pepsa Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said: So, a $100M-$110M is the current consensus? More like $85m + untill we get a better grasp on the WoM. Not that it will open that low but in china wom is everything so we can't say $95m - $105m for sure because if the reaction is bad it won't get that high. $85m however is pretty locked. Edited March 4, 2019 by pepsa 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, UserHN said: Do you monitor only the Chinese BO or do you also take a glimpse of what's happening in other international markets? Just curious 😊. I do the derby for domestic. Otherwise, just CBO because its interesting with new records being set, great runs that start small, and there is available data to analyze and project😎 Edited March 4, 2019 by POTUS 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Hmm, so 1.865x that period was added. Better than I expected honestly, I suppose that’s what I’ll update to for Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said: I do the derby for domestic. Otherwise, just CBO because its interesting with new records being set, great runs that start small, and there is available data to analyze and project😎 Honestly South Korea is also a pretty fun market to track, you have real time ps tracking. And daily grosses at 12pm or 00am. I doesn't have realtime tickets sold on the days self but we do get reports for milestones like 1 - 2 -3 -4m admission. It's not as big a China but still it has $80m grossing movies 1-3 times a year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, pepsa said: Honestly South Korea is also a pretty fun market to track, you have real time ps tracking. And daily grosses at 12pm or 00am. I doesn't have realtime tickets sold on the days self but we do get reports for milestones like 1 - 2 -3 -4m admission. It's not as big a China but still it has $80m grossing movies 1-3 times a year. how is the hype there could it hit 40-50 mill ? ( i mean total not ow) Edited March 4, 2019 by john2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 minute ago, john2000 said: how is the hype there could it hit 40-50 mill ? It has the biggest ps's for any Solo marvel movie. (Civil war isn't counted as solo movie btw) Opening is looking like 3.4m admission (about $26.5m) and the total (it doesn't have that much competition, not like antman) if received well could be 2.5 times OW so $66m but Let's say $52m- $58m is more likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, movieboner said: Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW? Given how US is currently tracking with Fandango sales, I'd say China Total < US OW is more likely than China OW > US OW. China looking like $100m+, US looking like $150m+. If US approaches $200m (BIG IF) then CN Total < US OW is plausible given shortness of legs in China. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, movieboner said: Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW? If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%. I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%. I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%. Better explained than I did. Rereading my answer I realise I fail to mention the fact that both cases presented are extreme outliers, and the US OW > CN Total is more likely than CN OW > US OW, but both are still incredibly unlikely. I'd put the chances at the moment at probably 1%, 94% and 5% personally. (In order of CN > US, middleground and US > CN Total) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said: If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%. I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%. daydream. 9.0 will be incredible for CM. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Pre-sales today have added ¥1.3mn in same time as it added ¥1.1mn yesterday. That's roughly 20% up. For comps, Venom did ¥6.91mn on Tuesday and Civil War did ¥9.1mn. If that +20% holds, will have ¥7.9mn Tuesday, though I expect it to increase, so we could see ¥8.75-9.25mn IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: daydream. 9.0 will be incredible for CM. Yeah, I would be pretty happy with 8.9. The context was explaining just how unlikely what they were asking about was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 If, feminism worked for the film. I won't be surprised with 9.2 plus. Currently over 60% of tickets sold are male and that should go toward 50% on opening day IMO as Women's day will be there and there we could see a jump in walk-ins. From the Indian films I tracked, I have noticed that films having more female Audience had better legs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Pre-sales today have added ¥1.3mn in same time as it added ¥1.1mn yesterday. That's roughly 20% up. For comps, Venom did ¥6.91mn on Tuesday and Civil War did ¥9.1mn. If that +20% holds, will have ¥7.9mn Tuesday, though I expect it to increase, so we could see ¥8.75-9.25mn IMO. Sunday after midnight sales (adds to Mon total) were a tad stronger than Mon after midnight (adds to Tues total) which skews things slightly. I’ve got: yesterday 7-10 +27 10-11 +44 Today 7-10 +44 10-11 +62 I think gains will pace around +40-50% from yesterday, leading to about +9/10 midnight. Looking for benchmarks of about 14:00 24.2, 17:30 26.3, 30.2 midnight. Spoiler 7:00 21.37 8:00 21.41 8:33 21.445 9:02 21.56 9:32 21.66 10:03 21.81 10:30 22.02 11:02 22.43 11:30 22.74 12:02 23.02 12:30 Frozen 13:00 23.31 13:32 23.80 14:00 Frozen 14:12 24.17 14:30 Frozen 15:30 24.88 16:00 25.13 16:30 25.46 17:00 25.67 17:30 26.15 14:00 update: Maoyan has been a little jerkier than usual today, at least for me. But we’re pretty much right on track with my benchmark above, so no change to estimate. Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 (edited) Expecting 2 Days Out ¥30.50 1 Day Out ¥44.00 Final ¥77.00 Midnight ¥15mn Opening Day ¥260mn Saturday ¥280mn Sunday ¥220mn Total ¥775mn Edited March 5, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brinatico Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Expecting 2 Days Out ¥30.50 1 Day Out ¥44.00 Final ¥77.00 Midnight ¥15mn Opening Day ¥260mn Saturday ¥280mn Sunday ¥220mn Total ¥775mn What happens if you prediction free fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: If, feminism worked for the film. I won't be surprised with 9.2 plus. Currently over 60% of tickets sold are male and that should go toward 50% on opening day IMO as Women's day will be there and there we could see a jump in walk-ins. From the Indian films I tracked, I have noticed that films having more female Audience had better legs. Females definitely have better legs. Tracking 31m for today. It finally reached 50% of shows at 83k. A lot of shows still to be listed, could be 50%+ tomorrow and 80%+ on thur. I think it clears 80m. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: Females definitely have better legs. Tracking 31m for today. It finally reached 50% of shows at 83k. A lot of shows still to be listed, could be 50%+ tomorrow and 80%+ on thur. I think it clears 80m. Is your prediction for China OW increasing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 (edited) I think I’ll go milder with 30mn, but it’s been a bit of an annoying unevenly stop-and-start day so I’m not sure if the display is even caught up to the reality of tickets sold as I go to bed right now. Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...