Weekend Estimates (Page 50): The Conjuring 40.3M | Warcraft 24M | NYSM 23M| TMNT 14.8M | X-Men 10M | Me Before You 9.2M

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Yeah if it needs $500M to breakeven then it'll barely do so. Move along folks, no franchise here.

Another Genisys. Universal will see a small profit, take it and move along.

[Heat Vision]

6 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Few weeks ago they kept talking about 400M, then 450M a few days ago and now 500M. At this pace next week it will be 600M.

Internet math. BvS less than Man of Steel, then it cost more, then it cost 300 million.

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

Did we ever get a joke prediction from @CoolioD1 about how NYSM 2 will end? I want to know if he's as accurate as last time.

i believe i said like a year ago daniel radcliffe could do real magic or something and it sounds like i'm off this time. sometimes the visions are unclear and maybe i was predicting Swiss Army Man instead. 

Edited June 10, 2016 by CoolioD1

[Jonwo]

Even if it does break $500m, I could see Universal being reluctant to greenlight a sequel but I'm sure Legendary could get another studio like Lionsgate or Sony to distribute and they cough up the budget.

[nexoskirya]

How is  it even possible that warcraft needs to make 500mil to break even ???WTF ??

[CaptainJackSparrow]

If Pacific Rim could get a sequel which had a bigger budget, why couldn't this? Are they worried about bad reception to this from the general audience?

[johnboy3434]

7 minutes ago, nexoskirya said:

How is  it even possible that warcraft needs to make 500mil to break even ???WTF ??

 

A production budget of $160M. Half that again for P&A. Studio will get about 55% of the domestic gross, and about a third of the foreign gross. While the exact ratios are yet to be seen, on average you're probably looking at ~2.4x the total budget in order to break even. That falls around $550M to $600M in this case.

 

Of course, there's always home video and VOD to make up the difference if it's small enough (or if the video sales are large enough). Studio gets about 80% of the former, and numbers for the latter aren't made publicly available.

 

Edited June 10, 2016 by johnboy3434

[Belakor]

3 minutes ago, nexoskirya said:

How is  it even possible that warcraft needs to make 500mil to break even ???WTF ??

They don´know that the budget is 160m and not 250m.

[cannastop]

47 minutes ago, snitch said:

I have some very harsh words for the american audience.

 

 

Honestly, i'm starting to think that it's not the movies fault it's just that american audience want only Disney, Comic books ans Star Wars movies. 

What, are you going to look at Europe admiringly? Need I remind you which countries love the shit out of Minions?

[Belakor]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What, are you going to look at Europe admiringly? Need I remind you which countries love the shit out of Minions?

Basically white people on earth 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

If Pacific Rim could get a sequel which had a bigger budget, why couldn't this? Are they worried about bad reception to this from the general audience?

Pacific Rim passed the magical $100M domestic mark and had good reviews. This is going to make $75M at most and has poor reviews. Big difference.

[trifle]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Even if it does break $500m, I could see Universal being reluctant to greenlight a sequel but I'm sure Legendary could get another studio like Lionsgate or Sony to distribute and they cough up the budget.

 

 

I can't imagine Legendary will let this die.  It won't be Lionsgate though, their model is to sell foreign distribution rights to finance the picture, and domestic won't be enough to tempt them.  Sony might though.  Rothman has been saying he wants to beef Sony up internationally, and just hired Fox's International guy.

[VinceMichaudC]

17 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Even if it does break $500m, I could see Universal being reluctant to greenlight a sequel but I'm sure Legendary could get another studio like Lionsgate or Sony to distribute and they cough up the budget.

 

Legendary owns the IP outright - Universal is acting as financier & distributor.

 

If Universal declines (which I don't see them doing), I could see Lionsgate distribute the title in the US for a fee and Legendary finance the next film by itself due to Wanda's ownership of the studio and sell overseas rights much like Lionsgate does for its film - I mean, the important gross comes from China. The rest is gravy.

[Plain Old Tele]

23 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

A production budget of $160M. Half that again for P&A. Studio will get about 55% of the domestic gross, and about a third of the foreign gross. While the exact ratios are yet to be seen, on average you're probably looking at ~2.4x the total budget in order to break even. That falls around $550M to $600M in this case.

 

Of course, there's always home video and VOD to make up the difference if it's small enough (or if the video sales are large enough). Studio gets about 80% of the former, and numbers for the latter aren't made publicly available.

 

Probably more like 130m for worldwide P&A, but then again the distributor probably makes more than 34% of overseas grosses anyway. But yes, I basically agree with you. Most of these mid-range tentpoles only become profitable through ancillary revenue streams. 

 

It's worth it, though, because they really add value to a studio's library in the long run. 

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, VinceMichaudC said:

 

Legendary owns the IP outright - Universal is acting as financier & distributor.

 

If Universal declines (which I don't see them doing), I could see Lionsgate distribute the title in the US for a fee and Legendary finance the next film by itself due to Wanda's ownership of the studio and sell overseas rights much like Lionsgate does for its film - I mean, the important gross comes from China. The rest is gravy.

 

Universal are only financing 25% of the budget and getting a distribution fee but they are paying for P&A. Universal are in a good position where they don't need Legendary and most of the things they have released through them have flopped badly (I'm not including Jurassic World because that was already in development and production when Legendary came onboard likewise with Straight Outta Compton), they'll drop them as soon as the deal ends in 2019

[superweirdo87]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

Probably more like 130m for worldwide P&A, but then again the distributor probably makes more than 34% of overseas grosses anyway. But yes, I basically agree with you. Most of these mid-range tentpoles only become profitable through ancillary revenue streams. 

 

Some of the high end ones too. BvS needed 925M to break even in theaters. It makes a profit through ancillary revenues and merchandising.

[superweirdo87]

One big question here on the Deadline claims about the break-even point. Is that the break even point for theatrical revenues or revenues across all streams?

Edited June 10, 2016 by superweirdo87

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

Some of the high end ones too. BvS needed 925M to break even in theaters. It makes a profit through ancillary revenues and merchandising.

 

BvS is lucky that Warner Bros owns all the IP related to the characters, something like TASM2 where Sony only had box office revenue as Marvel had merchandise revenues likewise with X-Men although Marvel haven't put out any X-Men related merchandise in years although Fox have used the characters in commercials like Carl Jr and Sky

[superweirdo87]

Suicide Squad should be a strong win for WB, and sell a gazillion Harley Quinn figures.

[VinceMichaudC]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

Universal are only financing 25% of the budget and getting a distribution fee but they are paying for P&A. Universal are in a good position where they don't need Legendary and most of the things they have released through them have flopped badly (I'm not including Jurassic World because that was already in development and production when Legendary came onboard likewise with Straight Outta Compton), they'll drop them as soon as the deal ends in 2019

 

I'm not sure how that negates anything I've said. Still, the eventual partnership ending between both parties (Universal & Legendary) I view as mutual as both parties are on to greener pastures and have planned where they want to be.

 

Universal in 2019 will have Dreamworks titles coming from them and with the combination of Jurassic Park, Furious, Borne, Minions IP among others, they don't need to pad out their schedule.

 

Legendary in 2019, same thing applies to them - Kong & Godzilla partnership with WB, a bigger focus in China due to Wanda's involvement and also increasing their output in the TV space.

 

There is no incentive to work together anymore.