Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, James said:

Of course it will. It has SW type hype and it's marketing has been spot on. It will be the highest CBM this year DOM.

 

It has hype, but not even close to SW7 level hype.  If it had that level hype, tickets would be on sale by now and it'd be at the top of the charts.

[The Panda]

21 minutes ago, James said:

I was referring to social media hype that runs on similar levels with TFA and way ahead of Rogue One. I am talking about very real numbers that you can look up. Deadpool was the same, hugely hyped on social media, but way below what SS is doing. Of course that will not translate in SW numbers, because older people watch SW and are not on social media. But for younger audiences, that made Deadpool a success, SS is a phenomenon.

 

 

TFiOS had unprecedented social media hype and it couldn't even open to 50m.  Internet hype =\= real hype.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, The Pandaren said:

 

 

TFiOS had unprecedented social media hype and it couldn't even open to 50m.  Internet hype =\= real hype.

I agree with you on movies like that, however on the big blockbusters and CBM type films I'd say there is a definite correlation between internet hype and real life hype a lot of the time. 

[FlashMaster659]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but lol at Cinemascore's projected range for Dory.

 

CinemaScore projects that the Andrew Stanton-Angus MacLane movie can clear anywhere between $446M-$629M at the domestic box office alone.

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The big difference is everyone expected those movies to do huge numbers because they're established and traditionally huge franchises. SS is Deadpool all over again in the way it's a different kind of CBM that will blow the analysts straight out of the water. 

 

You're speculating. There's no fact here. And won't people be put off a bit because of BvS?

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

 

 

TFiOS couldn't even open to 50m.  

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Baumer said:

 

You're speculating. There's no fact here. And won't people be put off a bit because of BvS?

Why? The marketing looks nothing like BvS and the DCU is such a non-entity right now this barely comes off as having anything to do with it. GotG again comes to mind as I highly doubt the GA were drawn in by the very loose connection to the rest of MCU. 

[Deep Wang]

If Suicide Squad was released in the spring, I could totally see it doing a Deadpool. The trailer was hot and people were hyped all over the place. 

 

But, it seems to have cooled off a bit in the meantime.  Of course there's definitely time to heat back up, and it very well could, but I can't see that right now. 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Rallax said:

If Suicide Squad was released in the spring, I could totally see it doing a Deadpool. The trailer was hot and people were hyped all over the place. 

 

But, it seems to have cooled off a bit in the meantime.  Of course there's definitely time to heat back up, and it very well could, but I can't see that right now. 

I agree with you, the marketing has already peaked. 

[MovieMan89]

I think WB is being insanely smart with the SS marketing. They created a flurry of hype for it way in advance, but have let it die down right during the CBM onslaught and fatigue that ended with Apocalypse.  Now they can amp up again in July after giving the GA a little room to breathe from all things CBM. 

[The Panda]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I agree with you on movies like that, however on the big blockbusters and CBM type films I'd say there is a definite correlation between internet hype and real life hype a lot of the time. 

 

Kind of, but I still don't see Suicide Squad doing BvS or Civil War high numbers.  I think it's definitely got a lot of buzz, but 150m seems like a stretch.

 

[grey ghost]

Suicide Squad is too dark to be four quadrant like CW but won't have the R rated edginess of Deadpool.

 

It's a castrated PG-13 movie.

 

The Joker will push it above 200 m but it won't be another 350 m phenomenon.

 

Deadpools don't grow on trees. That was lightning in a bottle. 

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Suicide Squad is too dark to be four quadrant like CW but won't have the R rated edginess of Deadpool.

 

It's a castrated PG-13 movie.

 

The Joker will push it above 200 m but it won't be another 350 m phenomenon.

 

Deadpools don't grow on trees. That was lightning in a bottle. 

Besides January, we had a 300M movie in every month. That is the only reason I can see to believe SS will reach a similar number, and this is assuming Pets gets there as well in July. 

 

My official prediction for SS right now is, as I said in this thread before, 75/205, tho. 

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Besides January, we had a 300M movie in every month. That is the only reason I can see to believe SS will reach a similar number, and this is assuming Pets gets there as well in July. 

 

My official prediction for SS right now is, as I said in this thread before, 75/205, tho. 

 

Ben Hur will be the 300m grosser

[CJohn]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Ben Hur will be the 300m grosser

Don't be ridiculous. It will be Mechanic 2  

[cookie]

19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Besides January, we had a 300M movie in every month. That is the only reason I can see to believe SS will reach a similar number, and this is assuming Pets gets there as well in July. 

 

August has only had one $300m grosser in its past history though, and it wouldn't have gotten there if it weren't for some very good legs.

 

I myself ain't predicting Suicide Squad opening over $100m (see around 80-90) so it would need Guardians-style WOM to reach that mark.

Edited June 19, 2016 by cookie

[wildphantom]

$300 million for SS can't be ruled out IF the movie is really good. Guardians was the latest in a succession of films the audience trust.  SS is following BvS. 

Who knows what will happen, but the movie will have to be damn good if it's going past $300 million. This hasn't got automatic ticket buyers for that level like a MCU film would. 

[Chaz]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

SS will do 250 max.

And that will be perfectly fine.

 

More than Batman Begins, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, The Incredible Hulk, Thor: The Dark World, Batman Forever, Batman Returns, Superman II, The Amazing Spider-Man 1 and 2, Green Lantern. 

 

It could even challenge The Winter Soldier.

[CJohn]

Just now, Chaz said:

And that will be perfectly fine.

 

More than Batman Begins, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, The Incredible Hulk, Thor: The Dark World, Batman Forever, Batman Returns, Superman II, The Amazing Spider-Man 1 and 2, Green Lantern. 

 

It could even challenge The Winter Soldier.

TASM1 did 260M+  

[Chaz]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

TASM1 did 260M+  

oop