Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Rebeccas]

Detective Pikachu is full of American detective movie in-jokes. It may not translate that well humor-wise.

[Gavin Feng]

Dark Phoenix $100M for 4 days opening considering it will be the first marvel film after Endgame.

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Detective Pikachu is full of American detective movie in-jokes. It may not translate that well humor-wise.

So will run into the same issues as Shazam 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

Dark Phoenix $100M for 4 days opening considering it will be the first marvel film after Endgame.

 

Woudnt that be terrible for Godzilla? If Dark Phoenix opens to 100M over 4 Days we can probably say goodbye to Big G's chances at 250M+

[Cookson]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Woudnt that be terrible for Godzilla? If Dark Phoenix opens to 100M over 4 Days we can probably say goodbye to Big G's chances at 250M+

To me it seems Godzilla has a shot at at 150-180m opening(weekend)in China. I think 250+ is probably easily going to happen. 

[Minnale101]

I think the difference is people are Going into detective pikachu as a comedy movie unlike Shazam 

[Legion Again]

37 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Dark Phoenix $100M for 4 days opening considering it will be the first marvel film after Endgame.

People won’t know that it has nothing to do with Endgame? Or just won’t care?

[lorddemaxus]

43 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

So will run into the same issues as Shazam 

The difference is that Pikachu likely has 10 times the amount of action and fanservice. It isn't like the Marvel movies don't have Americanised jokes. But they still do a huge amount of money because of fanservice and action. I mean, there is no other explanation for why something like Ant-Man does well (it did also have the family element though but so does Pikachu considering that it is about finding the main character's dad).

Edited May 2, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[HouseOfTheSun]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

The difference is that Pikachu likely has 10 times the amount of action and fanservice. It isn't like the Marvel movies don't have Americanised jokes. But they still do a huge amount of money because of fanservice and action. I mean, there is no other explanation for why something like Ant-Man does well (it did also have the family element though but so does Pikachu considering that it is about finding the main character's dad).

Antman has some pretty unique visuals with the shrinking stuff. Pokémon action is likely just a beam off like most of the anime is. And Shazam has more family oriented stuff than any superhero movie I remember seeing. Maybe you’re right but at this point with Presales and general vibe of the movie I’m not seeing an Uber massive breakout. I’ll stick with say...120m or so. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[ZeeSoh]

22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Detective Pikachu (8 days out)

 

Midnight - 209k

OD - 2.11m (+17.2%)  (20814 shows)

Sat - 556k

Sun - 372k

 

From the table below DP is close to Alita and Shazam in nearly every count. Alita finished with 33m in presales and Shazam finished at 24.5m in PS. If DP follows Alita, it will land at 35m+ PS and 30s if it follows Shazam. That seems good enough if your expectations are 100-125m in final gross but if expectations are close to 250-300m then it should be doing better. Now the low PS does not necessarily mean a low OW and a low gross. Aquaman for instance ended its PS run at 35m and went on to do nearly 100m in OW and 300m in final gross. So if DP manages such high ratings then it too can go that high. But Aquaman was more the exception than the norm. Norm would suggest a 50-60m opening weekend and 100-130m final total.

 

	OD PS	Midnight PS	Sat PS	Sun PS	Show Count	Day of presale
MI6	6.5m	952k	2.17m	1.31m	40658	14th day
Ant Man 2	4.09m	828k	1.69m	1.26m	36966	7th day
Bumblebee	3.6m	670k	1.87m	1.41m	45639	17th day
SMH	3.0m	-	-	-	-	7h day
Alita	2.48m	432k	1.08m	590k	23939	11th day
DP	2.11m	314k	620k	390k	22407	11th day
Shazam	1.2m	432k	518k	474k	23532	3nd day

 

Detective Pikachu (7 days out)

 

Midnight - 368k

OD - 2.48m (+17.5%)  (24433 shows)

Sat - 688k

Sun - 403k

 

DP continues to weaken against those comparisons in the table. Wouldnt panic just yet but if it continues like this past Sunday then that is a cause for concern.

