Weekend Thread | Bourne 60M, Trek 24M, Bad Moms 23.4M, Pets 18.2M

[a2k]

- 4.6M weekend would give DORY a drop of 36% EDIT: ~4.3M. Closer to 40% over the weekend, with Rth's Friday update.

- PETS could be above TREK next weekend.

- 104M cume after a 23.8M weekend. 160M is the high end for TREK imo. Next weekend with SS, drop will be 50-55%.

- GHOSTB still doubtful about 130M. 130M would be 2.83x multiplier.

Edited July 30, 2016 by a2knet

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, Rth said:

FIJB 23.3, BM 9.6, STD 6.7, SLOP 5.5, LO 3.5,  NER/WYNGC/IA5 3.1, FTF 1.1, TNIAL .8

 

Pets vs Trek should be close. Trek looks like 21-22M for the weekend and Pets looks like 20-21M. Bad Moms may just be slightly frontloaded by the looks of it, still good for 26-28M.

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Mattel don't think so, source: Variety http://variety.com/2016/film/news/mattel-strong-ghostbusters-toy-sales-1201820557/

 

What do you mean not well at all overseas? It's performed well in its first big markets. 

 

 

Its performed average at best in Uk and Australia

[John Marston]

Great for Bourne. Especially since many thought marketing was lackinng

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Reserved Seating Info approx 5 min max before showing.

 

Irvine Spectrum I presume.

 

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

- 4.6M weekend would give DORY a drop of 36%

- PETS could will be above TREK next weekend.

- 104M cume after a 23.8M weekend. 160M is the high end for TREK imo. Next weekend with SS, drop will be 50-55%.

- GHOSTB still doubtful about 130M. 130M would be 2.83x multiplier.

 

FTFY

The drop for Trek is really surprising. The movie had great reviews and what looked like great word of mouth (personally I haven't heard anyone say that it sucks or even that it was bad). 

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Irvine Spectrum I presume.

 

 

FTFY

The drop for Trek is really surprising. The movie had great reviews and what looked like great word of mouth (personally I haven't heard anyone say that it sucks or even that it was bad). 

 

 

Bourne appealed to same type of audience 

[picores]

58-61m weekend for Bourne sounds good enough to me. With better marketing and reviews this should have been a 80m OW though...

Edited July 30, 2016 by picores

[MikeQ]

52 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

How does TFA lack depth?

 

The First Order is pretty good analogy for the rise of neo fascism around the world.

 

It's not easy to think of many blockbusters more relevant to the challenges facing this generation.

 

I started writing a whole bunch, and then decided against so as to not derail the thread. I PM'd you, and am happy to continue conversing in the Force Awakens thread too.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Mojoguy]

The drop for Trek is really surprising. The movie had great reviews and what looked like great word of mouth (personally I haven't heard anyone say that it sucks or even that it was bad).

The biggest complaint about Trek is that it feels like a TV episode and the story is not worthy of a movie.

[TLK]

17 minutes ago, grim22 said:

1). Jason Bourne (UNI), 4,026 theaters / $22M to $22.5M Fri. (includes $4.3M previews) / 3-day cume: $59.8M to $61M / Wk 1

2). Bad Moms (STX), 3,215 theaters / $9.6M (includes $2M previews) / 3-day cume: $26M to $27M / Wk 1

3). Star Trek Beyond (PAR), 3,928 theaters (0) / $6.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $22.8M (-61%) / Total cume: $104M / Wk 2

4). The Secret Life of Pets (ILL/UNI), 3,677 theaters (-371) / $5.6M to $5.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19M / Total Cume: $296.4M/ Wk 4

5). Ice Age: Collision Course (FOX), 3,052 theaters (+5) / $3.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.5M to $11.2M (-51%) / Total cume: $42.5M / Wk 2

6). Ghostbusters (SONY), 3,052 theaters (-911) / $2.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M / Total: $105.5M / Wk 3

7). Lights Out (WB/NL), 2,818 theaters / $3.6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.8M(-50%) / Wk 2

8). Nerve (LGF), 2,538 theaters / $3.75M Wed. (includes $1M Tues. previews) / $2.3M Thurs. / $3.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $9M / Total cume: $15.4M to $16M / Wk 1

