#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[Hades]

Mary Poppins under 200 mill domestic

 

[MCKillswitch123]

On 10/10/2016 at 6:09 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

Self-explanatory title. This thread is for you to expose your unpopular opinions on which films do you think will underperform and overperform, mostly within the next 12 months. Everybody has their own opinions, after all, so why not expose them?

 

For me, an overperformer that not a lot of people are probably expecting is Annabelle II. Everybody is almost dead sure that it's going under the 1st, that it'll have a hard time making it to 200M WW and all of that, and I'll give you this: it's not often that a sequel to a successful horror film is more so than its predecessor. However, the 1st Annabelle was a smash hit in spite of having piss poor WOM. The trailer for the sequel has done solid viral business. Said sequel is being directed not by the guy that made The Butterfly Effect 2 and Mortal Kombat: Annihilation (again), but rather by David Sandberg, the same gentleman that brought us this year's Summer darling Lights Out. And The Conjuring 2, despite having lesser WOM than the 1st movie, still did more than it WW (one of the very few sequels this year to accomplish such feat, alongside Cap 3, Dory, and technically BVS). I think that if Annabelle II manages to get the exact same levels of strong marketing produced for the original and The Conjuring films, and tops that off w/an actually good movie this time (which, coming from the guy that directed Lights Out, should be easier than w/the previous guy), it has all the makings in the world for redemption and a nice little breakout. I firmly think it can break at least 300M WW.

 

On the other hand, one that I think some folks are getting a bit too high is, sadly, Coco. Which yeah, that comes in 13 months, not 12, but whatever, I didn't say it had to be exclusive to just the year space. Now, I'm a mega Pixar fanboy, and I would LOVE to see Coco succeed. Hell, it probably will succeed. It's got an interesting thematic, visual style, and it's directed by Lee Unkrich, the Toy Story 3 guy. Brilliant. But here's the thing: the last time that Pixar released a film in Thanksgiving before the arrival of a new Star Wars episode, it was The Good Dinosaur. And we all know how that went. TGD flopped big time, not just thanks to lack of Pixar-worthy WOM (I actually think it's a bad movie, period), but because marketing was absolute garbage, since SW swept away all the hype and TGD's trailers impressed no one. And even though marketing has never been an obstacle to Pixar pre-TGD, it still doesn't erase the fact that Coco is surrounded w/tough competition that it's not guaranteed to fight off. It comes under a month after Thor 3 and Justice League, 2 weeks after Sony Animation's The Star, and less than a month after Episode VIII. And yeah, you can name drop Inside Out as a movie that survived crazy competition and all, and Coco can pull an IO if it's utterly phenomenal and one of Pixar's best ever. But if it's not? I'd call Wall-E numbers overachieving quite a bit at that point, tbh.

 

But enough me, what are your unpopular picks?

Annabelle: Creation broke 300M WW.

 

Coco came in under Wall-E DOM but still pulled an Inside Out WW through incredible wom.

 

NAILED IT

Edited June 18, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[dudalb]

I think the animated SPidey and Venom will not do as well as a lot of people here think.

[dudalb]

"Mary Poppins" is going to be very dependent on what kind of reviews and reception it receives. If it has a good reception the sky is the limit. If it has a bad or even muted reception, it will underperform.

If you making a sequel to one of best beloved movies of all time, you has better deleiver a really good product. Just "OK" will not do.

That being said, I so think there is  prejeudice against MPR here because it is not a "Geek/Nerd" film.

[Hades]

26 minutes ago, dudalb said:

"Mary Poppins" is going to be very dependent on what kind of reviews and reception it receives. If it has a good reception the sky is the limit. If it has a bad or even muted reception, it will underperform.

If you making a sequel to one of best beloved movies of all time, you has better deleiver a really good product. Just "OK" will not do.

That being said, I so think there is  prejeudice against MPR here because it is not a "Geek/Nerd" film.

Nothings against MPR but A sequel to the most beloved films of all time should have more trailer views than Wrinkle in time....Trailer views can be deceptive but for now it does not scream breakout. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

"Mary Poppins" is going to be very dependent on what kind of reviews and reception it receives. If it has a good reception the sky is the limit. If it has a bad or even muted reception, it will underperform.

If you making a sequel to one of best beloved movies of all time, you has better deleiver a really good product. Just "OK" will not do.

You are right for audience reception, but it is targeting a very reviews robust crowd, were the word of mouth can give any legs release date.

 

Beauty and the Beast reception (6.5/10 critic score type of movie) should be more than enough on the reviews side.

[Barnack]

46 minutes ago, Hades said:

Nothings against MPR but A sequel to the most beloved films of all time should have more trailer views than Wrinkle in time....Trailer views can be deceptive but for now it does not scream breakout. 

Do we have a source for the facebook/twitter/other view count ? not as reliable but that a movie targeting an audience that will watch them massively that way I would think versus googling/going on youtube.com, unlike a Solo or power rangers.

[IronJimbo]

Alita over-perform, people are writing if off at another GiTs but the comparison is shaky at best.

 

Poppins expectations are unrealistically high.

 

 

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

Do we have a source for the facebook/twitter/other view count ? not as reliable but that a movie targeting an audience that will watch them massively that way I would think versus googling/going on youtube.com, unlike a Solo or power rangers.

