DESPICABLE ME III | 770.2 M overseas ● 1034.8 M worldwide

[MinaTakla]

Actuals are in! And DM3 OS is up by 3.6 million!

Totals now are:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$230,292,465	28.0%
+ Foreign:	$592,404,491	72.0%
= Worldwide:	$822,696,956

 

Am now gonna post an in-depth analysis after running the numbers with a detailed comp earlier today. 

 

[MinaTakla]

Earlier today I ran the numbers more closely to evaluate where DM3 is heading. I calculated and cross-checked how much Minions had done OS in 2015 exchange rates versus how much DM3 has done in 2017 exchange rates in the exact same markets, same release points (number of weekends) and without ER adjustments. 

Very interestingly, the detailed analysis results align with what some users here (@Omni, @ZeeSoh and @grim22) have been saying early on regarding the film's 1B potential. We'll see in the coming weeks.

 

Overseas Results:

 

Minions: $612.135 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3: $592.4 million OS so far (3.3% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

CC: @peludo@FantasticBeasts@Stutterng baumer Denbrough

If anyone is interested in the full charts, let me know. 

[Fullbuster]

1 hour ago, MinaTakla said:

Earlier today I ran the numbers more closely to evaluate where DM3 is heading. I calculated and cross-checked how much Minions had done OS in 2015 exchange rates versus how much DM3 has done in 2017 exchange rates in the exact same markets, same release points (number of weekends) and without ER adjustments. 

Very interestingly, the detailed analysis results align with what some users here (@Omni, @ZeeSoh and @grim22) have been saying early on regarding the film's 1B potential. We'll see in the coming weeks.

 

Overseas Results:

 

Minions: $612.135 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3: $592.4 million OS so far (3.3% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

CC: @peludo@FantasticBeasts@Stutterng baumer Denbrough

If anyone is interested in the full charts, let me know. 

 

Do you have the Brazil gross in USD for the weekend? I don't find it.

[MinaTakla]

7 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Do you have the Brazil gross in USD for the weekend? I don't find it.

Not yet, but should have it in 1-2 days. 

[MinaTakla]

France Update:

DM3 is at 90% of Minions' viewers and 94% dollar total in France by their 4th Sunday.

Minions: 4.77m viewers (32.9 USD cume) in 1 month

DM3: 4.28m viewers (31 USD cume approx) in 1 month

[Omni]

I guess people will treat 1B as a lock only when this movie will stand at 980M from a 15M WW weekend.

 

Let's assume a 38M OS weekend.

About 5M of them are from Japan, where using the usual multiplier for animated releases DM3 should gross 40/45M more.

3M from China, probably 4M remaining giving the weakness of late legs in the market.

8M from South Korea, so 15M more from there (would be more like 10/12, but holidays and absolute lack of competition will help a lot)

22M from the rest, of which a good 25/30% comes from UK and Germany (where the film will countinue to be very leggy); so a multiplier above 3x is likely, giving it 70M or so.

Let's say 30M from remaining markets, a number pretty much all seem to agree on.

DOM it's been mirroring Minions for 2 weeks, so it's reasonable to expect the same 33/34M figure.

 

A little math:

DOM = 230.3+33.7 = 264M

OS = 592.4+42.6+4+15+70+30 = 592.4+161.6 = 754M

WW = 1.018 billions

 

If we give this projection a likely 90% accuracy, we get a 999M to 1.037B range.

Will still people think this will have trouble overtaking DM2?

[Asyulus]

59 minutes ago, Omni said:

I guess people will treat 1B as a lock only when this movie will stand at 980M from a 15M WW weekend.

 

Let's assume a 38M OS weekend.

About 5M of them are from Japan, where using the usual multiplier for animated releases DM3 should gross 40/45M more.

3M from China, probably 4M remaining giving the weakness of late legs in the market.

8M from South Korea, so 15M more from there (would be more like 10/12, but holidays and absolute lack of competition will help a lot)

22M from the rest, of which a good 25/30% comes from UK and Germany (where the film will countinue to be very leggy); so a multiplier above 3x is likely, giving it 70M or so.

Let's say 30M from remaining markets, a number pretty much all seem to agree on.

DOM it's been mirroring Minions for 2 weeks, so it's reasonable to expect the same 33/34M figure.

 

A little math:

DOM = 230.3+33.7 = 264M

OS = 592.4+42.6+4+15+70+30 = 592.4+161.6 = 754M

WW = 1.018 billions

 

If we give this projection a likely 90% accuracy, we get a 999M to 1.037B range.

Will still people think this will have trouble overtaking DM2?

With "The Emoshit 💩" movie underperforming, I think this is reasonable.

[peludo]

12 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Earlier today I ran the numbers more closely to evaluate where DM3 is heading. I calculated and cross-checked how much Minions had done OS in 2015 exchange rates versus how much DM3 has done in 2017 exchange rates in the exact same markets, same release points (number of weekends) and without ER adjustments. 

