Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[TigerPaw]

Not sure why everyone here is rooting for Wandering Earth?

Is it because some users here only share with you trailer for that movie? Hence the hype?

 

I myself am more hyped for Stephen Chow/Wang Bao Qiang's New King of Comedy, and hope it will do better than Chow's Mermaid. Chow and Wang are extremely talented comedians.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Not sure why everyone here is rooting for Wandering Earth?

Is it because some users here only share with you trailer for that movie? Hence the hype?

 

I myself am more hyped for Stephen Chow/Wang Bao Qiang's New King of Comedy, and hope it will do better than Chow's Mermaid. Chow and Wang are extremely talented comedians.

comedies in general don't do well abroad, they are very local including HLWD

Sci fi has a chance of doing well elsewhere if it breaks out locally

[fmpro]

2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Not sure why everyone here is rooting for Wandering Earth?

Is it because some users here only share with you trailer for that movie? Hence the hype?

 

I myself am more hyped for Stephen Chow/Wang Bao Qiang's New King of Comedy, and hope it will do better than Chow's Mermaid. Chow and Wang are extremely talented comedians.

What @POTUS said

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, POTUS said:

 

PS picking up speed. Should get to 15m but I agree the weekend is too high

The common PSm 3.5 lately, though BBee was 4.  The Fri multi should be less than 3.3x since its a school out Friday.

Sticking with my projection  below as high end.  $23-25m

 

I disagreed that it would hit 15 mill by midnight(23.59)

[a2k]

Using $24 ow DP2 would need nearly 1.9x multi to cross $45 in a 10-day run. $40 seems like a good target.

[POTUS 2020]

11 hours ago, fmpro said:

I disagree. PS wont reach 15 mill IMO. 12-14 mill area is more likely IMO

 

OD and Weekend seems a bit high also. But lets see

 

41 minutes ago, fmpro said:

I disagreed that it would hit 15 mill by midnight(23.59)

nothing mentioned about MN. you're a veteran, you know we use the number when it stops rolling in at 2 or 3am .😎

 

PS will stop at 14.7m at 3am.  Closenuf. 

OD  51m 

OW 165m/$24.26m

 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

 

nothing mentioned about MN. you're a veteran, you know we use the number when it stops rolling in at 2 or 3am .😎

 

PS will stop at 14.7m at 3am.  Closenuf. 

OD  51m 

OW 165m/$24.26m

 

I know i know. But Charlie Jatinder said midnight and i knew 100% increase would not happen. 

 

Im actully impressed it did 14,7 because screen count dropped the last few days from 50ish% to 40% on OD

50-55 mill OD 

[POTUS 2020]

17 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It will have better multiple for two reasons.

1. The late pick up momentum will continue on opening day as well 

2. It's delayed release so initial rush in pre release will be missing.

 

 

I think the opposite will happen. People that really want to see it on the big screen will do so this weekend, there wont be a WoM boost because either people will have already seen it and not have an urge to spend 35Y or others will just go online if they haven't seen it. PS for Saturday are looking low. It may not bump

Edited January 25, 2019 by POTUS

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

I think the opposite will happen. People that really want to see it on the big screen will do so this weekend, there wont be a WoM boost because either people will have already seen it and not have an urge to spend 35Y or others will just go online if they haven't seen it. PS for Saturday are looking low. It may not bump

Even WOM is bad so yeah, may drop tommorow.

[Stewart]

On 2/8/2018 at 5:02 PM, feasby007 said:

 

MH2 is at 135m which is +11% over yesterday.

DC is at 80.8m which is +14% over yesterday. 

 

I think DC is increasing better because there's simply more seats available. They're at 92,419 and 61,450 shows total, so there's plenty more room to grow for both.

But for that day to be at over 275m in presales already... I think 1 billion yuan total across all films on that day is all but guaranteed at this point.

 

Same point in time from last year.

 

This year: (I don't know real names only translated)

Crazy Alien @ 68.2M (68.8k shows) 

Speeding Life @ 62.8M (76.2k shows)

Comedy King @ 58.7M (63.8k shows)

Wandering Earth @ 26.1M (33.4k shows)

 

Total for day at 272M in presales - remarkably similar total to last year - with 333k showings already - limited room for growth now. 

