Weekend #s June 3-5: TMNT2 35.25m, X:A 22.3m, MBY 18.27m, Alice 10.69m, Birds 9.775m

[Johnny Tran]

I'm not sure it's "sequelitis" as much as people are being more selective. They will go see Marvel sequels or F&F sequels etc.  With all of the streaming options out there maybe we are getting closer to only having a few big event movies and then little nothing budget stuff.

[Fancyarcher]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I never saw The Conjuring but I still chuckle thinking back to seeing the trailers for it and Insidious 3 before some movie. What versatility, Patrick Wilson!

 

Patrick Wilson wasn't in Insidious 3, however he probably owes his soul to James Wan right now. He's starring in box office hits, and is able to keep being considered relevant enough.

Edited June 3, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[TLK]

Will they greenlight a sequel if it makes $600 million WW with only $70 million coming from North America ? I think that will be just too risky.

[Rentaro1989]

1 minute ago, TLK said:

Will they greenlight a sequel if it makes $600 million WW with only $70 million coming from North America ? I think that will be just too risky.

If they make 600 millions, they will  go for 2x trilogies

[Outrageous!]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

GOTG at best might slightly surpass the first but I think it will have a small decrease. Doesn't have the empty marketplace the first one had

 

I feel TMNT in August 2014 was a beneficiary of that too, because GotG in its second weekend was its big competition on opening weekend.  The interesting thing is that unless a huge drop occurs for GotG Vol. 2, for the two movies released one week from each other in August 2014, one sequel is considered a box office disappointment, while the other is unknown right now, but I feel it is likely to do much better than the TMNT sequel this weekend.  Does that mean the time gap matters for sequels, because Out of the Shadows was released less than 2 years after the 2014 movie, while for GotG, it will be over 2.5 years?

 

Also, looking at the adjusted-for-inflation 2016 Box Office Mojo chart, the 2007 animated movie TMNT, back in the 4Kids ownership era, appears to be the best comparison for Out of the Shadows.  TMNT's adjusted OW would be $30.2 million today, so the drops for the next few weeks may closely follow that film.

Edited June 3, 2016 by Outrageous!

[Captain Craig]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

TMNT isn't getting a third instalment. Calling it now.

 

At least with 2016 performances these needless franchises are finally ending.

I'd wait till more WW#s come in. Heck more domestic OW#s

Does it look good now, no but the knives sometimes come out too early around here. 

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Patrick Wilson wasn't in Insidious 3, however he probably owes his soul to James Wan right now. He's starring in box office hits, and is able to keep being considered relevant enough.

It was the second one then because The Conjuring opened two months before the Insidious sequel did.

[superweirdo87]

12 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm not sure it's "sequelitis" as much as people are being more selective. They will go see Marvel sequels or F&F sequels etc.  With all of the streaming options out there maybe we are getting closer to only having a few big event movies and then little nothing budget stuff.

 

But THG and Marvel are so huge, and Mockingjay 2 fell and CA:CW is coming in lower than Age of Ultron.

[WrathOfHan]

 

That F8 drop is going to be pretty minimal methinks. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

10 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Smart fans should have accepted by now that Warcraft will flop in the USA and moved on to keeping an eye on the Asian and European gross, really. Just take the hit like a champ, you know. Fans being fans though...

 

Still, Warcraft should make for a fascinating movie to follow regarding its gross. How much does China and OS in general truly matter? How much from there is enough to guarantee a sequel to a blockbuster? We may be about to find out.

 

 

Producers only get 20-25% from China's grosses.  Domestic grosses are still important, because that's the place where producers get a higher piece of money ( usually 50-60% ). Usually, producers only keep about 1/3 from overseas grosses.

 

So, Warcraft budget is 160 million + money spent on marketing/promotion/advertising.

 

 

There are domestic predictions showing Warcraft might have a final domestic gross of less than 50 million. 

 

 

So, let's imagine that Warcraft makes 50 million domestic, 300 million in China and 200 million ( from other countries ). 

 

50% of 50 million would be 25 million. The rest goes o theaters and distributors.

 

25% of 300 million ( China ) would be 75 million.

 

1/3 of 200 million ( around the world minus China ) would be more or less 66 million, give or take it.

 

 

So, producers will get 25 + 75 + 66 = 166 million.  That would mean disaster and no sequels, given the huge budget.

 

Why do producers keep making such expensive movies, it's beyond me. As bad as Resident Evil movies were, they were always cheap ( the last one will have a budget of 90 million ) and they kept making a nice profit, which is why we'll see a 6th movie.

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

But THG and Marvel are so huge, and Mockingjay 2 fell and CA:CW is coming in lower than Age of Ultron.

 

CA: CW will come in 60% bigger than TWS. domestic  and WW.

 

And no everyone did not see it as another Avengers movie, otherwise there wouldn't have been so many participants in the CW under $325m topic (those under and most of the rest still under $400m) back in Feb & March before tracking blew up.

 

 

 

 

[John Marston]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

CA: CW will come in 60% bigger than TWS. domestic  and WW.

 

And no everyone did not see it as another Avengers movie, otherwise there wouldn't have been so many participants in the CW under $325m topic (those under and most of the rest still under $400m) back in Feb & March before tracking blew up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lol. It was budgeted and marketed as an Avengers film

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

CA: CW will come in 60% bigger than TWS. domestic  and WW.

