#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[Premium George]

Emoji movie will overperform to $150 million.

[YM!]

Dark Tower over $150M domestic.

[cannastop]

The new Blade Runner will make less than $100m dom.

[Bigausorus]

The new Blade Runner will do big if the reviews are good. 50M / 230M

[IronJimbo]

On 21/12/2016 at 9:16 PM, Tele Came Back said:

Moderation:

 

ENOUGH WITH THE JAMES CAMERON AND AVATAR SHIT

He's arguably my favorite director, but goddammit, this nonsense is infecting every single goddamn thread here.

lol

 

I think Dunkirk will not do aswell as people on here are hoping, war films just aren't that interesting to the GN.

Edited April 23, 2017 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

10 hours ago, cannastop said:

The new Blade Runner will make less than $100m dom.

 

Arrival only made 101m DOM, sad!

 

I think this will have the best marketing of any Villeneuve film, 400m WW! Here we go

[junkshop36]

14 hours ago, YourMother said:

Time to revive this

Overperform:

Justice League: Most here are thinking around $280M-$325M for this one, however think there is a good chance for $400M, especially if Wonder Woman is good.

 

Captain Underpants: With the slew of DWA movies we tend to underpredict. Thinking it could perform similar to Trolls.

 

Kingsman 2: This reminds of 22 Jump Street all over again, this could do over $150M+, even with Ninjago.

 

Ninjago: If Cars 3, DM3, and Emoji do average business like I expect, I could see this surprise us.

 

Animated Spider-Man: Although Lego Batman is finishing with $175M, normally I'd expect the same for this, especially with the previous Spider-Man cartoons, however Spider-Man has two things going for it. 1.) Miles Morales, an African American/Hispanic character is this movies Spider-Man and will draw people in. 2.) Christmas legs

 

Underperform:

Coco: Although it's Pixar, Moana had less competition and more hype and did barely $250M.

 

Deadpool 2: This will do over $300M, but not much more due to the huge competition it deals with.

 

Han Solo: Although it's Star Wars, given the competition and perhaps lack of necessary, I could see $400M as the maximum even in the summer.

 

 

I would be quite happy with that gross for the Han Solo movie actually. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

 

I would be quite happy with that gross for the Han Solo movie actually. 

Same, tbh I could see AIW, TI2, and JW2 gross more domestic if it stays in that Summer Spot.

[YM!]

GOTGV2 will do around CW numbers ($179M/$408M) with a smaller OW like around $150M-$165M.

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

GOTGV2 will do around CW numbers ($179M/$408M) with a smaller OW like around $150M-$165M.

Trying to figure out whether you think this is an over performance or an under performance

[YM!]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Trying to figure out whether you think this is an over performance or an under performance

Over performance

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Over performance

I hoped so. I'll take the flipside and say it stays flat or does less than the first one

[MCKillswitch123]

I guess we could start talking about an Incredibles 2 underperformance compared to some crazy predicts out there

 

Also don't see It doing much more than Split's 140M. 155M tops.

Edited July 9, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Cochofles]

Infinity War will underperform

Black Panther will overperform

[YM!]

Just now, Cochofles said:

Infinity War will underperform

Black Panther will overperform

How much we talking about?

[YM!]

Holiday 2018 animation slate: Grinch ($340M) > Spider-Man: The Animated Movie ($205M) > Ralph 2 ($185M).

[Cochofles]

32 minutes ago, YourMother said:

How much we talking about?

 

I am not good at this; I am just going by gut. 

I feel that the whole "OMG, GOTG finally face to face with Avengers...so many heroes and villains together against a greater threat" element in Infinity War is being wildly overestimated. I feel that it won't be as incredibly appealing (or groundbreaking) as many people believe.

I also think that being the first full-fledged major superhero film led by a black hero (and predominantly populated by black characters) is going to push Black Panther beyond typical CBM stats (not unlike what happened with Wonder Woman being the first first full-fledged major superhero film of our time led by a woman).

 

Just my opinion. 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Cochofles

[Eric the Fall Guy]

As time goes on, the more and more I think Meg has potential to really overperform. Both The Shallows and especially 47 Meters Down went above expectations and had really strong holds, and these were shark movies that were pretty cheap. So a big-budget shark movie has good potential to blow up, especially since there won't be much competition, outside of M:I 6 and Predator. I'm not completely 100% confident, especially since Jason Statham has never really been a good draw in the domestic box office, but I think it will easily cross the $100M mark.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

 

I am not good at this; I am just going by gut. 

I feel that the whole "OMG, GOTG finally face to face with Avengers...so many heroes and villains together against a greater threat" element is being wildly overestimated. I feel that it won't be as incredibly appealing (or groundbreaking) as many people believe.

I also think that being the first full-fledged major superhero film led by a black hero (and predominantly populated by black characters) is going to push Black Panther beyond typical CBM stats (not unlike what happened with Wonder Woman being the first first full-fledged major superhero film of our time led by a woman).

 

Just my opinion. 

I meant as in numbers. I have IW at $440M and Panther at $350M.

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

As time goes on, the more and more I think Meg has potential to really overperform. Both The Shallows and especially 47 Meters Down went above expectations and had really strong holds, and these were shark movies that were pretty cheap. So a big-budget shark movie has good potential to blow up, especially since there won't be much competition, outside of M:I 6 and Predator. I'm not completely 100% confident, especially since Jason Statham has never really been a good draw in the domestic box office, but I think it will easily cross the $100M mark.

 

I wouldn't say 100M, but I kinda agree. Sausage Party and Don't Breathe last year, and hopefully Annabelle II and Hitman's Bodyguard this year, proved that late August is a good market for cheap R-rated adult blockbusters. And if they really sell Meg as Jaws meets Transporter, I think that the GA might eat that shit up big time. I would not be shocked if this went way over expectations.