July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[Yandereprime101189]

So, I'm kinda glad Tarzan did better than expected this week, but it still did 38 million in its three-day OW with a budget that's $180 million. Isn't it kinda worse off than Independence Day right now, that had a $41 million opening weekend with a $165 million budget. I mean, Tarzan might have better legs, but still. . . 

[MovieMan89]

32 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

So, I'm kinda glad Tarzan did better than expected this week, but it still did 38 million in its three-day OW with a budget that's $180 million. Isn't it kinda worse off than Independence Day right now, that had a $41 million opening weekend with a $165 million budget. I mean, Tarzan might have better legs, but still. . . 

Yes, Tarzan is SOL with that budget and no scenario could have saved it. Another case of studios not remotely using their brains when greenlighting some of these budgets. 

[Jandrew]

Remember the majority, like 80%+, of movies don't make their money on first run anyway. Everyone's acting like this Tarzan situation is something new.

 

Tarzan and WB will eventually get saved by FX who will start playing the shit out of it in two short years.

 

Tarzan and Pacific Rim double features, every Saturday for the rest of your life.

[filmlover]

Legend of Tarzan will make more than Independence Day 2. That should make WB happy enough, while at the same time make Fox extremely embarrassed. Serves them right.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Legend of Tarzan will make more than Independence Day 2. That should make WB happy enough, while at the same time make Fox extremely embarrassed. Serves them right.

I am not sure if they look at the other movies of rival studios like that.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

I am not sure if they look at the other movies of rival studios like that.

The fact Independence Day 2 is gonna barely crawl across $100M (and that's if it's lucky at this point) is enough for everyone to point and laugh.

 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact Independence Day 2 is gonna barely crawl across $100M (and that's if it's lucky at this point) is enough for everyone to point and laugh.

 

True. But then again, Tarzan cost 15M more and is gonna end what? 15M above it at most? I think they will just both stay quiet while Disney wins the year (even with Alice 2 and BFG bombing) and embarasses them. Meanwhile Universal will continue their good year with two more box office hits and Sony and Paramount will continue lost and confused without any idea of what to do next. In the middle of all of this Lionsgate plans how to trick the international partners again and sell the rights to a Hunger Games prequel for 200M and a final Divergent movie for 150M.

[The Panda]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, Tarzan is SOL with that budget and no scenario could have saved it. Another case of studios not remotely using their brains when greenlighting some of these budgets. 

 

Thats a yes and a no.  Budgets can go over, the studio heads don't know how a film will turn out beforehand.  When they greenlighted Tarzan, Pan hadn't bombed yet, and all of

 

Snow White and Huntsman, Maleficent, Cinderella, Oz, etc..

 

Had been pretty big hits.

 

They also had a safe director from two highly acclaimed Potter films at the helm.  Sure, the movie didn't work out like they had initially planned, but that isn't going to always happen.

 

I doubt the initial budget was so high, and I doubt they planned on the movie turning out like it did quality wise.  By the time things weren't turning out how they planned it was likely too late and so they probably decided to eat the costs and go light on marketing.

 

Studioheads can make stupid decisions, and then sometimes something can seem completely safe and it turns out wrong.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

True. But then again, Tarzan cost 15M more and is gonna end what? 15M above it at most? I think they will just both stay quiet while Disney wins the year (even with Alice 2 and BFG bombing) and embarasses them. Meanwhile Universal will continue their good year with two more box office hits and Sony and Paramount will continue lost and confused without any idea of what to do next. In the middle of all of this Lionsgate plans how to trick the international partners again and sell the rights to a Hunger Games prequel for 200M and a final Divergent movie for 150M.

It was accepted a while ago that The Legend of Tarzan was gonna be a rather significant domestic loss. That said, $110-120M total is nothing to sneer at for a film that has long fallen under the "troubled" category.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was accepted a while ago that The Legend of Tarzan was gonna be a rather significant domestic loss. That said, $110-120M total is nothing to sneer at for a film that has long fallen under the "troubled" category.

OS should be strong and it should end a bit above 400M WW so yeah, it is ok in the end. It should actually give a small profit when all is said and done.

[Johnny Tran]

I'd rather be WB than FOX. All things considered, WB is probably going to have a pretty strong year and they have some tentpoles with potential.  Deadpool saved FOX from a truly anemic first half of the year.

