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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

By Olive, in China At The Box Office

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UserHN Box Office Gold

UserHN

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, firedeep said:

Disney is the starter.... They added the word "游侠" into the Chinese title.

 

I think "Ranger" is a good and appropriate translation of "游侠". Can't think of a better replacement.

 

“游侠” is mostly a postive word which usually is connected with such legend heroes as Jing Ke, Robin Hood and Zoro. It fits Han Solo well IMO.

Disney should have renamed it Coco Solo or Zootopia Solo or Avengers: Solo. Guaranteed $100M+. :P

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, MonstersandRoy said:

How important are Maoyan scores to box office in China? Lets say Solo started very bad like it sounds like it is going to, but got 8.5 Maoyan rating, would that help drastically?

8.5, not so much.

 

Anything between 8.0-8.9 is normal-good WOM, but is very unlikely to breakout performance.

 

9.0-9.3 is very good WOM and can give movies a nice boost, but nothing catastrophic.

 

9.4+ is where you get phenomenal WOM that leads to weekend multipliers of 10x+

 

Anything less than 8.0 can severely hurt the film as well.

 

So is Solo gets 7.5-8.5, it'll perform as expected, 8.6-9.0 it may get a slight boost (like 2.1x OW or so), 9.1+ and it may get a large boost from such a small OW. However, this is star wars, so it may just behave differently to everything we know

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nguyenkhoi282 Sleeper Hit

nguyenkhoi282

Posted
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53 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

8.5, not so much.

 

Anything between 8.0-8.9 is normal-good WOM, but is very unlikely to breakout performance.

 

9.0-9.3 is very good WOM and can give movies a nice boost, but nothing catastrophic.

 

9.4+ is where you get phenomenal WOM that leads to weekend multipliers of 10x+

 

Anything less than 8.0 can severely hurt the film as well.

 

So is Solo gets 7.5-8.5, it'll perform as expected, 8.6-9.0 it may get a slight boost (like 2.1x OW or so), 9.1+ and it may get a large boost from such a small OW. However, this is star wars, so it may just behave differently to everything we know

Lol 9.1+ for Solo. Only if Chinese are all mind fucked before the release date.

I think it'll be even lower than TLJ, maybe 7 or so.

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bangbingchan Sleeper Hit

bangbingchan

Posted
Posted
On 2018/5/20 at 5:48 PM, Proxima Olive said:

Big part of Solo PS are just locked showtimes(锁场).Not real PS.

Yep.The theater nearby have a midnight IMAX shows for Solo.Seats are locked 3 rows infront.Not even one ticket is sold.I doubt they will cancel the show tomorrow.

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted
On 5/22/2018 at 9:51 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Ranger Solo (2 days out)

 

Midnights - 0.32m yuan

OD - 1.64m (34392 screens)

Sat - 0.81

Sun - 0.48

 

Mr. Solo added about 11k screens today for a still very low screen count of about 35k. 

 

Solo also jumped only 52.2% which is lower than its jump yesterday which is the opposiy of what should have happened. 

 

Doubling PS and typical multi will get Solo to a 12m usd OW and then TLJ legs will get it to about 18m usd total. But its not gonna have typical multies and its probably not gonna double tomorrow so the numbers will be lower definitely

 

Ranger Solo (1 day out)

 

Midnights - 0.37m yuan

OD - 2.66m (51441 screens)

Sat - 1.27m

Sun - 0.68m

 

Only 62% rise today for Solo and about 17k screens added. Its running behind even Blade Runner now 😂

 

If it doubles tomorrow and then has typical OW multies then it gets to 10m OW. TLJ legs then will get it to 15m total. 

 

But neither TLJ nor BR had typical OW multipliers and neither will this I think. Sub 10m OW is likely now. 

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Ranger Solo (1 day out)

 

Midnights - 0.37m yuan

OD - 2.66m (51441 screens)

Sat - 1.27m

Sun - 0.68m

 

Only 62% rise today for Solo and about 17k screens added. Its running behind even Blade Runner now 😂

 

If it doubles tomorrow and then has typical OW multies then it gets to 10m OW. TLJ legs then will get it to 15m total. 

