Weekend numbers. Moana 28.3 | FB 18.5 | Arrival 7.3 | Allied 7 | DS 6.8 | Trolls 4.6 | Hacksaw 3.4

[a2k]

HP7 did 17m after a 4.9m Fri this same weekend post Thanksgiving.

FB can go higher than 17.2 (Deadline's projection) after a 5.3m Friday.

Going higher is not set in stone but it's been trending better than HP7.

18-19 is more likely IMO, compared to 17-18.

[terrestrial]

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Christ. they're rebooting that after just 12 years? Another Spidey situation.

You are late ... into that theme. I am a bit astonished about you just now realising it, usually you are more up to date with dates and numbers, or? I guess you do not watch DC for the moment (I too have to catch up a lot)

Aquqman,...  getting an own film (as answer to the MCU IMHO), getting more important in DC's film future was more or less announced in November 2013 and was accordingly a character in Batman vs Superman, played by the same actor as will be in Aquaman. DC's cinematic universe...

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

HP7 did 17m after a 4.9m Fri this same weekend post Thanksgiving.

FB can go higher than 17.2 (Deadline's projection) after a 5.3m Friday.

Going higher is not set in stone but it's been trending better than HP7.

18-19 is more likely IMO, compared to 17-18.

 

Potter films had more family audience and should have a higher increase on Saturday. I think 18 is the good point

[filmlover]

Now Jackie's projection is $51K PTA for the weekend. Pretty good, if still nothing Earth-shattering.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Now Jackie's projection is $51K PTA for the weekend. Pretty good, if still nothing Earth-shattering.

That's 13k less than what Manchester had. It's a great start.

[Jake Gittes]

Given Jackie's short runtime and hype for Portman's performance I honestly thought a $100k PTA wasn't out of the question. Half of that is still solid, but it's almost certain it won't be a breakout, more like another Wrestler or 127 Hours for Searchlight.  

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Given Jackie's short runtime and hype for Portman's performance I honestly thought a $100k PTA wasn't out of the question. Half of that is still solid, but it's almost certain it won't be a breakout, more like another Wrestler or 127 Hours for Searchlight.  

That's actually a good point that I didn't think about. Hmmm.

[yjs]

FB is surely going over $18M if it doesn't go north $20M, given its track record.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Given Jackie's short runtime and hype for Portman's performance I honestly thought a $100k PTA wasn't out of the question. Half of that is still solid, but it's almost certain it won't be a breakout, more like another Wrestler or 127 Hours for Searchlight.  

Their release pattern is curious given that they say it'll be in 200 theaters by Christmas Day. Could be a struggle if it ends up not getting much in the way of major recognition (aka nothing beyond Portman).

[mahnamahna]

4 hours ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Here's Deadlines numbers:

 

Go Manchester!!  and Hacksaw hanging tough!

 

The top 11 pics for Dec. 2-4, 2016 per industry estimates as of Friday evening:

1). Moana  (DIS), 3,875 Theaters (0) / $6.5M Fri (-70%) / 3-day cume: $30.3M (-47%)/Total: $121.8M/Wk 2

2). Fantastic Beasts…  (WB), 3,988 theaters (-156) /$5.3M Fri. (-71%)  / 3-day cume: $17.2M (-62%)/Total: $182.2M/Wk 3

3). Allied (PAR), 3,160 Theaters (0) /$2.2M Fri (-55%)/3-day cume: $7.7M(-39%) /Total: $29.6/Wk 2

4).Doctor Strange  (DIS), 2,935 theaters (-73) /$1.8M Fri (-67%) /3-day cume: $6.7M (-51%) /Total cume: $215.5M/Wk 5

5). Arrival  (PAR), 2,915 theaters (+473)/$2M Fri (-55%)/3-day cume: $6.6M (-43%)/Total:$72.4M/ Wk 4

6.) Trolls  (DWA/20^th Century Fox), 3,156 theaters (-166) /$1.09m Fri (-73%)/3-day cume: $4.9M (-54%) /Total Cume: $141.7M/Wk 5

7). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,494 theaters (+162) / $958K Fri (-56%)/3-day:$3.1M (-42%)/Total: $57.1M/ Wk 5

8.)  Bad Santa 2  (BG/MX), 2,945 Theaters (+25) /$901K Fri (-61%) / 3-day cume: $2.8M (-55%)/Total: $13.8M/Wk 2

9). Almost Christmas  (UNI), 1,556 theaters (-213) /$692K Fri (-70%)/ 3-day cume: $2.4M (-58%)/Total: $38.1M/ Wk 4

10.) Manchester by the Sea (RSA/AMZ) 156 theaters  (+108)/$653K Fri/3-day: $2.2M (+85%)/Total: $4.3M/Wk 3

 

$30-31 million 2nd weekend and a sub-50% drop for Moana would be excellent! That would give it a good chance at $265-280 million DOM. 

 

Since FB has had better legs than previous Potter films so far, I'd like to think it can do $18-18.5 million for the weekend. Not a great number, but $225-230 million DOM should still happen.

