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baumer

Wednesday'number from RTH for Dory 18M

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9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

If Wonder Woman does over $350M+, that's certainly a welcome surprise and definitely a break out. 

In the midst of relatively uninspiring releases such as Pirates 5, Cars 3, Despicable me 3, and Transformers 5, it would be exciting to see such surprises next summer!

 

 

Wonder Woman, Spider-Man and Dunkirk could potentially surprise. 

 

Not all $300 million+ DOM :lol: (only Spidey and Wonder Woman have a shot at that IMO). But Dunkirk could be a breath of fresh air after another summer of sequels nobody asked for like Cars 3 or WWZ2 (GotG2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Kingsman 2, Apes 3 and Wonder Woman being the primary exceptions to this rule). 

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Even if Guardians and Beauty and the Beast do $350M+, I think that's enough to finish in the Top 3 DOM. Even if Episode VIII doesn't reach $750M+, it will easily win DOM 2017.

 

For the top 15 DOM, I'd say: 

  1. Star Wars Episode VIII: $725 million 
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $430 million 
  3. Beauty and the Beast: $380 million 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $355 million 
  5. Justice League: $310 million 
  6. Despicable Me 3: $295 million 
  7. Fast 8: $285 million 
  8. The LEGO Batman Movie: $270 million 
  9. Coco: $250 million 
  10. Thor - Ragnorak: $235 million 
  11. Wonder Woman: $225 million 
  12. War of the Planet of the Apes: $215 million 
  13. Dunkirk: $205 million 
  14. Transformers - The Last Knight: $185 million 
  15. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $175 million 

I see Spider-Man being a light-hearted crowd-pleaser ala GotG. LEGO Batman should benefit from minimal competition until March 17th and its status as the first big tentpole of 2017. Coco got a solid boost from Grinch leaving 2017 - could do $300 million+ DOM if it gets critical acclaim. Dunkirk could go anywhere IMO - could do $90 million, could do close to $290 million. 

 

Transformers, POTC, F&F and DM should all decline from their predecessors. Apes 3, GotG2 and Thor 3 all have the potential to increase from their predecessor. 

 

2017 should also be more well-rounded since I don't see Jan-Apr 2017 having 4 $300 million+ DOM grossers. That leaves room for some mid-range successes (50 Shades 2, Dark Tower, Wolverine 3, Kong, Smurfs) 

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6 hours ago, Baumer said:

Oh you can fuck a fish. Just stop paying to see a stupid cartoon.

 

 

Don't pay to see one of the best reviewed movies of the year! More people should definitely follow this train of thought. 

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27 minutes ago, Captain Craig said:

If I counted right there are 14 sequels this summer between May 1 thru Labor Day. Sixteen if you add in reboots Ghostbusters and Tarzan(surely meant to spawn sequels)

2017 would have only 11, even if you count S-M:H, Jumanji and Mummy films, being reboots/restarts, you still have less "sequel-itis" next year. That's something positive, right?? Right.

 

Yes, in terms of sequels it's probably not worse next year than this year.

I just personally have a grudge against Transformers, Despicable me and Pirates (other than the first one), and also no one ever asked for Cars 3.

So to see the sequels of these franchises release within a month of each other has a pretty devastating effect on me:P:P

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11 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Wonder Woman, Spider-Man and Dunkirk could potentially surprise. 

 

Not all $300 million+ DOM :lol: (only Spidey and Wonder Woman have a shot at that IMO). But Dunkirk could be a breath of fresh air after another summer of sequels nobody asked for like Cars 3 or WWZ2 (GotG2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Kingsman 2, Apes 3 and Wonder Woman being the primary exceptions to this rule). 

 

Transformers, POTC, F&F and DM should all decline from their predecessors. Apes 3, GotG2 and Thor 3 all have the potential to increase from their predecessor. 

 

2017 should also be more well-rounded since I don't see Jan-Apr 2017 having 4 $300 million+ DOM grossers. That leaves room for some mid-range successes (50 Shades 2, Dark Tower, Wolverine 3, Kong, Smurfs) 

 

Yep, pretty excited for Dunkirk.