Very interestingly, the detailed analysis results align with what some users here (@Omni, @ZeeSoh and @grim22) have been saying early on regarding the film's 1B potential. We'll see in the coming weeks.

 

Overseas Results:

 

Minions: $612.135 million OS so far 

(in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

DM3: $592.4 million OS so far (3.3% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

(latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

*Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

 

CC: @peludo@FantasticBeasts@Stutterng baumer Denbrough

If anyone is interested in the full charts, let me know. 

First of all, congrats for your work.

 

I do not make this kind of exercises because lack of time, but I have adjusted Minions with today ER (not inflation). It would have made today about $779m OS.

 

DM3 has already outgrossed Minions in Argentina, Australia, China and India taking into account today ER. Brazil and Mexico are quite close.

[MinaTakla]

12 minutes ago, peludo said:

First of all, congrats for your work.

 

I do not make this kind of exercises because lack of time, but I have adjusted Minions with today ER (not inflation). It would have made today about $779m OS.

 

DM3 has already outgrossed Minions in Argentina, Australia, China and India taking into account today ER. Brazil and Mexico are quite close.

Thanks Peludo! So if the gap between DM3 and Minions as per my analysis and your ER adjustment holds after a couple more weekends:

DM3 should be around 96.7% (same % of OS gross difference between the 2 films currently without ER adjustments) X 779m OS (your adjusted ER total for Minions) = 753.5m OS.

And that's the exact number @Omnijust gave a few hours ago based on a separate projection.. This is interesting.

Edited August 1, 2017 by MinaTakla

[FantasticBeasts]

Do you remembr during the OW when people were talking about franchise fatigue, saying that Minions 2 will struggle and suggesting that Illumination will have to develop new IPs???

What we have now? Probably the biggest money earner of the year with a gross at least 12x its budget..

[miketheavenger]

5 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Do you remembr during the OW when people were talking about franchise fatigue, saying that Minions 2 will struggle and suggesting that Illumination will have to develop new IPs???

What we have now? Probably the biggest money earner of the year with a gross at least 12x its budget..

Franchise fatigue is going to happen eventually, though. For the long term Illumination does need new IPs, but for now they're obviously still more than fine.

[Rthmessiah]

Intl atm should end up around 730+

[MinaTakla]

5 hours ago, Rth Homecoming said:

Intl atm should end up around 730+

Does that intl projection include markets not yet open like Italy and Turkey or only the current markets, RTH? Thanks!

[Rthmessiah]

24 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Does that intl projection include markets not yet open like Italy and Turkey or only the current markets, RTH? Thanks!

yep

[Omni]

15 hours ago, miketheavenger said:

Franchise fatigue is going to happen eventually, though. For the long term Illumination does need new IPs, but for now they're obviously still more than fine.

The 5th release is the key one, as beloved franchises hold very well, especially OS, until the 4th installment. The problem is that this franchise has an atypical structure, with a spinoff behaving like the 3rd movie of the series. If Minions is somehow perceived by OS audience as something parallel to the DM franchise, Minions 2 and probably also DM4 will keep doing fantastic numers. Otherwise, Minions 2 will likely perform like Pirates 5 and DM4 will be the final chapter.

[FantasticBeasts]

Call me crazy but I don't see Minions 2 missing one billion.

Minions are beloved and have been one of the key reasons for DM's success. They are still super relevant today and kids seem to loooove them.

I agree though that franchise fatigue will occur. Don't forget that no matter how great this run is, it happened with the best conditiona possible as DM3 basically faced zero competition for the whole summer..

I think DM4 will not reach 1b and DM5 (If it happens) will see further drops.

Edited August 2, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[Asyulus]

7 hours ago, Rth Homecoming said:

Intl atm should end up around 730+

How about DOM?

[FantasticBeasts]

With 730+ OS it will need $270m DOM for the bili which should happen although not very easily.

[Omni]

41 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Call me crazy but I don't see Minions 2 missing one billion.

Minions are beloved and have been one of the key reasons for DM's success. They are still super relevant today and kids seem to loooove them.

I agree though that franchise fatigue will occur. Don't forget that no matter how great this run is, it happened with the best conditiona possible as DM3 basically faced zero competition for the whole summer..

I think DM4 will not reach 1b and DM5 (If it happens) will see further drops.

Correction: they've been THE key success of the DM series - which, one can say, IS the minions. Ever seen any merch involving Gru's face or any other character? No, just the yellow bananas.

I agree Minions 2 will pass the billion, and with ease if the ER improves in the next years.

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, Omni said:

Correction: they've been THE key success of the DM series - which, one can say, IS the minions. Ever seen any merch involving Gru's face or any other character? No, just the yellow bananas.

I agree Minions 2 will pass the billion, and with ease if the ER improves in the next years.

Yeah I agree. Although Gru and the girls are also pretty likeable characters.