 

Due to high total show count already I don't think any one can reach the same heights of last year. Overall should be a big day though.

[Somoset]

On 1/28/2019 at 10:49 AM, feasby007 said:

 

Same point in time from last year.

 

This year: (I don't know real names only translated)

Crazy Alien @ 68.2M (68.8k shows) 

Speeding Life @ 62.8M (76.2k shows)

Comedy King @ 58.7M (63.8k shows)

Wandering Earth @ 26.1M (33.4k shows)

 

Total for day at 272M in presales - remarkably similar total to last year - with 333k showings already - limited room for growth now. 

 

Due to high total show count already I don't think any one can reach the same heights of last year. Overall should be a big day though.

3

Thanks for the info. Also Speeding Life is know called Pegasus 

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Somoset said:

Thanks for the info. Also Speeding Life is know called Pegasus 

Thanks! I'll be sure to correct that in my next post.

[seduh]

Any update on CNY presales?

[peludo]

22 minutes ago, seduh said:

Any update on CNY presales?

Right now...

 

OD

Crazy Alien: 83.9m

Pegasus: 76.6m

The New King of Comedy: 74.3m

The Wandering Earth: 37.4m

The Knight of Shadows: 20.0m

Integrity: 19.0m

Peppa Pig: 16.6m

Boonie Bears: 14.1m

 

I do not know how do these figures compare to other years.

[Stewart]

On 2/12/2018 at 10:05 PM, feasby007 said:

Nope, far from it. Presales as of now:

Monster Hunt 2 - 174M

Detective Chinatown 2 - 101M

Monkey King 3 - 49M

Operation Red Sea - 32M

 

The total presales for the day is a massive 381M, it only needs a presale multiplier of 2 at the minimum to be the biggest single day ever! (Currently 806M on 28th Jan last year)

 

EDIT: Also Monkey King 3 has 44M of presales for Wednesday as well, where it appears to be the only significant opener (45% showings and 85% of box office so far)

Roughly the same time as last year...

 

Crazy Alien - 90.8M - (86,715 shows)

The New King of Comedy - 81.3M - (82,789 shows)

Pegasus - 80.9M - (92,319 shows)

The Wandering Earth - 40.8M - (46,393 shows)

The Knight of Shadows - 21.7M - (33,850 shows)

Integrity - 20.8M - (36,362 shows)

Peppa Pig - 18.4M - (26,633 shows)

Boonie Bears - 16.2M - (16,528 shows)

 

So, overall presales at a massive 375M at the moment, less than last year but more spread out. Total shows at 422k, absolutely massive and a new record (beating last years 392k). Lots of seats out there, and good to see lots of releases too.

 

With more releases and much more screens we should see a bigger total day, however the presales may fall short as none will come close to beating MH2's record from last year, and overall the total presales are just flat. Perhaps with more seats available this year the late presales will be stronger. 

 

Definitely a huge day incoming regardless.

[POTUS 2020]

11 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Roughly the same time as last year...

 

Crazy Alien - 90.8M - (86,715 shows)

The New King of Comedy - 81.3M - (82,789 shows)

Pegasus - 80.9M - (92,319 shows)

The Wandering Earth - 40.8M - (46,393 shows)

The Knight of Shadows - 21.7M - (33,850 shows)

Integrity - 20.8M - (36,362 shows)

Peppa Pig - 18.4M - (26,633 shows)

Boonie Bears - 16.2M - (16,528 shows)

 

So, overall presales at a massive 375M at the moment, less than last year but more spread out. Total shows at 422k, absolutely massive and a new record (beating last years 392k). Lots of seats out there, and good to see lots of releases too.

 

With more releases and much more screens we should see a bigger total day, however the presales may fall short as none will come close to beating MH2's record from last year, and overall the total presales are just flat. Perhaps with more seats available this year the late presales will be stronger. 

 

Definitely a huge day incoming regardless.

