Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[Heretic]

16 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

Hey Heretic what would be a good opening for this in the UK?

Well most were expecting around £10m or so, which would have been a great opening. But actually, it seems to be defying belief right now and actually acting more like another Potter film than a spin off. Looks like it will actually open around £13m, maybe higher.

 

If only ER's weren't so shit right now. 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Heretic

[mahnamahna]

4 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

My only consolation with that ARRIVAL number (11.3) is that it's the highest PTA in the top 10 after Beasts and the 2nd or 3rd best drop in the top 10..

How much do you think it can end up making DOM given next weekend is thanksgiving? 

 

$9.5 million/$13 million ($59 million)

$5 million ($66 million)

$4 million ($72 million)

$2 million ($75 million)

$1.5 million ($78 million) 

$2 million ($82 million) 

 

Since it'll likely get some Oscar nods, I'd say another $10-15 million after New Year's. 

 

$90-95 million DOM is my guess, but it could end up at $85-90 million DOM. 

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I got a free ticket to see Inferno but it looks like it is already out of theaters lol

 

It's still playing at one of my local theaters.  It's also the theater that still played Ghostbusters through the end of August and kept Brothers Grimsby for like 3 weeks.  I think they have some kind of deal with Sony.  Lionsgate too, since they kept Nerve and Middle School each for about a month.

[junkshop36]

Going to see FB in a couple of hours. Not super pumped or anything. I enjoyed the HP movies for the most part and it looks solid so we'll see. 

 

If it hits 75m OW I can see it doing 190-200m DOM

 

[yjs]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Billy Lynn is no longer even playing in 120fps 3D at the Arclight. That screen is playing FB now. What a major disaster by Sony all around. They botched the rollout bigly.

speaking of which, has anyone here checked the 120fps? I'm super curious. But then again I was kinda let down by the Hobbit's 48fps.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, yjs said:

speaking of which, has anyone here checked the 120fps? I'm super curious. But then again I was kinda let down by the Hobbit's 48fps.

 

@Nutella of Arabia has. He might end up being the only person here to see it in that format.

[Fullbuster]

I see Moana between 200-250m, which is fine. I hope for more though, if the movie gets a Frozen-like WOM $300m would be a given.

[yjs]

33 minutes ago, James said:

If it matters, internationally it seems to behave like a family blockbuster rather than a HP flick. I doubt it only gets a 2.4x multi.

just wondering, what kinda multi do you think/hope it'll get? more like 2.7x~2.9x? or bigger than 3.0x?

[grim22]

FB is at 53M OS with 30M yesterday. It can most likely add another 70M+ in the next 2 days. Won't be surprised with a 200M WW estimate tomorrow morning. Probably looking at a 600-700M WW finish depending on how China performs.

[yjs]

3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I see Moana between 200-250m, which is fine. I hope for more though, if the movie gets a Frozen-like WOM $300m would be a given.

I've changed my mind and will happily take anything over BH6, lowering from my previous $250M bar.  Think I've just panicked a bit unnecessarily with the clouded judgment by the not-entirely-impossible TGD scenario. 

[James]

2 minutes ago, yjs said:

just wondering, what kinda multi do you think/hope it'll get? more like 2.7x~2.9x? or bigger than 3.0x?

Yeah, something around 2.7-2.8x sounds about right.

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

FB is at 53M OS with 30M yesterday. It can most likely add another 70M+ in the next 2 days. Won't be surprised with a 200M WW estimate tomorrow morning. Probably looking at a 600-700M WW finish depending on how China performs.

It will add much more than 70m OS in the next few days. The Sat increase should be huge in most major markets. Just look at SK. 200m WW will easily go down. Expecting more in the line of 220m. 

[grim22]

Trying to follow Sony's logic with Billy Lynn - Lets make a movie in a new format and ensure literally no one can see it in that format 

[MinaTakla]

FORBES on FB. Is that why holdovers dropped more than expected combined with the inflated Friday?

