Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard?date=2019-05-09&movieId=346629

 

it just says 403 forbidden for me. If you have link. Can you share it bruh 

 

The link you have is correct, and it worked when I clicked it. May 10 is sitting at about $108,000 right now. 

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The link you have is correct, and it worked when I clicked it. May 10 is sitting at about $108,000 right now. 

Thanks bro. I just gotta restart my phone and it will prob work 

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/24/2019 at 9:56 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 40.5k

OD - 478k (+267%)  (8265 shows)

Sat - 150.8k

Sun - 155.1k

Detective Pikachu (13 days out)

 

Midnight - 117k

OD - 950k  (12477 shows)

Sat - 345k

Sun - 329k

 

Sorry I couldnt get yesterday's update. Between my MCU marathon and general excitement to see Endgame, I completely forgot about this. Anyways DP still chugging along but very slowly. I have never seen an initial PS run so slow even 5 days after starting. As again, its not due to lack of anticipation or interest but due to a lack of show times allotted. For example, MI6 and Bumblebee, both recent movies which had a very long PS run like DP, had 30k shows opened after 5 days of PS run compared to just 12.5k for DP.

 

This makes extrapolation and prediction based on PS impossible at this time. Hopefully though the real PS run will start from Monday onwards. 

[Perfundle]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (13 days out)

 

Midnight - 117k

OD - 950k  (12477 shows)

Sat - 345k

Sun - 329k

 

Sorry I couldnt get yesterday's update. Between my MCU marathon and general excitement to see Endgame, I completely forgot about this. Anyways DP still chugging along but very slowly. I have never seen an initial PS run so slow even 5 days after starting. As again, its not due to lack of anticipation or interest but due to a lack of show times allotted. For example, MI6 and Bumblebee, both recent movies which had a very long PS run like DP, had 30k shows opened after 5 days of PS run compared to just 12.5k for DP.

 

This makes extrapolation and prediction based on PS impossible at this time. Hopefully though the real PS run will start from Monday onwards. 

If I'm reading the numbers right, that's not true for Bumblebee.

 

DP's presales

Bumblebee's presales

MI6's presales

 

So as you said, DP has 948k with 12474 shows on its fifth day. MI6 is indeed higher with 2142k with 23231 shows, but Bumblebee is comparable to DP with 672k with 14329 shows.

 

As for chugging along slowly, Alita did the same thing. After day 6 of presales, or 13 days before opening day (same as DP), it had a quarter as many presales with half as many shows, and it still opened higher than Bumblebee.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Perfundle

[Minnale101]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (13 days out)

 

Midnight - 117k

OD - 950k  (12477 shows)

Sat - 345k

Sun - 329k

 

Sorry I couldnt get yesterday's update. Between my MCU marathon and general excitement to see Endgame, I completely forgot about this. Anyways DP still chugging along but very slowly. I have never seen an initial PS run so slow even 5 days after starting. As again, its not due to lack of anticipation or interest but due to a lack of show times allotted. For example, MI6 and Bumblebee, both recent movies which had a very long PS run like DP, had 30k shows opened after 5 days of PS run compared to just 12.5k for DP.

 

This makes extrapolation and prediction based on PS impossible at this time. Hopefully though the real PS run will start from Monday onwards. 

Thanks bro for this 

[ZeeSoh]

19 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

If I'm reading the numbers right, that's not true for Bumblebee.

 

DP's presales

Bumblebee's presales

MI6's presales

 

So as you said, DP has 948k with 12474 shows on its fifth day. MI6 is indeed higher with 2142k with 23231 shows, but Bumblebee is comparable to DP with 672k with 14329 shows.

 

As for chugging along slowly, Alita did the same thing. After day 6 of presales, or 13 days before opening day (same as DP), it had a quarter as many presales with half as many shows, and it still opened higher than Bumblebee.

I go by my numbers which I post daily. But it seems like I missed a few early days of Bumblebee. As for Alita and others I dont hVe my laptop atm with me where all my numbers are so cant comment. But DP’s expectations are far higher than Alita’s so doing.similar to Alita and opening in its vicinity is not something to look forward to. But i expect DP’s numbers to accelerate from Monday onwards as I have been saying all along. 

