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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Good pickup in pace and seems like may hit $250mn as well, which will be an impressive ¥65mn final day.

 

Now, I will be making a final post at midnight but before that have few things to say.

 

Unfortunately we don't have admissions pre-sale data for Infinity War but more than ¥s its tickets that should be analysed. A:EG will have OD around 40% over A:IW in term of money but in term of tickets its less than 10%, in fact could be same only.

 

Now, many of us will be thinking that the since numbers are very high for A:EG its Psm shall lower but in reality EG has sold similar tickets as A:IW only. This gives EG room to have similar walk-in as IW.

 

But there is another factor, i.e. despite having much bigger hype and 20% more tickets to sell, tickets sold are just same as A:IW. Considering this, it is not wise to expect same walk-in as IW. Also since its Wednesday release and not Friday, noon shows will be not as strong as Friday.

 

Considering that, we know that A:IW sold about 17% of its potential tickets in pre-sale while A:EG will be around 15%, i.e. 88% approx. Accounting for weekday release factor, I expect the walk-in to be 70-75% of A:IW i.e. 4-4.5mn Approx. Which will give opening day admission of 8.5-9mn and a gross of ¥400-430mn.

 

 

I do want to say if you take the numbers of MN you can't compare with any other movie because all those numbers are numbers from 3am on OD.

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Presales for weekend alone has crossed $100M!!

 

Let's see if it can do $100M OD (including midnights). That would be really amazing. Would require something like 180M+ midnights and 490M+ Wednesday. Tough, but not impossible.

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What are they going to charge for walkups though? When you gouge people too hard you deserve to leave money on the table. 

 

It's like airbnbs that go up 400% for certain dates. I literally avoid them even for good price days. Bad business.

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8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Good pickup in pace and seems like may hit $250mn as well, which will be an impressive ¥65mn final day.

 

Now, I will be making a final post at midnight but before that have few things to say.

 

Unfortunately we don't have admissions pre-sale data for Infinity War but more than ¥s its tickets that should be analysed. A:EG will have OD around 40% over A:IW in term of money but in term of tickets its less than 10%, in fact could be same only.

 

Now, many of us will be thinking that the since numbers are very high for A:EG its Psm shall lower but in reality EG has sold similar tickets as A:IW only. This gives EG room to have similar walk-in as IW.

 

But there is another factor, i.e. despite having much bigger hype and 20% more tickets to sell, tickets sold are just same as A:IW. Considering this, it is not wise to expect same walk-in as IW. Also since its Wednesday release and not Friday, noon shows will be not as strong as Friday.

 

Considering that, we know that A:IW sold about 17% of its potential tickets in pre-sale while A:EG will be around 15%, i.e. 88% approx. Accounting for weekday release factor, I expect the walk-in to be 70-75% of A:IW i.e. 4-4.5mn Approx. Which will give opening day admission of 8.5-9mn and a gross of ¥400-430mn.

 

 

Is MN attendance going to be 50% larger? Hard to say with the prices so high.  If that many more are willing to go to MN then I would think a similar increase of people will be willing to see it midday or late.  I assume school is out between 2-4pm.  20% more shows for students to fill up.

My concern is the PSm also.  WC saw the lowest MN same day bump at 57% but still saw an OD 2.62 PSm 

With EG MN bumping just 30%~ I do wonder if OD will be below MH2's 1.86

 

 

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