The $180 million-budgted film earned solid Cinemascore ratings across-the-board on Friday (A+ for under-18, A- for over 25, etc.), so that’s good. But the film played just 18% under the age of 18, meaning this “kid-friendly” magical fantasy played mostly to grownups. It played a whopping 45% to audiences over 35-years-old. In other words, at a glance, and considering the terrible performances from the other adult-skewing newbies this weekend, the film isn’t getting new fans into the magic but rather playing to nostalgia-driven J.K. Rowling super fans.

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by MinaTakla

[Noctis]

How are sellouts compared to yesterday for Beasts?

[Noctis]

4 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

FORBES on FB. Is that why holdovers dropped more than expected combined with the inflated Friday?

The $180 million-budgted film earned solid Cinemascore ratings across-the-board on Friday (A+ for under-18, A- for over 25, etc.), so that’s good. But the film played just 18% under the age of 18, meaning this “kid-friendly” magical fantasy played mostly to grownups. It played a whopping 45% to audiences over 35-years-old. In other words, at a glance, and considering the terrible performances from the other adult-skewing newbies this weekend, the film isn’t getting new fans into the magic but rather playing to nostalgia-driven J.K. Rowling super fans.

 

 

Bodes well for its legs.

[Fullbuster]

9 minutes ago, yjs said:

I've changed my mind and will happily take anything over BH6, lowering from my previous $250M bar.  Think I've just panicked a bit unnecessarily with the clouded judgment by the not-entirely-impossible TGD scenario. 

 

Let's hope for the best

[James]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Bodes well for its legs.

The thing is, I don't understand why it isn't translating (or maybe it is and it will have an awesome Saturday) to kids. If you take a look at the NYT bestselling list or at the Amaozn selling charts the books are still selling amazingly well. In fact, they haven't left the NYT Children's List at all in the last 9 years. Not even for a week. I think the problem was the marketing. Aside from the music, which not everyone knows, the connection wasn't really exploited. Actually, thinking about it, if it weren't for that last trailer that really exploded, the movie would have fared much worse. WB kinda dropped the ball on this one and I hope they learn from it. If marketed well, the sequel could do wonders for the franchise.   

Instead of that 'From the world of JK Rowling' tag they should've said 'From the world of Harry Potter'. The magical words. Yeah, it would've been like cheating, but still, it would've been effective. Drop the Potter name as much as you can.

Edited November 19, 2016 by James

[yjs]

2 minutes ago, James said:

Yeah, something around 2.7-2.8x sounds about right.

It will add much more than 70m OS in the next few days. The Sat increase should be huge in most major markets. Just look at SK. 200m WW will easily go down. Expecting more in the line of 220m. 

I can assure you at least in SK it'll practically dominate the market for about a month or possibly for more. No blockbuster competition till mid-to-late December, then one big local release, Rogue One and Passengers. But at least when it comes to Rogue One, Star Wars has a reputation for not clicking very well with Koreans. SO I can even see $40M+ for FB unless La La Land in early December gets in its way and pulls off a big surprise which is actually possible since Whiplash did extremely well here for what it is and LLL seems like such a crowd pleaser, plus its trailers are already getting great reactions, I see a potential $15M~$20M player.

[yjs]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Trying to follow Sony's logic with Billy Lynn - Lets make a movie in a new format and ensure literally no one can see it in that format 

I'm curious tho, can regular theaters support that new format or does Sony have to put in some investment for installing the new facilities? 

[James]

2 minutes ago, yjs said:

I can assure you at least in SK it'll practically dominate the market for about a month or possibly for more. No blockbuster competition till mid-to-late December, then one big local release, Rogue One and Passengers. But at least when it comes to Rogue One, Star Wars has a reputation for not clicking very well with Koreans. SO I can even see $40M+ for FB unless La La Land in early December gets in its way and pulls off a big surprise which is actually possible since Whiplash did extremely well here for what it is and LLL seems like such a crowd pleaser, plus its trailers are already getting great reactions, I see a potential $15M~$20M player.

That would be insane considering the max Potter got there was DH2's 30m and most of the other Potters didn't even break 20m.