#UnpopularOpinions: Movies you think will overperform vs. movies you think will underperform given general expectations

[MCKillswitch123]

Self-explanatory title. This thread is for you to expose your unpopular opinions on which films do you think will underperform and overperform, mostly within the next 12 months. Everybody has their own opinions, after all, so why not expose them?

 

For me, an overperformer that not a lot of people are probably expecting is Annabelle II. Everybody is almost dead sure that it's going under the 1st, that it'll have a hard time making it to 200M WW and all of that, and I'll give you this: it's not often that a sequel to a successful horror film is more so than its predecessor. However, the 1st Annabelle was a smash hit in spite of having piss poor WOM. The trailer for the sequel has done solid viral business. Said sequel is being directed not by the guy that made The Butterfly Effect 2 and Mortal Kombat: Annihilation (again), but rather by David Sandberg, the same gentleman that brought us this year's Summer darling Lights Out. And The Conjuring 2, despite having lesser WOM than the 1st movie, still did more than it WW (one of the very few sequels this year to accomplish such feat, alongside Cap 3, Dory, and technically BVS). I think that if Annabelle II manages to get the exact same levels of strong marketing produced for the original and The Conjuring films, and tops that off w/an actually good movie this time (which, coming from the guy that directed Lights Out, should be easier than w/the previous guy), it has all the makings in the world for redemption and a nice little breakout. I firmly think it can break at least 300M WW.

 

On the other hand, one that I think some folks are getting a bit too high is, sadly, Coco. Which yeah, that comes in 13 months, not 12, but whatever, I didn't say it had to be exclusive to just the year space. Now, I'm a mega Pixar fanboy, and I would LOVE to see Coco succeed. Hell, it probably will succeed. It's got an interesting thematic, visual style, and it's directed by Lee Unkrich, the Toy Story 3 guy. Brilliant. But here's the thing: the last time that Pixar released a film in Thanksgiving before the arrival of a new Star Wars episode, it was The Good Dinosaur. And we all know how that went. TGD flopped big time, not just thanks to lack of Pixar-worthy WOM (I actually think it's a bad movie, period), but because marketing was absolute garbage, since SW swept away all the hype and TGD's trailers impressed no one. And even though marketing has never been an obstacle to Pixar pre-TGD, it still doesn't erase the fact that Coco is surrounded w/tough competition that it's not guaranteed to fight off. It comes under a month after Thor 3 and Justice League, 2 weeks after Sony Animation's The Star, and less than a month after Episode VIII. And yeah, you can name drop Inside Out as a movie that survived crazy competition and all, and Coco can pull an IO if it's utterly phenomenal and one of Pixar's best ever. But if it's not? I'd call Wall-E numbers overachieving quite a bit at that point, tbh.

 

But enough me, what are your unpopular picks?

Edited December 20, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[That One Girl]

Power Rangers: People are quick to say under 100M.  I think it should hit 50M OW, and could leg its way to 150M if it's good.  If not, 130M seems like a decent target. 

 

Red Sparrow/Murder on the Orient Express: I think both will hit 100M, riding on the strength of their stars and intriguing plots.

 

Thor Ragnarok: People keep saying it'll be the highest grossing Thor movie.  I'm not seeing it.  I think it'll go below 200M, actually.

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

Since I'm working out my winter game predictions right now, I see Hacksaw Ridge pulling an Unbroken/Lone Survivor, Arrival going for 150+ and Fantastic Beasts barely cracking 200 (if not going under). 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

I see Hacksaw Ridge pulling an Unbroken/Lone Survivor

 

The MPAA rating alone makes me disagree with this:

 

"Rated R for intense prolonged realistically graphic sequences of war violence including grisly bloody images"

 

That's a worse description than Saving Private Ryan, American Sniper, and Lone Survivor.  Something tells me the GA might not be able to stomach the film if it really is this violent.

[Eric Duncan]

Overperform

Well I'm the one who has the "Fantastic Beasts over Half-Blood Prince" club, so I clearly think Beasts will oveperform and be #2 this winter behind Rogue One. It's got the Harry Potter brand, a brand that's still insanely popular and well-respected I might add, easy 4-quad appeal, and it will have appeal to people who didn't join the Potter craze, by virtue of being an original story.

