Cooper Legion Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: F9 does now fall behind TF5 at the same point in advance ticket sale of opening weekend. Does it? On Maoyan app I’m seeing TF5 at 21.55 the same distance out Edited May 16, 2021 by WandaLegion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, WandaLegion said: Does it? On Maoyan app I’m seeing TF5 at 21.55 the same distance out Gavin tracks overall pre-sales while we track OD PS. Its OD PS that matters usually unless SAT is being big as eventually on Friday WOM will decide where SAT will go, no matter how big or small PS were. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 This gotta be most accurate to projection run I have tracked in while. Every day is right where it was expected a day before. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: This gotta be most accurate to projection run I have tracked in while. Every day is right where it was expected a day before. Maoyan data people saw your post just like Deadline. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Maoyan data people saw your post just like Deadline. I didn't understand it clearly Gavin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 (edited) Fast 9 T-4 Days Midnight - ¥9M on 13.8K shows Friday - ¥25M (+¥4M) on 128K shows Saturday - ¥9.2M on 83K shows Sunday - ¥2.8M on 65K shows Total - ¥46M ($7.15M) Comp OD 52.6% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥219M 158% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥393M MN 67% of The Fate of the Furious - ¥43M 197% of Hobbs and Shaw - ¥69M Same. Same. Same. Edited May 16, 2021 by charlie Jatinder 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 My prediction 4 days out. MN - 55 OD - 300 Sat - 310 Sun - 240 Total -905M ($140m) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 What F9 make in advance ticket sale is now: - 161% of H&S. (¥1080M opening) - 96% of TF5. (¥836M opening) - 50% of F8. (¥676M opening) - 29% of IW (¥368M opening) It doesn't seem like that F9 could hit ¥400M daily mark. Actually, it's not even very clear if it could make ¥300M and ¥350M on FRI and SAT, respectively. In other words, ¥1B opening is very unlikely from what we've seen. ¥900M opening somehow is not a great target either. It usually require a import movie to make ¥180M-plus in advance ticket sale considering the formula: ad ticket sale / opening weekend > 20% (mostly it's for huge movies) ¥800M-level opening should be the most likely result at this point. Even if its SAT is just ¥300M, it's not hard for the movie to do ¥230M on FRI or SUN with conservative prediction of ¥40M from midnights. Of course, it would be another story if WOM is not well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 And it's fair to say that this is a bad sign for HLW in some ways. When local blockbusters are looking at 3 or 4 or 5 billion lifetime even Wolf Warrior 2, the era of 2 billion of HLW is leaving(maybe they never really enter that period). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: And it's fair to say that this is a bad sign for HLW in some ways. When local blockbusters are looking at 3 or 4 or 5 billion lifetime even Wolf Warrior 2, the era of 2 billion of HLW is leaving(maybe they never really enter that period). TBH I was actually expecting this drop, not withstanding any general decline for Hollywood. There was decline in almost all markets for FF8 and there was gonna be a drop for F9 as well. I think GvK showed that market isnt dead for Hollywood, though decline is there as most countries saw it beating Kong: Skull Island but China fall short of K:SI admits. Edited May 17, 2021 by charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Another day going exactly as expected. I was basing the trend on Hobbs and Shaw, which had very backloaded pre-sales for franchise and surprisingly BIG PSm for the franchise. I hope PSm won't be that crazy but I guess we may see a 2.8-3x PSm instead of 2.65x of FF8. If the PS trend continue to behave as how Hobbs and Shaw projection is telling, it will have 105M OD PS and from there 2.8-3x gives 295-315M OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: TBH I was actually expecting this drop, not withstanding any general decline for Hollywood. There was decline in almost all markets for FF8 and there was gonna be a drop for F9 as well. I think GvK showed that market isnt dead for Hollywood, though decline is there as most countries saw it beating Kong: Skull Island but China fall short of K:SI admits. Agree. But still, dying to survive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Hollywood is... on life support, in China. I see today falling a bit short with maybe 31.7, vs 32.2 projected. Expecting 95M final OD PS for maybe 275 OD. 800-900 definitely making sense for the weekend unless something notable happens with final days or reception. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 (edited) 44 minutes ago, WandaLegion said: Hollywood is... on life support, in China. I see today falling a bit short with maybe 31.7, vs 32.2 projected. Expecting 95M final OD PS for maybe 275 OD. 800-900 definitely making sense for the weekend unless something notable happens with final days or reception. 120-140 ow seems great to me , maybe i am being weird 😕 Edited May 17, 2021 by john2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, john2000 said: 120-140 ow seems great to me , maybe i am being weird 😕 for any non-Avengers movie this would have been HUGE. but its also Furious 9, last film of franchise did $210M of today's currency and $240M adjusted for inflation. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 What's the chances F9 opens below $100 mil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: What's the chances F9 opens below $100 mil? will need PSm below FF8 and really bad WOM. ER are really good at $1=6.45 so it has really no chance of missing $100M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said: Agree. But still, dying to survive I think that's position almost everywhere with Disney films doing majority bizz and others just struggling with rare wins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 Yeah it's not a great sign for Hollywood. Still, I won't declare anything fully dead until we see how things go with normal simultaneous global releases in the fall. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 I will pass any comment after Spiderman 3 and Venom 2 release only. Not too confident on BW, and who knows if Eternals will release even. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
