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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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Pixar (aside from Coco) has never done well in China, so it’s not a surprise.

 

(And Coco did exceptionally well because its specific plot/theme tie into cultural belief that Chinese audience can highly identify with)

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11 hours ago, John Marston said:

wow that sounds bad for Incredibles 2.  Thought it would do 70-80m like Big Hero 6 thanks to the superhero theme

Coco's OD was $2m. At first glance it was sure to do $9m OW and $18m total. It got a 9.6 rating and blew up to an $18m OW, $180m total

If the theme resinates then it will take off.  

 

FD opened this weekend 2 years ago. 

$4m OD $18m OW $36m Total. 8.5 rating. Pixar isnt a big thing, but anything can happen

11 hours ago, salvador-232 said:

Maybe the huge opening in the US will induce some hype and curiosity a la Black Panther? Let's hope... If not, well, Pixar really is cursed in China, isn't it? 

Possibly. Lets see if PS jumps on tues and wed with news of $180m OW

11 hours ago, John Marston said:

wow that sounds bad for Incredibles 2.  Thought it would do 70-80m like Big Hero 6 thanks to the superhero theme

BH6 OD was $6m on a Saturday. It would have been $2-2.5m if it was a Friday open like Coco and I2s expected open. It got a 9.5 rating and blew up a bit.

Apparently, we need a 9.5 rating to see some fireworks

Zoo OD was $3.5m. 9.5 rating.

$2-4m OD is standard 

 

A 9 rating for an SH = 9.4 for a toon.

A 9 for I2 wont blow it up much

Edited by POTUS
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Pre-sale of Dying to Survive(我不是药神), Hidden Man(邪不压正), Asura(阿修罗), Detective Dee: The Four Heavenly Kings(狄仁杰之四大天王) already started yesterday.

 

 

Dying to Survive

starred by Zheng Xu, who also directed and showed in the Lost in Thailand/Hong Kong. Some journalists saw the film and reviewed it’s a chinese version of Dallas Buyers Club.

 

Hidden Man

directed and starred by Wen Jiang. The last two works from Jiang made ¥660M and ¥514M in 2010 & 2014.

 

Asura

crew and production company claimed they spent ¥750M on it before P&A. The fantasy film is aim to make ¥3,000M according to distributors.(yes, billion)

 

Detective Dee: The Four Heavenly Kings

directed by Hark Tsui. a sequel to Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon(2013), which made ¥601M in 2013.

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On Monday, June 18, 2018 2:12:55 PM at 2:12 PM, POTUS said:

Coco's OD was $2m. At first glance it was sure to do $9m OW and $18m total. It got a 9.6 rating and blew up to an $18m OW, $180m total

If the theme resinates then it will take off.  

 

FD opened this weekend 2 years ago. 

$4m OD $18m OW $36m Total. 8.5 rating. Pixar isnt a big thing, but anything can happen

Possibly. Lets see if PS jumps on tues and wed with news of $180m OW

BH6 OD was $6m on a Saturday. It would have been $2-2.5m if it was a Friday open like Coco and I2s expected open. It got a 9.5 rating and blew up a bit.

Apparently, we need a 9.5 rating to see some fireworks

Zoo OD was $3.5m. 9.5 rating.

$2-4m OD is standard 

 

A 9 rating for an SH = 9.4 for a toon.

A 9 for I2 wont blow it up much

Only 9.4+ is helpeful for toon. Below 9.3 is useless.

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Pre-sale of Dying to Survive(我不是药神), Hidden Man(邪不压正), Asura(阿修罗), Detective Dee: The Four Heavenly Kings(狄仁杰之四大天王) already started yesterday.

 

 

Dying to Survive

starred by Zheng Xu, who also directed and showed in the Lost in Thailand/Hong Kong. Some journalists saw the film and reviewed it’s a chinese version of Dallas Buyers Club.

 

Hidden Man

directed and starred by Wen Jiang. The last two works from Jiang made ¥660M and ¥514M in 2010 & 2014.

 

Asura

crew and production company claimed they spent ¥750M on it before P&A. The fantasy film is aim to make ¥3,000M according to distributors.(yes, billion)

 

Detective Dee: The Four Heavenly Kings

directed by Hark Tsui. a sequel to Young Detective Dee: Rise of the Sea Dragon(2013), which made ¥601M in 2013.

Just ignore this Asura :hahaha:

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15 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Asura

crew and production company claimed they spent ¥750M on it before P&A. The fantasy film is aim to make ¥3,000M according to distributors.(yes, billion)

 

That would be #5 all time, wow:hahaha:

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On ‎6‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 5:18 AM, Olive said:

Incredibles 2 Chinese title 超人总动员(Supermen Mobilization)

Sounds too much like a DC movie

They couldn't go for something similar to Superhero Family? Supermen Mobilization is atrocious :lol:

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10 hours ago, POTUS said:

I2 increased good today. 

Should hit 6m tomorrow and do 24m OD.

Maybe 100m/$15m OW

Only 4x multi from OD? I thought animated movies with good WOM (which I think it will have) get 5x multi... or better.

 

25M

55M

50M

 

130M / $20M

 

I know it's a little optimistic, but it can happen.

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2 hours ago, Fake said:

Only 4x multi from OD? I thought animated movies with good WOM (which I think it will have) get 5x multi... or better.

 

25M

55M

50M

 

130M / $20M

 

I know it's a little optimistic, but it can happen.

Could be 5x PS.  4x is closer to the norm.

FD bumped 110% on Saturday with mixed WoM.  I2 will lose a few percent of it shows on Saturday to a preview and may bounce smaller unless it has good WoM.  200% bump possible if it has great WoM.

 

My 100m est is conservative with much room for improvement

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19 minutes ago, a2k said:

how likley is something like this for i2 with 7ps :

 

35 fri

75 sat (+114%)

75 sun

 = 185 ow ($28.5)

3x legs for $85 total

 

or is this just too fantastical?

With decent WoM sat jump might be a little lower because of the loss of showtimes like Potus said. Friday is possible, it's at 6.26m PS atm, so 7m is a done deal I think. Let's say it has 7.5m (maybe a bit high) that would mean 4.67 x PS. Doesn't seem unreasonable. With decent WoM a 100% sup on sat and a little drop on sunday. 

If it has great WoM this could go much higher ofc. 

Edited by pepsa
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6 hours ago, a2k said:

how likley is something like this for i2 with 7ps :

 

35 fri

75 sat (+114%)

75 sun

 = 185 ow ($28.5)

3x legs for $85 total

 

or is this just too fantastical?

3x OW will be tough unless it has a high PTA.  Summer season starting next weekend for local films with two large openers. It will lose 75% of shows on Friday but will regain some shows if it has a high density

 

 

I2 PS heading to 7.5m.  115% gain.  Maybe there is a little buzz with the large OW in domestic.  Its going to open bigger than the average toon.  $25m+ likely

 

MN is just 300k, not sure if we'll get a Maoyan rating tonight

Edited by POTUS
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