9). Finding Dory (DIS), 1,733 theaters (-843) / $1.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.6M / Total cume: $469.3M / Wk 7

10.) Hillary’s America…(Qual), 1,066 theaters (-151) / $753K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.4M / Total: $8.7M / Wk 3

Noteworthy:

12). Cafe Society (LG/AMZ), 565 theaters (+515) / $321K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.1M/ Per screen average: $3,778K / Total cume: $3.79M / Wk 3

16). Absolutely Fabulous (FSL), 355 theaters (+42) / $224K Fri. / Per screen: $2K / 3-day cume: $734K / Total cume: $3.3M / Wk 2

34). Indignation (RSA), 4 theaters / $25K Fri. / 3-day cume: $78K / Per screen: $19,547 / Wk 1

 

How is Cafe Society going to make $2.1 million from $321k Friday ? One of those numbers is wrong. Good for Bourne though. I was expecting a sub-$50 million opening.

[grim22]

Getting near 20M would be a MONSTER hold for Pets in its 4th weekend. I remember when it opened 4 weeks ago we had a lot of people claiming it would fade away by dropping 60% and 50% and Ice Age 5 would hurt it and so on and so forth. Having watched it, I can definitely see why it is getting good word of mouth - it is not great but it is not bad either. I enjoyed it and the story is pretty relatable as well. Plus the animation is good and the characters were fun, and a pretty upbeat ending to send people home happy. Loved the "Some Like It Hot" reference as well.

[Talkie]

35 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Ghostbusters only shrinks when adjusting for inflation while the rest shrink without adjusting. Doesn't seem fair. 

 

 

 

22 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I would think that is absolutely fair.  You want to really say it increased based on a 30 year time gap?

 

Ghostbusters is dead in the water.  Not only was the domestic box office very meh, but it is not performing well at all overseas.  Even worse is the merchandise is turning out to be very poor and most stores are trying to unload everything on clearance.  

 

Are you guys comparing the original Ghostbusters (1984) to the current reboot? The '84 version made $229M domestic and was a major hit, second only to Beverly Hills Cop for the yearly crown by a measly $5M. It beat Indiana Jones 3 by a wide margin. (1984 was a damn good year for movies. ☺) GB's inflation-adjusted total is $589M, which is pretty damned fine. 

[Rthmessiah]

4 minutes ago, TLK said:

 

How is Cafe Society going to make $2.1 million from $321k Friday ? One of those numbers is wrong. Good for Bourne though. I was expecting a sub-$50 million opening.

CS fri is way wrong 

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Pets vs Trek should be close. Trek looks like 21-22M for the weekend and Pets looks like 20-21M. Bad Moms may just be slightly frontloaded by the looks of it, still good for 26-28M.

 

Last weekend's internal multiplier gives PETS 18.7M with 5.5M Friday. I think 20M would be tough to hit. Probably 18.5-19.5M.

TREK 23M imo.

 

I think TREK will fall 50-55% next weekend for 10.5-11.5M and PETS would need a 40-45% drop to beat it. So they should swap places.

Edited July 30, 2016 by a2knet

[VinceMichaudC]

Just now, Rth said:

CS fri is way wrong 

 

As in higher or lower? Is Deadline's take on Indignation wrong too?

[TLK]

Just now, Rth said:

CS fri is way wrong 

 

Yeah, that's what I thought. $321k will probably take it to only about $1.1 million.

 

[a2k]

IO's weekend was 17.7 BTW.

It's weekdays were much stronger than PETS but right now PETS weekend will be higher by 1-1.5m.

IO did get an expansion later on but PETS still has a good shot at beating it.

ZOOTP is going down.

Edited July 30, 2016 by a2knet

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

IO's weekend was 17.7 BTW.

It's weekdays were much stronger than PETS but right now PETS weekend will be higher by 1-1.5m.

IO did get an expansion later on but PETS still has a good shot at beating it.

ZOOTP is going down.

 

IO was hit by Minions on this weekend. Illumination helping its own movie retroactively. But a 34-36% drop for Pets is somewhat ridiculous for sure. 

[a2k]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

IO was hit by Minions on this weekend. Illumination helping its own movie retroactively. But a 34-36% drop for Pets is somewhat ridiculous for sure. 

lol, true.

[DeeCee]

Bourne is performing much better in Australia.