Weekend Thread | Read first post for rules | Weekend #s: Pets 50.56M, GB 46M, Tarzan 11.1M, FTF 11M, MND 7.5M, Purge 6M

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

Was sitting next to a theater programmer during my flight delay today. He was trying to figure out how many screens to give to Bourne and how many to Bad Moms. He ended by saying "I will ask my wife if she has any interest in watching Bad Moms" to decide his programming schedule.

It makes sense, Bad Moms was selling more than CI was in Rallax's last update.

[Rthmessiah]

top engagements
1-Regal Union Square NYC              (GB)
2-Arclight hollywood                  (GB)
3-AMC Empire 25 NYC                   (GB)
4-AMC Lincoln Square                  (GB)
5-AMC Metreon 16, San Fran             (GB)
6-AMC Burbank                         (GB)
7-CMK Mountain View , Mountain View CA (SLOP)
8-ST  Casa Blanca , San Antonio TX      (GB)
9- Landmark, Los Angeles CA             (CS)
10-Cobbs dolphin Miami FL        (SLOP)
11-Regal Court St, Brooklyn NY            (GB)
12-City Angelika FC, NYC         (CS)
-
13-AMC 84th st NYC            (SLOP)
14-AMC burbank                (SLOP)
15-Arclight Sherman Oaks        (GB)
16-CPLX Yonge & Dunbas Toronto ON    (GB)

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

Alright, so I've done the graphs and analysis comparing 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW (the "Baumer Metric"). Long story short, for films released in summer it's probably worth examining the entire 2nd week vs OW in addition to just the 2nd weekend vs OW. Taken together, these metrics suggest it's unlikely for Pets to have a multiplier below ~3.1 ($323M), and the most probable multiplier is around 3.3 ($344M).

 

The set of data is from a total of 76 films. Criteria for inclusion are as follows:

1. The film must have had a Friday opening.

2. The film must appear on all three of these lists: OW, 2nd weekends, and 10-day totals. This is in large part for my convenience, but I'm doubtful that a wider set of films would produce a more accurate result for our film of interest (Secret Life of Pets).

3. The film must have completed or nearly completed its box office run. This excludes Finding Dory and Secret Life of Pets.

4. The film must not be Avatar. It's a ridiculous outlier and all by itself causes a significant reduction in the strength of the correlations, which is pretty absurd in a data set of this size.

 

Sorry for the poor quality of the graphs, they look a lot better in Excel. I'm still working on a better way to export them as images, I'll replace them once I've got that figured out.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the 2nd weekend to the opening weekend:

The black points represent the entire data set, with red squares around summer films (N=41, released from May to August inclusive), blue triangles around non-summer films (N=35), and purple circles around films classified as "animated" by Box Office Mojo (N=12). The lines of best fit are similarly colour-coded. The R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001), and shows that about 80% of the variance in the multiplier can be predicted from the ratio of 2nd weekend to opening weekend. There does appear to be a slightly different relationship for summer films vs. non-summer films. I haven't done a significance test for that yet, it'll take a while. The animated film set isn't large enough to justify a separate mathematical analysis, but by inspection it does appear that animated films mostly follow the trend for other summer/non-summer films. Shrek Forever After and Zootopia deviate the most from the general trend.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the full 2nd week (Mon-Sun) to the opening weekend:

The data points and lines of best fit are coded the same as in the previous graph. Again, the R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001). However, while the strength of correlation for the summer set is about the same, the strength of the correlation for the winter set is reduced significantly (P<0.05). This makes sense given the relative weakness of weekdays outside of summer, and further justifies treating summer films and non-summer films separately. Even though the strength of the correlation is about the same for summer films using either metric, visual inspection makes it clear that the two metrics are not the same. Using the entire second week, Shrek Forever After no longer obviously deviates from the general trend for summer films, and instead Finding Nemo and Up appear to be outliers.

