MEH-MORIAL DAY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE | Abandon all hope, the box office is dead. 3 day weekend #s X-Men 65M, Alice 28.1M, Angry Birds 18.7M, Civil War 15.1M, Neighbors 9.1M. Bad openings, horrible holdovers.

[HurriKaty]

I don't even think the box office is dead a little.  The movies that came out this weekend weren't exactly the most interesting.  But look at this year alone and what it's done.  Star Wars, Zootopia, Jungle Book, have all done fantastic.  Also yes I know SW was technically released last year but it grossed most of it's money in 16.    X Men has never been as big of a franchise as the rest of the Marvel Universe, and the first Alice movie was definitely helped by the fact that Burton was waaaay trendier back in 2010.   And furthermore neither of them are reviewing well which while it doesn't count for everything counts for a bit.

But I'm enjoying watching this thread burn to the ground.

[CJohn]

I don't even need to see what FOX will estimate for the 4 day weekend: 80M. Only to drop 2-3M when actuals come.

[HurriKaty]

Also Zootopia dropped below 1m finally.  It was bound to happen eventually but damn.  

Had such a great run.

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, HurriKaty said:

Also Zootopia dropped below 1m finally.  It was bound to happen eventually but damn.  

Had such a great run.

Still in the top 10. And actuals aren't in yet.

[cannastop]

20 minutes ago, HurriKaty said:

I don't even think the box office is dead a little.  The movies that came out this weekend weren't exactly the most interesting.  But look at this year alone and what it's done.  Star Wars, Zootopia, Jungle Book, have all done fantastic.  Also yes I know SW was technically released last year but it grossed most of it's money in 16.    X Men has never been as big of a franchise as the rest of the Marvel Universe, and the first Alice movie was definitely helped by the fact that Burton was waaaay trendier back in 2010.   And furthermore neither of them are reviewing well which while it doesn't count for everything counts for a bit.

But I'm enjoying watching this thread burn to the ground.

No, it did not.

[peludo]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

No, it did not.

Exact. It already was at $651m by the end of the year, a 70% of the total.

[HurriKaty]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

No, it did not.

Could you give me a run down? I had just woke up and was totally brain estimating.  I forgot it had that ridiculous opening weekend.

Or at least link me to one.  Hah.

Edited May 30, 2016 by HurriKaty

[HurriKaty]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Still in the top 10. And actuals aren't in yet.

Heard that.  I've had such fun tracking its run.  Doesn't it have some ridiculous multiplier at this point?

[goldenstate5]

Lol Alice 2. I wonder if it'll even get close to Tomorrowland's DOM total?

 

Bet Disney is furious that the Depp story didn't break until after the weekend.

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, HurriKaty said:

Could you give me a run down? I had just woke up and was totally brain estimating.  I forgot it had that ridiculous opening weekend.

Or at least link me to one.  Hah.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=starwars7.htm

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:

Lol Alice 2. I wonder if it'll even get close to Tomorrowland's DOM total?

 

Bet Disney is furious that the Depp story didn't break until after the weekend.

Doubt it made a difference.

[goldenstate5]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Doubt it made a difference.

 

Looking at how the film keeps dropping from modest expectations, probably did. Or not seeing as there's no way to actually ponder into an alternate universe where the story didn't happen so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[RamblinRed]

Pretty weak weekend overall. 2nd yr in a row MDW has been largely a dud.

 

Specifically on CA:CW. I thought it would open lower than AOU but end up at or just over it with better WOM and critic reviews. I was wrong and that is no big deal imo. I don't think Piracy is a big deal - it might have cost it a couple million - but not $50MM sorry. I don't think travel is a big deal - people travel every MDW, just because driving is higher this year does not automatically mean people see fewer movies. Once again, maybe a million or two here or there, but that isn't the main issue.

 

There is a difference because causation and correlation. 

 

People will see movies if they are really interested in seeing a movie - see, TJB or DP or Zoo. If not they won't.

 

I am starting to wonder if CB fatigue is starting to set in a little. I'm not saying that CB adaptations won't make tons of money. But it may be getting harder to keep hitting 400MM+ numbers unless you really bring something new to the table from a GA perspective. The market has been pretty saturated with them for over a decade now and just like all genres they will end up going through cycles. 

[superweirdo87]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I don't even need to see what FOX will estimate for the 4 day weekend: 80M. Only to drop 2-3M when actuals come.

 

You see 77-78 over 4-day?

[Hatebox]

There isn't CBM fatigue, just Marvel's 'The gang's all here!' fatigue. If they're going to have the Avengers all back onscreen together they need to create some genuine conflict next time, internal or external. Civil War was superficial in that regard, and I think it hurt WOM and rewatchablility. 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2016 by Hatebox

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, mahnamahna said:

If Hollywood released more decent movies with GA appeal, the BO would be better than it is now.

 

 

People always make these pronouncements but never explain what they mean.

Someone please define what "decent movie with GA appeal mean"? Anyone has the formula down?

And even if there were a formula...what guarantees that a  "decent movie with GA appeal mean" will have good box office?

Edited May 30, 2016 by Cochofles

[superweirdo87]

11 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

That's EXACTLY what I predicted.. Thank God I got something right for a change...

 

 

 

I thought you predicted 60M for 3-day and 75 for the 4-day. That's quite close, and it could come in at 75M.

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

I'm not saying the subpar quality has nothing to do with it, but we're talking opening weekends here. Batman v Superman had a pretty big opening with even worse reviews/reception, so I don't think quality is a huge factor when discussing why X-men and Alice disappointed/failed this weekend. 

X-Men didn't look like it was bringing anything new to the series, and Alice was an unnecessary sequel at least three years too late where all of its pluses at the time (3D, Depp) are now negatives. Pretty easy to pinpoint what went wrong.

[CJohn]

35 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

You see 77-78 over 4-day?

Yes.

[a2k]

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST Fox 3,996

$35,511,974 -- / $8,887 $35,511,974 / 1

$29,283,650 -17.5% / $7,328 $64,795,624 / 2

$26,028,036 -11.1% / $6,514

X-MEN: APOCALYPSE              Fox 4,150

$26,400,000 -- / $6,361 $26,400,000 / 1

$20,250,000 -23.3% / $4,880 $46,650,000 / 2

$18,350,000 -9.4% / $4,422 $65,000,000 / 3

 

I don't see how APOCALYPSE can do 80m 4-day.

 

It needs an 18% Monday drop (for 15m) to touch 80m. DOFP fell 24% on Monday and X3 fell 22%.

It can't hold that much better than DOFP & X3 on Monday.

 

A 25% drop will give it 13.75m Monday and 78.75m 4-day.

This is assuming it's 3-day remains at 65m and does not go down with actuals.

79m 4-day and 1.9x off the 4-day gives 150.1m dom (DOFP dom was 2.1x * 4-day)