Weekend Actuals (Page 96): Dory 73M | IDR 41M | CI 18.2M | Shallows 16.8M | Conjuring 7.7M | Jones 7.6M

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Probably right around 75% because remember that the first was hugely inflated by 3d. 

Add in six years of inflation and it definitely did.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, department store basement said:

 

What is Greek Wedding 2's admissions drop-off?

Right at the 85% mark too. Forgot about that one already haha. 

[filmlover]

Just now, DAR said:

That's what I figured.   It's rotten reviews border on really hating that film.

 

 

Drive is looking more and more like a fluke from him with each new movie.

[DAR]

I didn't really like Drive so no fluke for me.

[James]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Illumination is going to have to start settling for 100M-low 200's if they keep alienating older audiences; given the budgets on their movies they should be fine with that.

I seriously think Pets will beat Zootopia DOM so...

[Krissykins]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's pretty much Scream 4 on a much higher scale. The drop-off between the first and the second in admissions will be even more hideous than originally thought.

 

This is Independence Day 2, not 4. 

 

If you want to do your comparison properly, Scream 2 dropped $1.6m from Scream. 

 

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, James said:

I seriously think Pets will beat Zootopia DOM so...

You're seriously insane

[department store basement]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Drive is looking more and more like a fluke from him with each new movie.

 

Did you like Bronson?

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, Nova said:

They're making up random illogical numbers, actually. 

 

Yup, hopefully RTH will show-up later and gives us some real numbers.

 

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

So their numbers are also worthless then?

 

Pretty much. The first box office numbers on sites like Deadline, and The Hollywood Reporter tend to be random, and based off apparent previous predictions and expectations. A lot of people on this site, myself included, don't tend to take them so seriously as a result.

[George Parr]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

biggest sequel drops here. Though in money not attendance. Wonder where Id4 will fit in

 

 

1. Exorcist II: The Heretic -- ($202 million)

2. The Empire Strikes Back -- ($170 million)

3. The Sting II -- ($150 million)

4. Evan Almighty -- ($142 million)

5. Happy Feet Too -- ($134 million)

6. Grease 2 -- ($128 million)

7. The Lost World: Jurassic Park -- ($128 million)

8. U.S. Marshals -- ($126 million)

9. xXx: State of the Union -- ($116 million)

10. Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 -- ($114 million)

11. Basic Instinct 2 -- ($111 million)

12. Son of the Mask -- ($102 million)

13. Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd -- ($101 million)

14. More American Graffiti -- ($100 million)

15. The Godfather: Part II ($84 million)

16. Analyze That -- ($74 million)

17. Speed 2: Cruise Control -- ($73 million)

18. Honey I Blew Up the Kids -- ($72 million)

19. Graffiti Bridge -- ($64 million)

20. The Ring 2 -- ($56 million)

 

That includes re-releases though, no?

 

Empire strikes Back is 170 million behind if you count the Special Edition, but not if you go by the original run.

 

If you compare Star Wars and ESB at the time of ESB's relese you get the following:

ANH 221.28 million original run, moving right into the first re-release in 1978 which added 43.8 million (total ~265 million), technically there was no break between the two, so it's hard to say what exactly is the original intake. This was followed up by a second re-release in 1979 which added 22.5 million, for a total of 287.5 million prior to the release of ESB.

 

ESB made 181.38 million, which is either ~40, ~84 or 106 million below ANH's intake, depending on which you use.

Both movies got re-releases in 1981 and 1982, adding 17.2 and ~18 million for ANH (304.5 / 322.7 million) and 26.8 and 14.5 million for ESB (208.2 / 222.7 million), putting ESB at around 100 million below ANH prior to the Special Editions.

 

I really don't think that including re-releases that happen 15-20 years later makes all that much sense when comparing the drop from original to sequel. Such a comparison doesn't really portray the situation at the time of the release of the sequel anymore.

[John Marston]

Just now, Krissykins said:

 

This is Independence Day 2, not 4. 

 

If you want to do your comparison properly, Scream 2 dropped $1.6m from Scream. 

 

 

 

Scream 2 came out 1 year after 1

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, James said:

I seriously think Pets will beat Zootopia DOM so...

 

[department store basement]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

 

That includes re-releases though, no?

 

Empire strikes Back is 170 million behind if you count the Special Edition, but not if you go by the original run.

 

If you compare Star Wars and ESB at the time of ESB's relese you get the following:

ANH 221.28 million original run, moving right into the first re-release in 1978 which added 43.8 million (total ~265 million), technically there was no break between the two, so it's hard to say what exactly is the original intake. This was followed up by a second re-release in 1979 which added 22.5 million, for a total of 287.5 million prior to the release of ESB.

 

ESB made 181.38 million, which is either ~40, ~84 or 106 million below ANH's intake, depending on which you use.

Both movies got re-releases in 1981 and 1982, adding 17.2 and ~18 million for ANH (304.5 / 322.7 million) and 26.8 and 14.5 million for ESB (208.2 / 222.7 million), putting ESB at around 100 million below ANH prior to the Special Editions.

 

I really don't think that including re-releases that happen 15-20 years later makes all that much sense when comparing the drop from original to sequel. Such a comparison doesn't really portray the situation at the time of the release of the sequel anymore.

 

Agreed completely.

 

Sting 2 held the record before Greek Wedding and then Alice broke it.

[filmlover]

Well, RIP Pets. James just cursed ya.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Add in six years of inflation and it definitely did.

Yeah, some rough estimates looking at it more in depth would be more like a 78-79% admissions drop. IDR will still top it though. Say it does 90m (i.e. more like 78m without 3d/premium), that would put it right in the 90% area of attendance drop off. 100m still puts it over 85%. 

Edited June 24, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Fancyarcher]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Drive is looking more and more like a fluke from him with each new movie.

 

Drive was his eighth film though. He made some acclaim enough films prior.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[Dementeleus]

I think IDR has a good chance at having the highest OW for a movie that doesn't reach 100m. It's gonna drop off a cliff.

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, James said:

I seriously think Pets will beat Zootopia DOM so...

I seriously think you're wrong on this one.

 

$275M is a good target for Pets. $300M would be outstanding, but I only see about a 20% chance of it getting there.

 

$340M is not happening. No way, no how. I thought it may have had a subtle chance if WOM was through the roof, but based on early reviews and reactions, that is very unlikely at this point.

 

$275M sounds about right.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Yup, hopefully RTH will show-up later and gives us some real numbers.

 

 

Pretty much. The first box office numbers on sites like Deadline, and The Hollywood Reporter tend to be random, and based off apparent previous predictions and expectations. A lot of people on this site, myself included, don't tend to take them so seriously as a result.

Exactly. Usually they're either underestimating or overestimating. In this case they're most definitely underestimating Finding Dory. I have a feeling they're underestimating The Shallows. And I think they're overestimating with Jones. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Free State of Tele said:

I think IDR has a good chance at having the highest OW for a movie that doesn't reach 100m. It's gonna drop off a cliff.

What would hold that record? Cause I'm still not convinced IDR will even hit 45 this weekend. I think the Sat hold will already by abysmal. 

 

EDIT: Looks like it's High School Musical 3 with 42m. So yeah, I'd say IDR has a good chance of taking that record. 

Edited June 24, 2016 by MovieMan89