Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[mahnamahna]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, this year really needs to start balancing itself out more.

July and August should be a little more balanced - two big hits (Pets and SS), a few solid hits (Bourne 5, Star Trek 3, Ghostbusters) and I'd say 5 in the $75-125 million range (Ice Age 5, BFG, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon, Sausage Party). 

 

 Not to mention Central Intelligence and Conjuring 2 should be mid-level successes, and ID42 should do well OS. 

 

September/October should balance things out a bit since there's no Martian or Gravity  this year.

[filmlover]

Given the competition coming up (Independence Day is looking more doomed with each day and the 4th of July openers feel like nonevents), it's difficult imagining Dory not having good legs.

[Dementeleus]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dory won't get a 4x with such a high opening, but even a 3.4x at 150 would put it flying past a gargantuan 500+ total. 

 

I don't think 120m is even guaranteed at this point, let alone higher. Let's wait for some actual Friday numbers first.

[RandomCat]

With ID2 looking to fall flat on it's face, it looks like Disney is going to take the top 5 WW.

[grey ghost]

12 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

So the only big Disney movie to miss the B$ mark could be the Hunger Games Spin Off set in the SWCU.

 

Disney could have up to 6 B movies this year.

 

 

 

 

Zootopia

Jungle Book

Civil War

Finding Dory

Rogue One

 

And Moana?

[mahnamahna]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Anything under Frozen DOM was an underperformance for Dory? 

Considering Zootopia and Jungle Book both did $325 million+ DOM, it would be disappointing if Dory only did $350-370 million DOM.

 

Still a success, but barely above the original unadjusted would have been close to the lower end of expectations. 

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Given the competition coming up (Independence Day is looking more doomed with each day and the 4th of July openers feel like nonevents), it's difficult imagining Dory not having good legs.

 

But 3x+ off a 100m+ opener is good legs.

[Mango]

Thinking Wall-E legs for Dory. Makes sense, it's looking to have a really big opening so it must be a bit frontloaded.

 

I don't know if that's Wall-E legs with a TS3/Minions sized opening or a monster $150M opening. I guess we'll wait to see. We've never had an animated movie open in previews quite like this so either it's really frontloaded or we're store for a crazy weekend.

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Goldblank said:

As a huge animation nerd, this is exciting. As someone who Pixar's early work caused the foundation for my love of movies in general, I'm just really really overjoyed. Even if it somehow missed the record (which I don't think will happen.)

 

I remember seeing Finding Nemo when I was 7 years old on Saturday afternoon in a sold out theater. I saw it three times that summer including my first trip to the drive in. It was probably one of the first movies I completely loved.

 

Honestly, I'm kinda upset I can't contribute to the box office until Monday. It's critical and commercial success will have to be enough for me. At least this is exciting on its own!

 

Similar experience, although I've liked watching movies way before, it was ratatouille that made me love animated movies, and started to pay lots more attention to the movie industry in general. Even though Pixar is becoming fairly inconsistent lately, the emotional attachment I have with Pixar can't be replaced with any other animation studio.

[Captain Craig]

29 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Well recieved Pixar sequels usually get 4x legs.

 

So if Dory hits 125 m OW, then CW's summer crown is in danger.

Either way the real winner is Disney shareholders.

[POTUS 2020]

Just now, Telemachos said:

 

I don't think 120m is even guaranteed at this point, let alone higher. Let's wait for some actual Friday numbers first.

why is noble Lawrence all conservative all of a sudden

crazy Lawrence says 130 guaranteed. probably 140m

[DAJK]

Was talking to my boss and he was telling me that another GM in the company walked out of Dory and when my boss asked why he just said

 

"I couldn't take it, it hit too close to home. Dory reminds me of my staff because they keep forgetting everything I tell them!"

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, No Prisoners said:

why is noble Lawrence all conservative all of a sudden

crazy Lawrence says 130 guaranteed. probably 140m

 

All of a sudden? Aside from a couple of absurd outliers once in awhile, I tend to be one of the most conservative predictors around.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I don't think 120m is even guaranteed at this point, let alone higher. Let's wait for some actual Friday numbers first.

Why though? Minions just missed that mark and Dory obliterated its late nights. I think it beat it by way too much to not be pulling at least a solid 15m higher than it for OW.

[Ethan Hunt]

The more I think about it the more I think I love Dory. Its mindboggling to think that there is not only a sequel to Finding Nemo but one I can look upon and call a worthy sequel

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

But 3x+ off a 100m+ opener is good legs.

I didn't say it wasn't. What I said was that the legs should be comparatively strong given that its competition looks to make minimal impact (as well as compared to everything else this summer so far).

[NCsoft]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given the competition coming up (Independence Day is looking more doomed with each day and the 4th of July openers feel like nonevents), it's difficult imagining Dory not having good legs.

 

Maybe Pets and Ice Age 5 will affect its later legs, it's also possible that those two cannibalizes each other.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Was talking to my boss and he was telling me that another GM in the company walked out of Dory and when my boss asked why he just said

 

"I couldn't take it, it hit too close to home. Dory reminds me of my staff because they keep forgetting everything I tell them!"

 

Fucking burn

[AniNate]

I think Dory's going to be in line with Wall-E's legs. Could see some people being put off by its tonal shift from the original but those it connects with will be strongly recommending it.

Edited June 17, 2016 by tribefan695

[FlashMaster659]

Some spillover just occurred at my local AMC. The 10:30 AM 2D show for Dory sold out and a bunch of people ended up having to see the 11:00 AM 3D show.