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Dementeleus

ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Dementeleus, in Numbers and Data

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GiantCALBears Global Phenomenon

GiantCALBears

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, James said:

So an OW in the 126-139m using TFA preview-weekend ratio. Let's assume it the multi is higher and it hits the upper ceiling which is 150m. That's still a far cry from the 175m+ prediction a lot of people around here are throwing. I'm gonna put my weekend prediction at 132-133m. Let's see how close I get.

How do you have it only doing $100m after previews?

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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Posted (edited)

Third time this year I get to see a movie before it opens :shades: unfortunately not a month early and gonna also be the third time I can't post about it until previews start.

 

Shoot, I just remembered I actually did type up a semi review for TJB like a day before previews.

Edited by DAJK
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Posted
Just now, Jayhawk said:

Should still be a fun time. For VIII you definitely need to go to an IMAX 7pm showing. You'll really get to see the SW fanbase in action.

Definitely. Plus, that will have IMAX footage, so I'll be seeing it in IMAX regardless. Reserved seating is a godsend.

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Eevin Box Office Gold

Eevin

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Posted

Imho, these are the worst to best case scenarios:

 

The absolute worst case scenario for Rogue One:

$20m previews

$35m pure gross ($55m)

$30m Saturday ($85m

$20m Sunday ($105m)

Followed by crappy 2.8 legs and a $294m domestic total (which Disney will prolly fudge over $300m) followed by same 50-50 ratio for a $600m worldwide total.

 

The somewhat-disappointing-in-relation-to-inflated-expectations-and-presales scenario:

$25m previews

$40m pure gross ($65m)

$40m Saturday ($105m)

$25m Sunday ($130m)

Followed by subpar December legs like 3.1-3.2 and a $403m-$416m total, followed by a similar result overseas and a ~$850m worldwide total.

 

The somewhat logical scenario: 

$30m previews

$40m pure gross ($70m)

$45m Saturday ($115m)

$35m Sunday ($150m)

Followed by 3.3-3.4 legs and a $495m-$510m domestic total, followed by something like $600m overseas for a ~$1.1b worldwide total. 

 

The optimistic scenario:

$35m previews

$50m pure gross ($85m)

$50m Saturday ($135m)

$40m Sunday ($175m)

Followed by 3.4-3.5 legs and a $595m-$612m domestic total, $700m overseas and a $1.3b worldwide total.

 

The oh-my-God-everything's-great-no-way-good-lord scenario:

$40m previews

$60m pure gross ($100m)

$55m Saturday ($155m)

$45m Sunday ($200m)

Followed by TFA legs and a $750m-$760m finish (with the caveat that if this comes close to approaching Avatar, Disney will keep it in theaters for months), a $1b overseas tally, and a $1.75b worldwide total.

 

Obviously there are other scenarios, these are just the five that seem most plausible to me (not that I'm leaning toward the first or last at all, however).

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Dementeleus Cinematic Universe

Dementeleus

Posted
  • Author
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3 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Imho, these are the worst to best case scenarios:

[spoiler-tagged just for length]

3 minutes ago, Eevin said:

The absolute worst case scenario for Rogue One:



$20m previews

$35m pure gross ($55m)

$30m Saturday ($85m

$20m Sunday ($105m)

Followed by crappy 2.8 legs and a $294m domestic total (which Disney will prolly fudge over $300m) followed by same 50-50 ratio for a $600m worldwide total.

 

The somewhat-disappointing-in-relation-to-inflated-expectations-and-presales scenario:

$25m previews

$40m pure gross ($65m)

$40m Saturday ($105m)

$25m Sunday ($130m)

Followed by subpar December legs like 3.1-3.2 and a $403m-$416m total, followed by a similar result overseas and a ~$850m worldwide total.

 

The somewhat logical scenario: 

$30m previews

$40m pure gross ($70m)

$45m Saturday ($115m)

$35m Sunday ($150m)

Followed by 3.3-3.4 legs and a $495m-$510m domestic total, followed by something like $600m overseas for a ~$1.1b worldwide total. 

 

The optimistic scenario:

$35m previews

$50m pure gross ($85m)

$50m Saturday ($135m)

$40m Sunday ($175m)

Followed by 3.4-3.5 legs and a $595m-$612m domestic total, $700m overseas and a $1.3b worldwide total.

 

The oh-my-God-everything's-great-no-way-good-lord scenario:

$40m previews

$60m pure gross ($100m)

$55m Saturday ($155m)

$45m Sunday ($200m)

Followed by TFA legs and a $750m-$760m finish (with the caveat that if this comes close to approaching Avatar, Disney will keep it in theaters for months), a $1b overseas tally, and a $1.75b worldwide total.

 

Obviously there are other scenarios, these are just the five that seem most plausible to me (not that I'm leaning toward the first or last at all, however).

 

The wrinkle is that legs won't necessarily be tied to previews or OW. There could be a huge fan-rush (with giant previews numbers) followed by weaker legs, or the reverse.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, James said:

So an OW in the 126-139m range using TFA preview-weekend ratio. Let's assume the multi is higher and it hits the upper ceiling which is 150m. That's still a far cry from the 175m+ prediction a lot of people around here are throwing. I'm gonna put my weekend prediction at 132-133m. Let's see how close I get.

the massive anticipation for sw7 caused 4am shows to be sold out. previews will come back to reality on this one.  the multi will be closer to CA3 or BVS

 

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Eevin Box Office Gold

Eevin

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

[spoiler-tagged just for length]

 

The wrinkle is that legs won't necessarily be tied to previews or OW. There could be a huge fan-rush (with giant previews numbers) followed by weaker legs, or the reverse.

Yeah, I see your point. I'm not pretending like I'm going to be right with any of these, but just for the sake of optimistic/pessimistic predictions I put bigger legs with bigger OW. If I had to guess I'd say it'd be something like a $175m opening weekend with like 3.3-3.4ish legs for a total just under $600m. We'll see, though.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

[spoiler-tagged just for length]

 

The wrinkle is that legs won't necessarily be tied to previews or OW. There could be a huge fan-rush (with giant previews numbers) followed by weaker legs, or the reverse.

I think this will definitely be more backloaded than The Force Awakens, especially being a one-off prequel of sorts.

Edited by filmlover
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Well sure, but TFA had a 3.87x multi, that's nothing to sneeze at.

I edited my post to say I don't think it'll be anywhere nearly as frontloaded. :lol: even if it does $130M for the weekend $600M isn't completely off the table.

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