 

And no everyone did not see it as another Avengers movie, otherwise there wouldn't have been so many participants in the CW under $325m topic (those under and most of the rest still under $400m) back in Feb & March before tracking blew up.

 

 

 

 

Here we go again with this bullshit ahahahahah. 

 

Without Iron Man the movie wouldn't even sniff the numbers it ended up making.

[GiantCALBears]

Yo @CJohn remember we were having the discussion about this year really struggling in January? I misread some of the early surprises in Deadpool, Zootopia & Jungle Book but it does seem like there is a lot more meh ahead.

[CJohn]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

Yo @CJohn remember we were having the discussion about this year really struggling in January? I misread some of the early surprises in Deadpool, Zootopia & Jungle Book but it does seem like there is a lot more meh ahead.

The crowds spent all their money on the Winter/Spring  

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Lol. It was budgeted and marketed as an Avengers film

 

It was marketed more as Cap v Tony and friends and budgeted like that as well.  It didn't cost nearly as much as AOU.

 

Also, still there's that $325m club where you had it at $340-50m

 

Quote

 

a2knet said:

 

I decided to start this club after writing the following post

 

Quote

 

On 2/17/2016 at 2:26 AM, a2knet said:

Do you guys think that Civil War releasing after two 350m+ CBMs will affect it's gross? Even if BvS and DP stop at 350m then 700m will have been spent domestic just on CBMs before Civil War releases. Outside the fan-base, wouldn't at least a few in the GA hold back from spending dough on another CBM again.

 

April-end / early May used to be the big-CBM kick-off season. This year we have one in Feb and March each.

 

One can say that Sniper and FF7's 700m+ combo did not prevent AoU from having a mega 190m+ OW. However Sniper and FF7 were in a different genre. While Deadpool and BvS 700m+ combo is the same genre as CW and will compete for a similar audience.

 

 

Quote

 

The Civil War trailer left me unimpressed.

Just like like CA2, Thor 2 and IM3 benefited from the 'Avengers bump', there will be some consequences of releasing on the heels of AoU -  which had weakish legs with a multiplier of 2.4x.

 

145m ow and a 2.45x gives 355m, would be my initial guess at CW's box office.

If it were not for DP and BvS, I would have had CW at 340m minimum.

But DP and BvS combined will take ~750m worth of CBM tickets before CW opens.

 

130m ow, 2.45x gives 318x. 132.5m ow, 2.45x gives 324.625m.

I will go with 322m.

 

IN / CBM Wars : Ticket vs Money

Chaz (below TWS)

Baumer (265m)

fracfar (295m)

department store basement (290m)

Mockingjay Raphael (under 300m)

Water Bottle (under 300m)

Ruthie (could be under 300m)

filmnerdjamie (310m)

Jessie (around IM2 / 110-120m ow)

a2knet (322m)

CaptainJackSparrow

cannastop

Telemachos

 

OUT / CBM Tickets Grow on Trees

Empire (504m)

BKB (475-500m / 225m ow)

iJackSparrow (468m)

druv10 (175m / 450m)

Deathlife (closer to AoU numbers)

Black Hawk  (AoU numbers)

Infernus (425m)

Belakor (420m ; 340-520m)

Blankments (414m)

Folking (IM3 numbers at least)

grey ghost (IM3 numbers)

Daxtreme (IM3 numbers)

Warmaster506 (over 400m)

theStun (400m)

Noctis (380-400m)

Juby (350-430m)

JonathanLB (385m)

Jay Salahi (385mish)

AdamKendall (375-400m)

WrathOfHan (380m)

TheMovieman (380m)

peludo (380m / 140-150m ow)

cheesypoofs (at least 375m)

eXtacy (closer to 375m)

mahnamahna (out 375m)

babz06 (370m)

acab (360-370m)

JJ-8 (350-375m)

The Stingray (351m atm)

Walt Disney (350m is the floor)

DlAMONDZ (over 350m)

MrFanaticGuy34 (could go over 350m)

jb007 (350m or more)

keysersoze123 (350m)

Hangman (350m)

narniadis (345-350m)

John Marston (340-350m)

RichWS (335-350m)

5upe5 (335m)

Hatebox (325m+)

Talkie

FilmBuff

John Harris

Gamb1993

acetabulum7

Daniel Dylan Davis

MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie

The Panda

movieboner

SpiderByte

Ent

Stringer Bell Theory

kowhite

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 3, 2016 by TalismanRing

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It was marketed more as Cap v Tony and friends and budgeted like that as well.  It didn't cost nearly as much as AOU.

 

Also, still there's that that $325m club.

 

 

 

Breh, Ultron cost 250M. Civil War also cost 250M lol. They had the exact same budget. 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It was marketed more as Cap v Tony and friends and budgeted like that as well.  It didn't cost nearly as much as AOU.

 

Also, still there's that $325m club where you had it at $340-50m

 

 

 

 

Recent predictions after the second trailer and tv spots went higher 

There red were ads close to release showing off all the heroes like the Avengers ads.

 

 

iron Man/Downey is the biggest draw in the Marvel Universe

 

 

Many Early tweets claimed this is "the Avengers 2 that people wanted"

 

If it was just a movie with Cap, Bucky, Widow and some Cap villain, it might have increased over WS, but it wouldn't have sniffed 400m

 

[filmlover]

The movies released in the spring generally looked more appealing than this crop.

[Fancyarcher]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was the second one then because The Conjuring opened two months before the Insidious sequel did.

 

That's gotta be it.