 

I decided to combine the two metrics for summer films to see if that would increase the strength of the correlation compared to either metric alone. The following graph compares the multiplier to the simple unweighted average of the 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW ratios:

Here the summer films are represented by solid red squares, with purple circles surrounding animated films. Visual inspection makes it appear as though their might be a non-linear relationship, but an exponential fit is not significantly better, nor were any other basic fits. I suspect that the appearance of non-linearity is an artifact being created by a few outliers. The R-squared value of 0.88 for the linear regression of this combined metric is higher than the value for each of the individual metrics, but falls short of being a significant improvement by usual standards of statistical scrutiny (P<0.05). That being said, while the actual P-value of 0.14 falls short of usual standards, a 14% chance of this improved relationship occurring by chance is good enough for me to take it into consideration. Again, the summer animated films generally follow the trend of other summer films, although Finding Nemo and Up deviate quite noticeably.

 

What does this all mean for Secret Life of Pets? Using visual inspection rather than a precise calculation (since I don't know the amount of error in the slopes and intercept calculated by the regression):

Based on the first graph - 2nd weekend/OW = 0.485, multiplier of around 3-3.3 ($313M - $344M)

Based on the second graph - 2nd week/OW = 0.947, multiplier of around 3.2-3.6 ($333M - $376M)

Based on the third graph - Average = 0.716, multiplier of around 3.2-3.4 ($333M - $355M)

 

So as much as I'd rather it didn't, I think Pets has about a 50/50 chance of beating Zootopia. (Nothing against Pets - my avatar should suffice as explanation.)

 

Thanks @Baumer, good insight to take into consideration full second week as well as weekend for summer films.

 

This is incredible.  Wow.  Very nice job.  Everyone should check this out.

[filmlover]

I still thinking Bad Moms will be a $50-60M grosser.

[Rthmessiah]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

I thought GHOSTBUSTERS was fantastic. One of the best studio summer movies in the last couple of years.

Tele's on the turps

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I still thinking Bad Moms will be a $50-60M grosser.

I honestly think it's going to do 100M.

[filmlover]

Tele is obviously a misandrist.

 

 

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

I thought GHOSTBUSTERS was fantastic. One of the best studio summer movies in the last couple of years.

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I honestly think it's going to do 100M.

If it does that it'll be largely be default of there being no comedy competition (Central Intelligence will begin shedding theaters soon and Mike & Dave never caught on and is already fading fast).

[UrosepsisFace]

3 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

March 25th was a long time ago. I think we can let the BvS stuff go.  $872M WW means it at worst broke even at the box office and it will turn a nice profit from everything else. This idea that it's one of the biggest bombs we've seen (or even a bomb period) is utterly ridiculous lol

 

You know, other than the animated blockbusters, the three most successful summer movies so far came from WB. CI with 117, Tarzan with 103, and The Conjuring 2 with 101. You add those three numbers up and you get less than BvS's 330. BvS was a pretty scary flop. Looking like Suicide Squad might be next. 

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

I need to mod my computer to play the opening cue every time Rth does a driveby number drop

[MrPink]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

 

It's OK, Tele is pulling a prank on you

 

 

[Chaz]

16 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

It's OK, Tele is pulling a prank on you

 

 

my dream

[Dementeleus]

33 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

It's OK, Tele is pulling a prank on you

 

 

 

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Ghostbusters was fantastic. I'm shocked how much I loved it. Had some of the best use of 3D I've ever seen in a film. If you haven't already, you have to see it in IMAX 3D.

[Ethan Hunt]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I honestly think it's going to do 100M.

[MrPink]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

Ghostbusters was fantastic. I'm shocked how much I loved it. Had some of the best use of 3D I've ever seen in a film. If you haven't already, you have to see it in IMAX 3D.

 

Who hacked into Jayhawk and Tele's computer?

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Ghostbusters was fantastic. I'm shocked how much I loved it. Had some of the best use of 3D I've ever seen in a film. If you haven't already, you have to see it in IMAX 3D.

 

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Who hacked into Jayhawk and Tele's computer?

It's one of the rare movies where the sum was greater than its parts. It's just worked for me. BTW the Sully trailer looked fantastic in real IMAX. That seems like a must watch at the Smithsonian.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

It's one of the rare movies where the sum was greater than its parts. It's just worked for me. BTW the Sully trailer looked fantastic in real IMAX. That seems like a must watch at the Smithsonian.

 

WE GOING TO THAT BREH