 

This movie hasn't gotten much discussion, if at all, but I feel Rock That Body has potential to be the biggest comedy next summer. The premise seems very Hangover-like, its script was in a huge bidding war, and it has a stellar cast, with its leading lady being Scarlett Johannson, and a supporting cast including four potential rising stars, one of them being an Emmy winner I might add. The only real speed bump with that movie could be The House, but if RTB strikes a chord and ends up being really funny, I think it could be a real surprise.

 

Most people think that Ninjago will do around Hotel Transylvania numbers, but I think it could be the first September movie to cross $200M. Lego Movie was a smash hit, and Lego Batman will do the same, and Tsujihara is reportedly focusing on Lego being a huge moneymaker for WB, so with that brand recognition, WB's marketing powah, and it being one of the most popular toylines currently for Lego Group, this movie's gon' explode.

 

Underperform

Next March looks to be YUGE, but I feel Logan could get hurt by it. With Kong and Beauty and the Beast being the main attractions for moviegoers, Logan wasn't going to be a huge hit regardless, but I feel that it has potential to be the lowest-rated X-Men movie. Its title doesn't scream "X-Men" to me, and its R rating could potentially be a hinderance. Yeah yeah yeah, I know about Deadpool, but that had the virtues of being much more unique in the superhero landscape, thanks to lampooning the genre and its oddball character. It'll still do good, but around Origins: Wolverine numbers, or even Apocalypse numbers? Nah.

 

War for the Planet of the Apes I just don't see crossing $200M. Dawn's only major competition it had to face was Transformers 4, which severely underperformed, and Lucy, which did just a cool $125M. War will be surrounded by Despicable Me 3, Spider-Man, and Dunkirk. Yeah, Dawn had amazing reception, and War could be the same, yadda yadda yadda, but Dawn's explosion was largely in part because there was nothing else out in theaters when it was released IMO. War won't have that benefit, so it'll probably chill in the $160-190M range.

 

This is all I have so far.

[cannastop]

Beauty and the Beast will only make $300m dom.

[Hades]

Spiderman Homecoming under Amazing Spiderman (2012).

[Lordmandeep]

JL Part 1 Will make around mid 350's and will be seen as a sucess but only from a box office point of view.

[robertman2]

Ninjago, Assassin's Creed, and Power Rangers will over perform, while Justice League, Passengers and Wonder Woman will under perform

[robertman2]

Also Fantastic Beasts will overperform

[filmlover]

Overperform: La La Land over $125M.

Underperform: Pirates 5 under $100M next year.

[HesAPooka]

Passengers wont perform as well as people think it will. 

[Ethan Hunt]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Overperform: La La Land over $125M.

 

I don't really think that's an unpopular opinion

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I don't really think that's an unpopular opinion

I wanted to go with over $150M but wasn't sure about going that high.

[Maxmoser3]

Every release this month underperforms. Doctor Strange, Trolls, Arrival, Billy Lynn, Beasts, Edge Of Seventeen,and Moana all overperform. Also Hacksaw Ridge will debut better than expectations. 

[kowhite]

Valerian will overperform.

 

And, yet...I don't agree with myself.  But...I should be right.

[The Futurist]

Star Wars the Jedi Temple will only do 750m dom.

Edited October 11, 2016 by The Futurist

[Ozymandias]

I think Arrival could do 150m

 

10 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

The MPAA rating alone makes me disagree with this:

 

"Rated R for intense prolonged realistically graphic sequences of war violence including grisly bloody images"

 

That's a worse description than Saving Private Ryan, American Sniper, and Lone Survivor.  Something tells me the GA might not be able to stomach the film if it really is this violent.

 

Lone Survivor and Saving Private Ryan were pretty fucking violent.  Black Hawk Down was really violent as well and that one adjusts to 160m, probably would've made more if it didn't come out right after 9/11.

 

I think Hacksaw Ridge is a potential sleeper hit.

[The Futurist]

There is violence and there is

 

Mel Gibson Violence.

[Captain H]

Overperform:

Valerian. I'm very convinced that this will be able to do better than Lucy and might even come close to the $200 million mark.

 

Also, considering the general prediction for Justice League seemed to be $280-330m, I think it will be safe to say that predicting a $400m+ finish for it is unpopular.

 

Underperform:

Rogue One. $500m+ is crazy. Over Civil War but under Dory is where I see it at.

 

And of course, with me thinking JL can get to $400m, that means Thor will suffer and might end just a little bit over $200m.