#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[JB33]

12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I meant as in numbers. I have IW at $440M and Panther at $350M.

 

If IW only does $440M, man....

Edited July 9, 2017 by JB33

[Brainbug]

Follow-Ups to big movies tend to fall by a fair amount like we have seen with Age of Ultron compared to The Avengers. The next one would be JW: FK, but three things make me believe that it could actually also land in the 600M+ range of Jurassic World:

 

1) The Goldblum is back. Didnt help ID42, but that movie sucked and this will not. Furthermore, his role as Ian Malcolm is far more iconic and beloved.

 

2) Dinosaurs are still a rarity in summer blockbusters and appeal to everyone and their mums. In a crowded field of superhero flicks and animated movies, JW2 will still be something different and the GA will see it as that.

 

3) They're bringing back the animatronics and the director is an expert in character drama and horror in spanish cinema. This will be a thriller in the finest sense of the word and generate terrific WOM.

 

Ofc, all this can only happen if the film is well-received. But Universal took their time with the sequel, they didnt rush it and i just have so much confidence in Bayona.

[YM!]

Pets 2 will go sub $200M in its current release date.

[Apollo2xx]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Follow-Ups to big movies tend to fall by a fair amount like we have seen with Age of Ultron compared to The Avengers. The next one would be JW: FK, but three things make me believe that it could actually also land in the 600M+ range of Jurassic World:

 

1) The Goldblum is back. Didnt help ID42, but that movie sucked and this will not. Furthermore, his role as Ian Malcolm is far more iconic and beloved.

 

2) Dinosaurs are still a rarity in summer blockbusters and appeal to everyone and their mums. In a crowded field of superhero flicks and animated movies, JW2 will still be something different and the GA will see it as that.

 

3) They're bringing back the animatronics and the director is an expert in character drama and horror in spanish cinema. This will be a thriller in the finest sense of the word and generate terrific WOM.

 

Ofc, all this can only happen if the film is well-received. But Universal took their time with the sequel, they didnt rush it and i just have so much confidence in Bayona.

God I really want JW2 to succed. Jurassic World was one of the most enternaing films that I saw in the last few years and I love this movie so much, so I will be really pissed if they screw up the sequel.

[raegr]

I honestly see JL doing 400-550 Domestically. If its really good, F8 better watch out for that worldwide record!

[cannastop]

I think Dunkirk has a shot at $180m dom.

[a2k]

Overperform

2017 At Blond, Ferdinand 

2018 Grinch, Meg

 

Underperform

2017 Coco, Jumanji

2018 AIW, AQM

[a2k]

I feel JL will be right in between SM's 325-330m (looking like) and GOTG2's 385-390m.

If those numbers hold for SM, then the middle point between SM and GOTG2 is 355-360m.

 

Leaving some cushion (say 15m), would consider sub-340m (355-15) an under-performance and over-375 (360+15) an over-performance for JL.

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Overperform

2017 At Blond, Ferdinand 

2018 Grinch, Meg

 

Underperform

2017 Coco, Jumanji

2018 AIW, AQM

Why Ferdinand overperforming?

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Why Ferdinand overperforming?

the character is known amount young ones. i expect coco to under-perform and this animation will do better than expected.

for coco under-performance is below 170-180 imo and for ferdinand by over-performance i mean above 110-120.

Edited July 9, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

Overperformers of 2018:

Black Panther ($300M+)

Wrinkle In Time ($200M+)

Tomb Raider ($165M+)

Ready Player One ($250M+)

New Mutants ($200M+)

Incredibles 2 ($400M+)

Alita Battle Angel ($200M+)

Meg ($175M+)

Grinch ($300M+)

Animated Spider-Man ($200M+)

 

Underperformers of 2018:

Maze Runner 3 ($75M-$85M)

Fifty Shades Darker ($90M)

Pacific Rim 2 ($75M)

Robin Hood ($50M)

Han Solo (sub $400M)

Deadpool 2 ($280M-$305M)

Bumblebee (sub $100M)

Hotel Transylvania 3 ($125M)

Jungle Book ($90M)

Dark Phoenix ($115M)

Ralph 2 ($175M)

 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

the character is known amount young ones. i expect coco to under-perform and this animation will do better than expected.

for coco under-performance is sub-180 imo and for ferdinand by over-performance i mean above 120.

Really, the character is known? It's from an old book, and was adapted by Disney a long time ago.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

for coco under-performance is sub-180 imo and for ferdinand by over-performance i mean above 120.

I also think Coco is underperforming too. The Star I can see doing $150M+. I feel Jumanji might draw more families than Ferdinand.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I also think Coco is underperforming too. The Star I can see doing $150M+. I feel Jumanji might draw more families than Ferdinand.

Jumanji has a bigger name but it can backfire with bad marketing. I don't see the first trailer as a family-friendly film trailer. It seems lost on whom to target and might miss everyone.

[YM!]

Just now, a2knet said:

Jumanji has a bigger name but it can backfire with bad marketing. I don't see the first trailer as a family-friendly film trailer. It seems lost on whom to target and might miss everyone.

Good point. 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Really, the character is known? It's from an old book, and was adapted by Disney a long time ago.

i think the character has lingered on mediums like youtube. not very well known but not completely new either. these things are parly anecdotal and i got interested because i remember the cartoon from disney.

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I feel JL will be right in between SM's 325-330m (looking like) and GOTG2's 385-390m.

If those numbers hold for SM, then the middle point between SM and GOTG2 is 355-360m.

 

Leaving some cushion (say 15m), would consider sub-340m (355-15) an under-performance and over-375 (360+15) an over-performance for JL.

I actually think JL will get to $400M but under Wonder Woman.

[YM!]

Honestly I'm surprised no one did a JL under WW club yet.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Honestly I'm surprised no one did a JL under WW club yet.

I feel that's certain thought.

Even 160 ow/2.5x/400 dom is likely to leave JL behind WONDR.

that ow and multiplier (even for Nov) are he high-end for JL.

Like BVS was to MOS, JL will behave like a sequel to DOJ.

Better legs owing to November, but have given better legs than SS and MOS.

OW is also huge for November at 160 (just 6 below BVS).

So 160/2.5x/400 still not enough to catch WONDR.

 

What's ur OW/legs projection for JL?

[YM!]

Just now, a2knet said:

I feel that's certain thought.

Even 160 ow/2.5x/400 dom is likely to leave JL behind WONDR.

that ow and multiplier (even for Nov) are he high-end for JL.

Like BVS was to MOS, JL will behave like a sequel to DOJ.

Better legs owing to November, but have given better legs than SS and MOS.

OW is also huge for November at 160 (just 6 below BVS).

So 160/2.5x/400 still not enough to catch WONDR.

 

What's ur OW/legs projection for JL?

$155M/$410M (2.65x) seems fair. However not seeing anything higher than $420M.