Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

And you think Antman was in the same league as TDK?

$500 million is a lot, even ignoring ER. TFA would have made $2.2 billion with 2012 ER.

 

I'm not taking a stance.

 

I'm just clarifying people's position.

[seduh]

great number, +$170 is on track. 

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

So civil war is performing like an avengers movie? That is exactly what they wanted and expected. 

 

Expectations went from 185 m to 215 m recently.

 

So now 190 m is a let down for some.

[grim22]

Just realized we will have 4 100M+ OWs this year already with plenty more to come, in 2014 we had 2 100M+ OWs the whole year. Last year has the record with 6 100M+ OWs. This year could easily eclipse that.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, seduh said:

great number, +$170 is on track. 

 

Oh the meltdowns if this doesn't beat IM3.

[tonytr87]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Expectations went from 185 m to 215 m recently.

 

So now 190 m is a let down for some.

 

Is there a reason a lot of people here never learn? 

[Lestranger]

 

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Expectations went from 185 m to 215 m recently.

 

So now 190 m is a let down for some.

 

What I am confused about is how we got from 180s to well over 200s. There were tons of articles saying this and the conventional wisdom shifted in like a few days. Was this based on any actual data coming in?

[filmlover]

Just now, tonytr87 said:

 

Is there a reason a lot of people here never learn? 

Because expectations always get the best of some and so they turn around and blame the movie instead of sucking it up. It's like clockwork.

[scoobysaurus]

23 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

TFA did 2 billion WW, the avengers did 1,5 . Another league my ass ....

 

Star Wars enjoys phenomenal popularity in developed markets but WW the only movie that's truly in a league of its own is Avatar. 

[Cynosure]

Just now, scoobysaurus said:

 

Star Wars enjoys phenomenal popularity in developed markets but WW the only movie that's truly in a league of its own is Avatar. 

 

Titanic is in an even higher league.

[Thrylos 7]

Just now, scoobysaurus said:

 

Star Wars enjoys phenomenal popularity in developed markets but WW the only movie that's truly in a league of its own is Avatar. 

With this I can agree .

[Truckasaurus]

Taking a look at the three movies that passed $200M on their opening weekends, I sense a pattern: they all mixed brand awareness with novelty. Not only that, but most of them have been built up for longer than most movies. TFA essentially revives a 32 year old dormant franchise (well, technically 10 year old, but since the movie's a direct sequel of ROTJ, that's what I'm counting), the last Jurassic movie came out 14 years ago and TA had a 4-year marketing campaign that culminated in a superhero mashup the likes we've never seen before. I'm not sure CW has the same novelty factor.

 

That's all to say that I'm more skeptical of the film reaching the coveted $200M mark. A $180-195M range is the reasonable way to go if you look at the data. Of course, there are other factors in play, like WOM (and having seen the film, despite not loving it, I'm aware this is going to play like gangbusters), but sometimes, it's nice to keep our expectations in check. 

Edited May 6, 2016 by Truckasaurus

[grey ghost]

Just now, Lestranger said:

 

 

What I am confused about is how we got from 180s to well over 200s. There were tons of articles saying this and the conventional wisdom shifted in like a few days. Was this based on any actual data coming in?

 

Unlike AOU, I don't recall too many legitimate sources tracking CW above 205 m OW.

[ecstasy]

3 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Is there a reason a lot of people here never learn? 

 

They just get excited. Happens to every big anticipated movie.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Unlike AOU, I don't recall too many legitimate sources tracking CW above 205 m OW.

 

I don't remember which one, but didn't one of the trades have it at 210?

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Is there a reason a lot of people here never learn? 

 

Since Christmas, TFA, Deadpool and Jungle Book all did better than expected.

[Thrylos 7]

26 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:

500m WW is lot.  That like saying 500m WW and 1B WW are in the same league. 

2 billion to 1.5 billion is not the same with 1 billion to 0. 5 billion .  One is double the other not 30% more . Nevermind that previous recent sw movies have lost badly to marvel movies . I am in awe about that comment and the likes it got but I guess people will leave common sense and logic behind just to support an argument . 

[The Futurist]

Doing a 190m OW would be exactly Winter Soldier OW * 2.

 

[RichWS]

Anybody who whines about being disappointed if it doesn't beat Avengers 1: Your expectations were foolish and no one wants to hear it.

[Jordanstine]

Having fun with numbers, and I know this opened in April but...

 

Winter Soldier: $10.2 previews / $95.0 weekend = 9.3x

 

Civil War: $25.0 previews * 9.3x = $232.5 weekend

Okay j/k but still... BKB!