarily about money, which is within that guild's line of work, plus I mentioned this in the other thread but it apparently won by just 3 votes, so it pretty much tied with at least one other movie). After missing at all of SAG, DGA, and BAFTA, it's difficult to imagine where the momentum would come from.

 

7 minutes ago, RichWS said:

This is the first time since 2008 (the final five-nominee year) that I saw all nominees in theaters. My personal rankings:

This is the first year in God knows how long where I have seen every single movie that is up for more than one nomination before the ceremony. That's definitely been a while.

[Jake Gittes]

If The Big Short wins Editing early in the ceremony it's got a fighting chance at BP. If not, it'll almost definitely lose, though it'd be fun and in spirit of the season if it still ended up winning by a couple of votes or something.