That might be some of the problem. A movie that does not have an active fanbase like most ranchises being a huge hit is probably hard to beleie for a lot of the younger crowd.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

7 hours ago, dudalb said:

"Mary Poppins" is going to be very dependent on what kind of reviews and reception it receives. If it has a good reception the sky is the limit. If it has a bad or even muted reception, it will underperform.

If you making a sequel to one of best beloved movies of all time, you has better deleiver a really good product. Just "OK" will not do.

That being said, I so think there is  prejeudice against MPR here because it is not a "Geek/Nerd" film.

Agreed, the character is beloved, even made it into the Olympics ceremony with James Bond and the big bad villain from Harry Potter, but that cuts both ways and fans can reject a version that doesn't meet their high standards. Disney seems to have very confident, to have thrown it out there months before it's been released that they plan to give it an Oscar push, when they really aren't a big awards player, overall.

 

Another thing to consider when assessing the financial potential of a real sequel to Mary Poppins is the box office of Saving Mr. Banks. The presence of Tom Hanks helped, but in a supporting role and the movie was basically an also-ran throughout awards season and didn't get any above-the-line Oscar nominations to pad its domestic total. I'm trying to picture a movie about the process of getting the film rights to Bond or Potter scattered with flashbacks of the author's early years, making half as much as SMB and I just can't. So, if a good-but-not-great biopic drama about the writer of Mary Poppins did that well less than five years ago, the potential audience for the actual character in a proper musical, during the holiday box office season, is several times bigger. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by BoxOfficeChica

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

Another thing to consider when assessing the financial potential of a real sequel to Mary Poppins is the box office of Saving Mr. Banks.

I think it;s strength in home video sales versus jungle book, beauty and the beast or Cinderella is an other good indicator.

 

Sadly we do not have a very reliable source, but using the-numbers estimate:

 

In 2013

Marry poppins: 22.87 million, #72 best seller of the year

No jungle book in the top 100

 

In 2014

Jungle Book: 35.5m, #29

Poppins: 18.65m, #68

 

2015:

Jungle Book: No data or not top 100.

Poppins: 13.7m, #68

 

2016:

Jungle Book: No data or not top 100.

Poppins: 9.95m, #71

 

2017:

Jungle Book: No data or not top 100.

Poppins: 7m, #72

 

2018:

Jungle Book: No data or not top 100.

Poppins: 1.38m, #50

 

If the numbers is accurate, Cinderella didn't made the top 100 every year like this before the remake, Jungle book neither like Poppins is doing now 6 year's in a row, it could be easier and easier to classic/collectible type item/for older crowd to make the top 100 of physical sales has people more and more stay away for the regular movies, but it does feal like the movie has a really special place in people memory to do as well on home video.

 

Aladdin made the top 100 in 2015 for a comparable, Cinderella only in 2012, Jungle Book only in 2015, I would imagine the year a special release occurred for those title. Poppins it is every year since 2013 (the year Disney made a bluray 50 year's edition).

 

 

[harrycaul]

Mary Poppins depends almost entirely on Emily's take on the title character. Nothing else really matters, and that part is totally unknown at present.

 

 

 

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Mary Poppins depends almost entirely on Emily's take on the title character. Nothing else really matters, and that part is totally unknown at present.

I think Solo performance vs Wonder Woman agree with your take (and I am sure a good list of example), nailing the lead part is really important here.

 

We at least know about how it does look, from the picture/small teaser, they seem to have a working presentation that audience should accept imo (not just her but the production design, costume, director, etc.. jobs) quite well:

 

 

 

Sound superficial and basic, but I imagine that it is a really big part of it.

[StevenG]

Mary Poppins Returns will underperform.

 

Suspiria will overperform (at least I hope so with all my heart. The teaser looks a million times better than the original movie)...

[korrasami]

On 11/12/2017 at 7:10 AM, CoolEric258 said:

 

-The Incredibles 2 is something people are being way too high on. For comparison's sake, Finding Nemo was a cultural phenomenon that had unbelievable legs and was one of the biggest-selling DVDs of all time, making it one of those movies every kid has seen. Incredibles isn't up to that level, in spite of the insane Internet hype for the film. It'll still do very well, and I wouldn't be shocked if it hit $400M like many people here believe, but I feel Inside Out numbers are more likely for the film, which isn't bad in the slightest.

Well a billion dollars is a lock now, so how do you feel?

[Istealnames]

Mary Poppins will underperform OS. I don't see this making more than 600 M WW with the intense competition.

[MCKillswitch123]

Well, congrats to everyone who predicted Mary Poppins Returns to underperform against expectations.

 

Now we have 2019 to look forward to. Can't wait to see how many people will mention Detective Pikachu (not saying I'm one of them, though) 

[TMP]

Alita will under-perform

[IronJimbo]

On 6/18/2018 at 10:50 PM, IronJimbo said:

Alita over-perform, people are writing if off at another GiTs but the comparison is shaky at best.

 

Poppins expectations are unrealistically high.

 

 

Hoooo!

 

Half way there, the profit returns

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Alita will under-perform

The expectation on here seems for it to be to flop, so isn't that performing as expected? Unless of course you think it will bomb worse than Solo.