[marveldcfox]

No amount of spinning can make IDR look okay. It's a flat out bomb. The thing got a superbowl spot, which Trazan didn't. It is a sequel to a massive blockbuster. Should have grossed atleast 600 million worldwide with 3d and inflated ticket prices. 

 

Tarzan exceeded everyone's expectations. I am also confident it will gross as much as IDR if not more in China. 

[K1stpierre]

Wait, how come the title for this isn't updated? It's still Fri #'s....

[CJohn]

Lmao at IDR being called a bomb. What is BFG? The Huntsman? Alice 2? Pan? Jupiter Ascending? Gods of Egypt? Allegiant? We need a new word to describe those.

[CJohn]

Also, Tarzan is DOA in China. It opens there 3 days before the new Jackie Chan movie. RIP. And by definition if IDR is a flat out bomb so is Tarzan, Pacific Rim, Genisys, Warcraft, between many others.

[Webslinger]

Finding Dory is still performing quite well, although the arrival of The Secret Life of Pets will take a chunk out of it next weekend.

 

The Legend of Tarzan went well above and beyond low expectations, but it's a pyrrhic victory against such an enormous production budget. It definitely benefited from Warner Bros's aggressive advertising, and it also got a pretty big break from the awful under-performance of its PG-13 action competition in Independence Day. At a minimum, it should be able to surpass $100 million; nevertheless, even with overseas business factored in, I don't think it will be successful enough to gain a sequel.

 

The Purge: Election Year had a really good opening. I guess Universal compensated for the gap in release years with a perfectly-timed political hook. As Lecter said over at KJ, this series has basically become the heir apparent to the Saw franchise, so I won't be surprised if we see another one open around or over $30 million next summer.

 

It's a bummer that The BFG didn't perform better, but Disney basically sealed its fate with a half-hearted ad campaign (and given that Finding Dory has been making money hand over fist, it's hard to blame them for focusing their attention there rather than on BFG). Despite the strong CinemaScore, it's in a tough spot with huge competition coming up on Friday.

 

Independence Day held better than I expected it would, but that's not saying much. It should drop like a rock after the titular holiday passes, and I hope that said drops will be massive enough to prevent it from reaching $100 million... a mark that its predecessor crushed in then-record time twenty years ago.

 

Central Intelligence has put up a pretty impressive run thus far. It could close around or over $125 million, which puts it well above all other mid-range prospects of the summer season thus far.

 

The Shallows held up nicely for its genre. Despite the eleventh-hour announcement, I think that moving the release date up by five days definitely helped; it first took advantage of Independence Day's soft market presence, and the word-of-mouth allowed it to hold its own against a strong opening from another horror-thriller offering.

 

Free State of Jones didn't crumble, but it's still not doing well overall.

 

I'm kind of bummed by the poor legs for The Conjuring 2, but at least it's going to surpass $100 million, which is no small feat for a horror sequel.

 

Solid enough for Swiss Army Man, which I thought would bomb horribly in semi-wide release. Sight unseen, I'm guessing it's way too damn weird for the multiplex audiences that theoretically saw it over the weekend.

[marveldcfox]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lmao at IDR being called a bomb. What is BFG? The Huntsman? Alice 2? Pan? Jupiter Ascending? Gods of Egypt? Allegiant? We need a new word to describe those.

Disasters.

 

[Webslinger]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lmao at IDR being called a bomb. What is BFG? The Huntsman? Alice 2? Pan? Jupiter Ascending? Gods of Egypt? Allegiant? We need a new word to describe those.

 

They're all duds, but Independence Day's performance feels especially bad considering that its predecessor smashed records left and right and made $300 million back when only a small handful of films had ever done so without the assistance of a re-release.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lmao at IDR being called a bomb. What is BFG? The Huntsman? Alice 2? Pan? Jupiter Ascending? Gods of Egypt? Allegiant? We need a new word to describe those.

Maybe not a bomb but whoo boy is it an embarrassment for all involved. A sequel to a 20 year old event movie is gonna make less than 20% of its admissions. They should be hanging their heads in shame, for sure.

[K1stpierre]

IDR was just an unnecessary sequel. A sequel no one asked for. Period.