The PSm should be higher too with more walkups. The top 3 last year were all anticipated sequels and the PSm was just 1.88x, previous years were over 2x. If PS come in flat YoY the BO could still be 10%+ higher.

Edited February 2, 2019 by POTUS

[Stewart]

On 2/14/2018 at 7:26 PM, feasby007 said:

With 495m total presales for CNY and counting, February 16th 2018 is already the 13th highest grossing single day at the Chinese box office. It currently needs an average presale multiplier of 1.63 to top the charts. So basically it's like 99.9% locked to happen, unless this CNY performs extraordinarily oddly

Only reference I have at near-enough time. (about 3.5 hours from now)

 

24 Hours to go! (percentages relative to about 43 hours ago)

 

Crazy Alien - 130.2M, +43% - (95,692 shows)

The New King of Comedy - 101.2M, +24% - (91,124 shows)

Pegasus - 101.0M, +25% - (99,813 shows)

The Wandering Earth - 56.5M, +38% - (51,985 shows)

The Knight of Shadows - 27.5M, +27% - (36,575 shows)

Integrity - 27.4M, +32% - (39,473 shows)

Peppa Pig - 26.7M, +45% - (28,610 shows)

Boonie Bears - 25.7M, +59% - (19,266 shows)

 

Total shows: 463k (+70k from last years record)

 

Total presales at 500M which is now greater than last year! With many more shows allocated, this CNY has much more space for more people. ALSO, as @POTUS mentioned last year had sequels whereas this year top does not (to my knowledge), so PSm should hit over 2x, perhaps even stretch to 2.5x due to HOW MANY seats are actually available. 

 

Last year gained a further 180M in presales, but was more frontloaded in presales, so with more seats available and faster acceleration, we could be looking at near 700M in presales at midnight of CNY. From there it needs just 1.82x PSm, less than last year. Therefore top single day locked, most shows already locked, and potential at a ¥1.5B single day, topping last years ¥1.277B record. That would be $222m at today's ER (would've been almost $240m back in April). 

 

Looking to be a phenomenal day regardless. 

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Only reference I have at near-enough time. (about 3.5 hours from now)

 

24 Hours to go! (percentages relative to about 43 hours ago)

 

Crazy Alien - 130.2M, +43% - (95,692 shows)

The New King of Comedy - 101.2M, +24% - (91,124 shows)

Pegasus - 101.0M, +25% - (99,813 shows)

The Wandering Earth - 56.5M, +38% - (51,985 shows)

The Knight of Shadows - 27.5M, +27% - (36,575 shows)

Integrity - 27.4M, +32% - (39,473 shows)

Peppa Pig - 26.7M, +45% - (28,610 shows)

Boonie Bears - 25.7M, +59% - (19,266 shows)

 

Total shows: 463k (+70k from last years record)

 

Total presales at 500M which is now greater than last year! With many more shows allocated, this CNY has much more space for more people. ALSO, as @POTUS mentioned last year had sequels whereas this year top does not (to my knowledge), so PSm should hit over 2x, perhaps even stretch to 2.5x due to HOW MANY seats are actually available. 

 

Last year gained a further 180M in presales, but was more frontloaded in presales, so with more seats available and faster acceleration, we could be looking at near 700M in presales at midnight of CNY. From there it needs just 1.82x PSm, less than last year. Therefore top single day locked, most shows already locked, and potential at a ¥1.5B single day, topping last years ¥1.277B record. That would be $222m at today's ER (would've been almost $240m back in April). 

 

Looking to be a phenomenal day regardless. 

Can I just say that it's absolutely lunatic, that a single day in china would be #20 or so of the biggest market for a whole year, like just smaller than Poland's and Turkey's box office for a whole year...

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Can I just say that it's absolutely lunatic, that a single day in china would be #20 or so of the biggest market for a whole year, like just smaller than Poland's and Turkey's box office for a whole year...

Indeed, but also some 35m people will visit the cinema on that single day - approximately the population of Poland entirely...

[Taruseth]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Indeed, but also some 35m people will visit the cinema on that single day - approximately the population of Poland entirely...

That's crazy🤣

I guess if 1.35B people live in a country than special days are incredibly big.