 

	OD PS	Midnight PS	Sat PS	Sun PS	Show Count	Day of presale
MI6	7.36m	1.02m	2.35m	1.4m	42897	15th day
Ant Man 2	4.81m	952k	1.88m	1.34m	39593	8th day
Bumblebee	4.2m	718k	2.16m	1.6m	47900	18th day
Alita	3.15m	538k	1.27m	647k	28400	12th day
DP	2.48m	368k	688k	403k	24433	12th day
Shazam	1.58m	592k	636k	582k	29085	4nd day

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I think Godzilla has a good chance of killing Dark Pheonix in China.

DP comes after Godzilla. It will steal Gozilla's screens affecting its legs. 

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Woudnt that be terrible for Godzilla? If Dark Phoenix opens to 100M over 4 Days we can probably say goodbye to Big G's chances at 250M+

Good news for both is that they are opening on/around a holiday weekend. Dark Phoenix opens during the Dragon Boat festival weekend whereas Godzilla opens a week earlier. Thanks to the festival Godzilla's legs may not be that affected by DP but I think DP has the date advantage here. And if DP's reception is good then Godzilla will suffer even more

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

To me it seems Godzilla has a shot at at 150-180m opening(weekend)in China. I think 250+ is probably easily going to happen. 

Last one opened to 37m. I know market has grown a lot in the past 5 years but it has not grown THAT much. Not even big movies like Venom, Aquaman, Jurassic World 2 managed an opening that high so why would this. I feel safe enough to say that its not going to open that high.

Edited May 2, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[Minnale101]

Lack of show count is bit annoying but I understand with how big Endgame is right now it’s hard to plan ahead for others 

 

reviews drop 9:30pm EST

 

so China time 9:30am Friday 

 

if it’s positive then hopefully weekend can much bigger increases 

 

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

41 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

And Shazam has more family oriented stuff than any superhero movie I remember seeing. 

Foster families though. I'm not even sure if there are Foster families in China. I don't think they would find that relatable at all.

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Foster families though. I'm not even sure if there are Foster families in China. I don't think they would find that relatable at all.

Having seen movie at screening. I don’t think movie has Americanized humour. I think he may have got confused with kiddish humor 

 

like there a few fart and pee jokes in it but I mean there some in shrek and lion king too

 

its childish humour not American humor

 

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Minnale101

[Cookson]

I don’t think you can really compare G14 to KotM. 5 years is 5 years and this new one is way more action oriented 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

People won’t know that it has nothing to do with Endgame? Or just won’t care?

I think more than the X-Men brand is actually still quite strong in China. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I think more than the X-Men brand is actually still quite strong in China. 

Well, I've been expecting Dark Phoenix to do solid since the Fox-men generally are still healthy in China. Gavin seemed to be implying that it would be helped by Endgame, despite being totally unrelated franchise-wise, so I was inquiring about how that would work.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well, I've been expecting Dark Phoenix to do solid since the Fox-men generally are still healthy in China. Gavin seemed to be implying that it would be helped by Endgame, despite being totally unrelated franchise-wise, so I was inquiring about how that would work.

I'm wondering with how Venom, Aquaman and now Endgame (soz Shazam) have done whether we can make the case the superhero genre has gotten more popular in China. I'm so curious how Far From Home does considering Homecoming's meh to bad reception in China.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I'm wondering with how Venom, Aquaman and now Endgame (soz Shazam) have done whether we can make the case the superhero genre has gotten more popular in China. I'm so curious how Far From Home does considering Homecoming's meh to bad reception in China.

CM’s legs weren’t great but it also performed significantly above the SH “ceiling” of 90-120M USD or so.     

 

I really hope that after Infinity War Chinese audiences are willing to give Spider-Man another shot and that FFH is more to their tastes than SMH.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Dark Phoenix $100M for 4 days opening considering it will be the first marvel film after Endgame.

Actually, I am surprised by the high interested count on Bookmyshow as well in India.

 

Hopefully DP won't hurt FFH as next Marvel film

 

[Minnale101]

There was a noticeable jump today with Detective pikachu. Could be the reviews or movie finally starting to gain momentum