 

But neither TLJ nor BR had typical OW multipliers and neither will this I think. Sub 10m OW is likely now. 

 

This is just...wow. That so embarrassing i dont even know if its funny anymore.

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted (edited)

At around the same point in time, Solo is running 20% behind BR2049 in PS depite more shows and 68% behind SW8. 

 

For reference BR2049 ended up with a 7.8m OW with current ER. 

 

Solo is only up about 56% at 7:30 and is unlikely to double today. 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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pepsa Blockbuster

pepsa

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

At around the same point in time, Solo is running 20% behind BR2049 in PS depite more shows and 68% behind SW8. 

 

For reference BR2049 ended up with a 7.8m OW with current ER. 

 

Solo is only up about 56% at 7:30 and is unlikely to double today. 

Below $8m weekend inc?

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Below $8m weekend inc?

Its possible. It is running behind BR2049 in PS but has way more screens than that so direct comparision is a bit iffy. 

 

But at this point I would rather wait for the ratings. If by some miracle they are great then things may turn around for Solo. But looking at reviews on Douban and based on what we have heard from east Asian members here I doubt the ratings and Wom will be good. So yeah 8m OW looks possible

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Ranger Solo (1 day out)

 

Midnights - 0.37m yuan

OD - 2.66m (51441 screens)

Sat - 1.27m

Sun - 0.68m

 

Only 62% rise today for Solo and about 17k screens added. Its running behind even Blade Runner now 😂

 

If it doubles tomorrow and then has typical OW multies then it gets to 10m OW. TLJ legs then will get it to 15m total. 

 

But neither TLJ nor BR had typical OW multipliers and neither will this I think. Sub 10m OW is likely now. 

 

Ranger Solo (Midnight)

 

Midnights - 0.75m Yuan

OD - 4.86m (77180 screens)

Sat - 2.32m

Sun - 1.24m

 

Mr. solo couldnt even double on the last day increasing about 82.7% today. In terms of screens it added about 25k screems today. 

 

Its tally of 4.86m at end of Thursday is less than what BR2049 had mid thursday and BR2049 had 27k screens less! BR 

2049 opened to 50m ($7.85m usd) OW with a 7.2 Maoyan rating. 

 

Typical OW multipliers will lead Solo to 9.25m usd OW and the TLJ legs will get it to about 14m usd total. 

 

Solo’s best bet is to have a good rating on Maoyan which might lead to good WoM and better multipliers. We should find out the ratings in a few hours. 

 

However based on reviews at Douban, word from our members here in this forums and its performance in many countries so far, especially in South Korea leads me to believe that this will not perform well. So Sub 8 million OW is likely at this point and if ratings are not good or decent then a total of sub 15 million is likely

 

For comparision if it falls on OD from TLJ a similar % that it fell in SK then its OD will be  11m Yuan (1.72m USD) and OW will be 26m yuan (4m USD). I doubt it’ll fall that much but it happened in SK maybe it could happen in China too

Edited by ZeeSoh
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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

LOL Maoyan predicts a 6x multiple

3 minutes ago, pepsa said:

From OW? And so, why would they do that?

OD- presales

 

Edited by Proxima Olive
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jiangsen Sleeper Hit

jiangsen

Posted
Posted
On 5/22/2018 at 2:22 PM, ZeeSoh said:

I dont know where it started from but google translates the chinese title into Ranger Solo. Even IMDB gives the same title. 

 

What should the title be then according to you?

Oh yeah sorry about that and thanks for catching it. I copy paste from the my previous day post and then change the date accordingly but forgot to do so today

Not to belabor my point (but actually to belabor my point), Variety called it "Knight-Errant" Solo way before "Ranger" was coined by @Gavin Feng

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/han-solo-day-and-date-china-theatrical-release-1202798624/

 

And Patrick Frater is one of the few guys who reports on CBO in English and actually knows Chinese...

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