 

Allied is surprisingly leggy. It might sneak up to $50-55 million DOM. 

 

Doctor Strange held better than I expected. $235-240 million DOM is possible, depending on its holds over the next two weekends. 

 

Arrival should have held better considering the 473 theater increase. But since it's improved over estimates every weekend so far, it may still reach $7 million for the weekend. $100 million DOM should happen after its Oscar push. 

 

Trolls is holding as most would expect. Still, $150-160 million DOM is a solid result for a film most pegged at $70-80 million DOM until 'Can't Stop the Feeling' became a huge hit. 

 

Hacksaw Ridge held well again. $65-70 million DOM is solid considering it's grisly and distributed by Lionsgate. 

 

Bad Santa 2 and Almost Christmas are holding terribly for Christmas films. Usually those are the ones that get 35-40% drops over the post-Thanksgiving frame. This makes me think Office Christmas Party will become a surprise hit. 

 

Manchester is doing decent for its first major expansion. Next weekend only has one new release, so it could potentially add 100-250 more theaters.

 

 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

 

Manchester is doing decent for its first major expansion. Next weekend only has one new release, so it could potentially add 100-250 more theaters.

 

 

Two, actually (although Miss Sloane isn't gonna make much either way).

[yjs]

8 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Since FB has had better legs than previous Potter films so far, I'd like to think it can do $18-18.5 million for the weekend. Not a great number, but $225-230 million DOM should still happen.

I think if it holds up like GoF from now on it would at least pass $230M+, no? I'd say more like $230M~$240M, if not more. 

[terrestrial]

16 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Doctor Strange held better than I expected. $235-240 million DOM is possible, depending on its holds over the next two weekends.

I think its legs will mostly die the day SW R1 gets released

[Jake Gittes]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Their release pattern is curious given that they say it'll be in 200 theaters by Christmas Day. Could be a struggle if it ends up not getting much in the way of major recognition (aka nothing beyond Portman).

 

I wouldn't want to be in their position, it doesn't sound like an easy film to sell (not The Tree of Life or anything, but not your typical crowdpleasing biopic either), the Oscar noms aren't until late January, and it's insane how many prestige films will be competing for attention before then. This year is worse than ever in that regard, it's crazy that there weren't any big platform openings for two full months between Hell or High Water and Moonlight. Jackie isn't at fault here considering it was hardly on anyone's radar before Venice, but over a dozen hyped well-reviewed films for adults all playing during the holidays and January is straight-up unhealthy. Café Society and HOHW were smart - if you were ready for Cannes, don't wait another six months to get released. And as HOHW's awards traction shows once again, if a movie is good enough it won't be forgotten by the year's end.  

[Jake Gittes]

Manchester shouldn't wait until the 16th. Strike while the iron is hot and go 800+ theaters next weekend. 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

You are late ... into that theme. I am a bit astonished about you just now realising it, usually you are more up to date with dates and numbers, or? I guess you do not watch DC for the moment (I too have to catch up a lot)

Aquqman,...  getting an own film (as answer to the MCU IMHO), getting more important in DC's film future was more or less announced in November 2013 and was accordingly a character in Batman vs Superman, played by the same actor as will be in Aquaman. DC's cinematic universe...

Lol. I was referring to an unnecessary reboot from the 2006 Aquaman blockbuster starring Vincent Chase.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

I wouldn't want to be in their position, it doesn't sound like an easy film to sell (not The Tree of Life or anything, but not your typical crowdpleasing biopic either), the Oscar noms aren't until late January, and it's insane how many prestige films will be competing for attention before then. This year is worse than ever in that regard, it's crazy that there weren't any big platform openings for two full months between Hell or High Water and Moonlight. Jackie isn't at fault here considering it was hardly on anyone's radar before Venice, but over a dozen hyped well-reviewed films for adults all playing during the holidays and January is straight-up unhealthy. Café Society and HOHW were smart - if you were ready for Cannes, don't wait another six months to get released. And as HOHW's awards traction shows once again, if a movie is good enough it won't be forgotten by the year's end.  

As I said earlier, the reception for Jackie almost reminds me of Foxcatcher (both films were criticized for being "too cold"). And that movie stalled at $12M, so who knows.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Manchester shouldn't wait until the 16th. Strike while the iron is hot and go 800+ theaters next weekend. 

This. It could even get the biggest auditoriums at a lot of theaters if they expand before Star Wars.

[Jake Gittes]

Just now, filmlover said:

As I said earlier, the reception for Jackie almost reminds me of Foxcatcher (both films were criticized for being "too cold"). And that movie stalled at $12M, so who knows.

 

Yeah I think Jackie would be lucky to make it to 25-30m. And all of that makes me a bit more convinced that Stone will win Best Actress. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Yeah I think Jackie would be lucky to make it to 25-30m. And all of that makes me a bit more convinced that Stone will win Best Actress. 

Stone is winning IMO. Portman really needed to have an undeniable movie to justify a second Oscar so soon, and it appears that won't be the case.