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Thanks bro for this 

No problem mate. Always happy to track presales in China

[Minnale101]

Bumblebee was at 1.01 million OD with 20652 shows 

 

detective pikachu is at 950k OD with

 

12 477 shows 

 

To be 50k less with less than 8200 shows seems positive to me

 

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Minnale101

[Perfundle]

10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I go by my numbers which I post daily. But it seems like I missed a few early days of Bumblebee. As for Alita and others I dont hVe my laptop atm with me where all my numbers are so cant comment. But DP’s expectations are far higher than Alita’s so doing.similar to Alita and opening in its vicinity is not something to look forward to. But i expect DP’s numbers to accelerate from Monday onwards as I have been saying all along.

I mean, Bumblebee, MI6 and Alita all made between $130 and $170 million, so if you're going to compare it to the first two I don't see why you wouldn't include Alita as well.

 

But OK, surely Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom's gross is a good target to shoot for? It also had a long presale run, and here are its presales. After 5 days it was at 1147k with 15272 shows, which is pretty comparable to DP's as well. It also made far more than MI6 on its OW despite worse 5th-day presale numbers, so it seems there's just really high variability with presales.

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

I mean, Bumblebee, MI6 and Alita all made between $130 and $170 million, so if you're going to compare it to the first two I don't see why you wouldn't include Alita as well.

 

But OK, surely Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom's gross is a good target to shoot for? It also had a long presale run, and here are its presales. After 5 days it was at 1147k with 15272 shows, which is pretty comparable to DP's as well. It also made far more than MI6 on its OW despite worse 5th-day presale numbers, so it seems there's just really high variability with presales.

I was going by what some insiders here mentioned about DP’s anticipation and what it could make (250-300). I myself have no idea what to expect (but expecting big numbers nonetheless). 

[KP1025]

6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I was going by what some insiders here mentioned about DP’s anticipation and what it could make (250-300). I myself have no idea what to expect (but expecting big numbers nonetheless). 

After the Beijing premier, Gavin mentioned that the distributor expects $150 million total. 

[cdsacken]

8 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I go by my numbers which I post daily. But it seems like I missed a few early days of Bumblebee. As for Alita and others I dont hVe my laptop atm with me where all my numbers are so cant comment. But DP’s expectations are far higher than Alita’s so doing.similar to Alita and opening in its vicinity is not something to look forward to. But i expect DP’s numbers to accelerate from Monday onwards as I have been saying all along. 

No problem mate. Always happy to track presales in China

Agreed. Alita numbers for Pikachu would be very disappointing and could easily spell out 500 WW total. It also had above 2.0 legs not something DP should assume it will get. Hope it opens at least 20 million higher on OW.

 

Imo 250 seems very unlikely. I will go 175 and I feel that's being optimistic.

Edited April 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[Minnale101]

Detective pikachu did 

 

160k OD with 928 shows added yesterday 

 

the rate are they adding shows per day makes it unfun to track right now. 

 

Maybe waiting closer to release 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Minnale101

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/26/2019 at 10:34 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (13 days out)

 

Midnight - 117k

OD - 950k  (12477 shows)

Sat - 345k

Sun - 329k

 

Sorry I couldnt get yesterday's update. Between my MCU marathon and general excitement to see Endgame, I completely forgot about this. Anyways DP still chugging along but very slowly. I have never seen an initial PS run so slow even 5 days after starting. As again, its not due to lack of anticipation or interest but due to a lack of show times allotted. For example, MI6 and Bumblebee, both recent movies which had a very long PS run like DP, had 30k shows opened after 5 days of PS run compared to just 12.5k for DP.

 

This makes extrapolation and prediction based on PS impossible at this time. Hopefully though the real PS run will start from Monday onwards. 

Detective Pikachu (12 days out)

 

Midnight - 136k

OD - 1.11m (+16.8%)  (13409 shows)

Sat - 480k

Sun - 340k

 

Almost completely forgot about today's update. Below are some comps for some other movies 12 days out

 

MI6             - 3.70 (31973 shows) (Final PS 48.69)

Bumblebee - 2.54 (34500 shows) (Final PS 27?)

SMH            - 1.15 (23391 shows) (Final PS 36)

 

Including Spiderman Homecoming as it is the closest to where DP is right now. If it follows SMH's trajectory it will get to 36m final PS and an OW around 70m. This will be good for Pikachu but I am hoping for better. 

