THE HITMAN'S BODYGUARD | 08.18.17 | trailer 1 on page 1

[Mike Branson]

Maybe Lionsgate is releasing it in mid-August because they know it's not good enough to compete with the heavy summer rotation.

[Nova]

So Mike Branson is gonna troll The Hitman's Bodyguard of all films? 

 

Tragic. 

[Mike Branson]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

So Mike Branson is gonna troll The Hitman's Bodyguard of all films? 

 

Tragic. 

So, disagreeing with you means I'm trolling. Really?

[Mike Branson]

2 hours ago, MattW said:

Not expecting much, 20 OW and 50-60 dom.  

I think $25-30 mil ow

$75-$100 dom

[Jay Beezy]

1 hour ago, Mike Branson said:

Maybe Lionsgate is releasing it in mid-August because they know it's not good enough to compete with the heavy summer rotation.

 

Not mega blockbuster looking enough.

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Mike Branson said:

So, disagreeing with you means I'm trolling. Really?

You're literally repeating the same thing over and over again without providing any proof to your claims. If you follow the box office (which im sure you do since you're on this forum) then you'd know release date now a days isn't an indicator of quality of film. We've had several films being released in the peak of summer and they've flopped and were considered awful. We've also had films being released in months that are supposed to be considered dumping grounds be really well received. 

 

The point is the month doesn't really indicate quality anymore which is what you keep saying about this film. "It's being released in August so therefore Lionsgate must have zero faith in it and it must suck." That's not the way it works anymore. Maybe 5 years ago it did but the film industry has changed a lot since then. 

[ClaudeManhattan]

2 hours ago, Mike Branson said:

I think $25-30 mil ow

$75-$100 dom

$39 million opening weekend 

$120 million domestic 

[Barnack]

Movie director filmography:

Red hill: 8.65k OW, 21k domestic

Expendables 3: 15.8m OW, 39.3m domestic, 35metascore

 

Sam Jackson 10 previous non franchise movie opening weekend:

Cell : Direct to video

Hateful Eight: 15.7m

Chi-raq: 1.2m

Big game: 0.017m (pretty much direct to video)

Barely lethal: 0.0017m pretty much direct to video

Kingsman: 36m 

Django: 30m

The samaritan: 0.0017m

Meeting Evil: 0.000181m

The other guy (more of a cameo): 35m

Mother and child: 0.0043m

Average: around 10m

 

Ryan reynold 10 previous non franchise movie opening weekend:

Life: 12m 

Criminal: 5.7m

Mississippi Grind: 0.012m

Self/less: 5.4m

Woman in gold: 2m

The captive: 0.4m

RIPD: 12.6m

Safe house: 40m* (Denzel)

Fireflies in the garden: 0.036m

The change-up: 13.5m

Average: around 9m

 

Liongates biggest openning weekend outside their franchise/sequel;

The first expendables: 34m

Now you see me: 29.3m

 

2017 best live action non IP/sequel OW:

Dunkirk: 50m (Nolan is almost a franchise)

Split: 40m

Get out: 33m

Girl Trip: 31m

Baby driver: 20,5

100% of every other release of 2017 were below 20m, that is a really hard number to achieve.

 

 

I'm not sure I see why that movie would have one of the best opening weekend ever in Ryan Reynolds career, in recent Sam Jackson career, that director career and Liongates for one of the best opening weekend of the year (just below Split and Dunkirk). 39m would be performing like The heat (that had 2 of the big draw in a Paul Feig movie, in a big studio release)

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2017 by Barnack

[Jonwo]

$25-35m OW would be solid for an R rated action comedy, the low end seems more likely but it wouldn't surprise me if it managed the top end.

[Nova]

I'm gonna have to agree with Barnack here. Nothing has really indicated a big opening for this movie.

 

I think if this opens around $20M, it'll be good for it. 

 

Although i say that now and I have no idea what the budget is lol 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I'm gonna have to agree with Barnack here. Nothing has really indicated a big opening for this movie.

 

I think if this opens around $20M, it'll be good for it. 

 

Although i say that now and I have no idea what the budget is lol 

I imagine it's $50-60m which I imagine Lionsgate has already recouped as they sold the OS rights to their usual distributor.

[filmlover]

It feels like the marketing for this peaked with the first trailer (the one that was scored to "I Will Always Love You"). That said, I already began seeing a ton of TV spots last week so I think it could make a run for a decent $20-25M opening followed by good legs afterwards considering how deadly the August 25 and following Labor Day weekend frames look.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

It feels like the marketing for this peaked with the first trailer (the one that was scored to "I Will Always Love You"). That said, I already began seeing a ton of TV spots last week so I think it could make a run for a decent $20-25M opening followed by good legs afterwards considering how deadly the August 25 and following Labor Day weekend frames look.

I imagine it'll easily be number 1 for three weeks due to the lack of competition

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It feels like the marketing for this peaked with the first trailer (the one that was scored to "I Will Always Love You"). That said, I already began seeing a ton of TV spots last week so I think it could make a run for a decent $20-25M opening followed by good legs afterwards considering how deadly the August 25 and following Labor Day weekend frames look.

I agree with this assessment 

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I imagine it's $50-60m which I imagine Lionsgate has already recouped as they sold the OS rights to their usual distributor.

And yea I think I read it was a mid-budget action film like London Has Fallen when it first got green lit. I'm just not sure if the budget stayed in that range lol 

[Barnack]

Comparable:

 

Ride Along: 41m

The Heat: 39m

21 jump street: 36m

Central Intelligence: 35m

Ride Along 2: 35m

2 guns: 27m

Baywatch: 18m

Cop Out:18m

Let's be cops: 17.8m

RIPD: 12.7m

Nice Guys: 11m

Chips: 7.7m

 

Average: 25m

I would go for something close to Atomic blonde and Baby Driver, around 18 to 22m, that would be a really nice success for an Indie released by Lionsgate.

 

Logan Lucky is also an action/comedy going wide the exact same day and it is a big name director with a 100% on rotten tomatoes score right now, could be an harsh competition.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Barnack

[Mike Branson]

With virtually zero competition other than Logan Lucky with an experimental distribution, I can this movie staying at number one until September.

[Jay Beezy]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It feels like the marketing for this peaked with the first trailer (the one that was scored to "I Will Always Love You"). That said, I already began seeing a ton of TV spots last week so I think it could make a run for a decent $20-25M opening followed by good legs afterwards considering how deadly the August 25 and following Labor Day weekend frames look.

 

Yeah. Between it being the most Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson banter-heavy and the use of that song, the first redband trailer was easily the best piece of marketing that was put out for this. Which for me wasn't a bad thing since it very much sold me on seeing it for those reasons.

 

The way all subsequent trailers had been cut together haven't made the movie look as fun, if only because they've been lacking in banter moments which is what I'm here for.

 

What matters now is when the embargo lifts.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[Mike Branson]

What's the most effected tv spots or trailer? Does anybody know?

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Yeah. Between it being the most Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson banter-heavy and the use of that song, the first redband trailer was easily the best piece of marketing that was put out for this. Which for me wasn't a bad thing since it very much sold me on seeing it for those reasons.

 

The way all subsequent trailers had been cut together haven't made the movie look as fun, if only because they've been lacking in banter moments which is what I'm here for.

 

What matters now is when the embargo lifts.

I quite like the second trailer with the Italian drinking song music but I agree it wasn't as strong as the first.

[Jay Beezy]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I quite like the second trailer with the Italian drinking song music but I agree it wasn't as strong as the first.

You mean when Sam Jackson is singing along with the nuns to Ryan Reynolds' displeasure? Yeah, that was great.