In terms of Sequels, really excited for Apes 3, and thrilled to see Alien Covenant, wouldn't mind Guardians 2 or Kingsmen 2 either. 

The thing about next year though is that there's no suspense in terms of what tops DOM and WW box office, SW EP8 has no potential challengers..;) In fact we could have a year where apart of EP8 no other movie gets over 400M domestically, we'll see about that I guess.

Like you said we could have more mid-level successes next year, I hope so that'd be healthier for the industry.

 

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6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Yep, pretty excited for Dunkirk.

In terms of Sequels, really excited for Apes 3, and thrilled to see Alien Covenant, wouldn't mind Guardians 2 or Kingsmen 2 either. 

The thing about next year though is that there's no suspense in terms of what tops DOM and WW box office, SW EP8 has no potential challengers..;) In fact we could have a year where apart of EP8 no other movie gets over 400M domestically, we'll see about that I guess.

Like you said we could have more mid-level successes next year, I hope so that'd be healthier for the industry.

 

I am a die hard ,big time, World War 2 buff so Dunkirk is high on my list as well.

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Dory may very well become Pixar's biggest first run admission seller ever now. Incredible after 20+ years of massive hit after hit. 

 

Now why the hell didn't I leave my initial 500m prediction for it in the game alone? :(

Edited by MovieMan89
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41 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Yes, in terms of sequels it's probably not worse next year than this year.

I just personally have a grudge against Transformers, Despicable me and Pirates (other than the first one), and also no one ever asked for Cars 3.

So to see the sequels of these franchises release within a month of each other has a pretty devastating effect on me:P:P

Cars 3 is all about the merchandise. If it breaks even in the theaters.....Disney will be happy.

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8 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

@mahnamahna no way Despicable Me 3 makes less than 300m! Not after the 2nd and Minions (while not a direct sequel) were all big hits and generally well recieved.  

Not to mention next summer's animation slate is one of the weakest in recent years. Cars 3 is its only big competitor (lol, yup). Given that, an increase over DM2 isn't at all unlikely. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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15 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

@mahnamahna no way Despicable Me 3 makes less than 300m! Not after the 2nd and Minions (while not a direct sequel) were all big hits and generally well recieved.  

 

This.

 

Even if people didn't like Minions....they at least liked the first 2 DM-films.

 

And i don't see DM3 grossing the lowest, DOM-wise because it's a fouthquel. I mean.....how many blockbuster-fourthquels did we get that were NOT the lowest grosser in their respective franchises?:

 

Jurassic World

Spectre

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

 

 

That's those 5 movies i can think of.

 

DM3 is a direct sequel to DM2.....so it will put the focus, back on Gru.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

No its fucking impossible

The ceiling for Captain Underpants has to be like 150 and the ceiling for Cars 3 has to be 250 (200 might even be more accurate). That's it for animation for the summer. DM3 could easily hit 400 if it's well liked. We already know it will be well marketed, that's for sure. But then again Ethan, I'm fairly certain it was you arguing that 250 or something was like the absolute ceiling for Minions right up until the bitter end last year. 

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3 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

This.

 

Even if people didn't like Minions....they at least liked the first 2 DM-films.

 

And i don't see DM3 grossing the lowest, DOM-wise because it's a fouthquel. I mean.....how many blockbuster-fourthquels did we get that were NOT the lowest grosser in their respective franchises?:

 

Jurassic World

Spectre

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

 

 

That's those 5 movies i can think of.

 

DM3 is a direct sequel to DM2.....so it will put the focus, back on Gru.

More importantly, Minions isn't even disliked among kids, aka the demo all Illumination films thrive off of. Kids will beg their parents to go see DM3, even if the parents are dreading it. Which they might not even be, since the DM movies were definitely liked outside of kids. 

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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dory may very well become Pixar's biggest first run admission seller ever now. Incredible after 20+ years of massive hit after hit. 

 

Now why the hell didn't I leave my initial 500m prediction for it in the game alone? :(

 

Because of peer pressure.  When the forum admin keeps telling you to "be realistic"  you eventually cave. 

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