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (12 days out)

 

Midnight - 136k

OD - 1.11m (+16.8%)  (13409 shows)

Sat - 480k

Sun - 340k

 

Almost completely forgot about today's update. Below are some comps for some other movies 12 days out

 

MI6             - 3.70 (31973 shows) (Final PS 48.69)

Bumblebee - 2.54 (34500 shows) (Final PS 27?)

SMH            - 1.15 (23391 shows) (Final PS 36)

 

Including Spiderman Homecoming as it is the closest to where DP is right now. If it follows SMH's trajectory it will get to 36m final PS and an OW around 70m. This will be good for Pikachu but I am hoping for better. 

Maybe it could have good legs with good WOM and leg out 130 or more?

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (12 days out)

 

Midnight - 136k

OD - 1.11m (+16.8%)  (13409 shows)

Sat - 480k

Sun - 340k

 

Almost completely forgot about today's update. Below are some comps for some other movies 12 days out

 

MI6             - 3.70 (31973 shows) (Final PS 48.69)

Bumblebee - 2.54 (34500 shows) (Final PS 27?)

SMH            - 1.15 (23391 shows) (Final PS 36)

 

Including Spiderman Homecoming as it is the closest to where DP is right now. If it follows SMH's trajectory it will get to 36m final PS and an OW around 70m. This will be good for Pikachu but I am hoping for better. 

With detective pikachu first week of pre sales doing same week as Endgame first week release

 

Do you think that mean detective pikachu wil have higher up tick in pre sales in final week of tracking more than other movies usually do ?

 

 

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Maybe it could have good legs with good WOM and leg out 130 or more?

If it opens to 70 million then a total of 130m would mean only a 1.85x multi. With good WoM and good legs as you say I dont see why it couldnt go higher. Again it depends on ratings

5 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

With detective pikachu first week of pre sales doing same week as Endgame first week release

 

Do you think that mean detective pikachu wil have higher up tick in pre sales in final week of tracking more than other movies usually do ?

 

 

It could. But there is no way of knowing if it will until we see next week's presales. I don't know when its review embargo drops, but if it drops before China's opening then a great score can boost presales. If there are any press screenings in China before opening (I dont know if there are) and if word is great from the screening then that too will boost its presales run.

 

But for now let's stick with a trajectory similar to the movies I mentioned above. From there all will depend on how good the movie and WoM is. If the ratings are great, say as great as Aquaman, and even if it only does 36m in presales it would still open with 95+ million. 

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

If it opens to 70 million then a total of 130m would mean only a 1.85x multi. With good WoM and good legs as you say I dont see why it couldnt go higher. Again it depends on ratings

It could. But there is no way of knowing if it will until we see next week's presales. I don't know when its review embargo drops, but if it drops before China's opening then a great score can boost presales. If there are any press screenings in China before opening (I dont know if there are) and if word is great from the screening then that too will boost its presales run.

 

But for now let's stick with a trajectory similar to the movies I mentioned above. From there all will depend on how good the movie and WoM is. If the ratings are great, say as great as Aquaman, and even if it only does 36m in presales it would still open with 95+ million. 

That’s true.

 

the movie actually releases May 3rd in japan. So if movie gets reviewed well over there. Maybe WOM helps it increase in China 

 

but yeah endgame having this record breaking opening of 340 million during first week of pre sales. 

 

the circumstances is hard to judge where it ends up with final pre sales 

[Minnale101]

Just like Shazam. A Indian movie is releasing same day detective pikachu 

 

but unlike Aandhadhun.

 

Mom is only just a average to above average movie 

 

Aandhadhun was considered the best movie of 2018 in India. It was fantastic 

[Nova]

The biggest thing for Detective Pikachu isn't just the presales but the WOM in my opinion. It could have great presales but if the WOM isn't so hot it could drop like a rock. Whereas it can have average/decent presales and get really good WOM and thus do very well. Will have to see where the presales are headed, of course, but the WOM it gets is just as important (in my opinion, at least) 

 

 

[cdsacken]

Hard to say what GA will think about it. Hardcore fan appeal isn't enough. I'm still hoping for 175 China and 200+ US total.

 

Edited April 28, 2019 by cdsacken