ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think that this weekend basically locks the top 10 biggest OW's of the year 2016:

1. Civil War - 179M
2. Batman V Superman - 166M
3. Rogue One - 155M
4. Finding Dory - 135M
5. Suicide Squad - 133M
6. Deadpool - 132M
7. TSLOP - 104M
8. The Jungle Book - 103M
9. Doctor Strange - 84M
10. Zootopia - 75M

8 freaking 100M+ openers. Taking the number of 100M+ OW's in one year record, previously held by 2015 at 6 (TFA, Jurassic World, Ultron, Furious 7, Minions, and MJ Part 2).

10 100+ next year?

 

Lego Batman, Beauty and the Beast, Fate of the Furious, Guardians 2, Wonder Woman, Despicable Me 3, Spider-man, Thor, Justice League, E8

Edited December 18, 2016 by MovieMan89

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I- snip - 

8 freaking 100M+ openers. Far shattering the number of 100M+ OW's in one year record, previously held by 2015 at 6 (TFA, Jurassic World, Ultron, Furious 7, Minions, and MJ Part 2).

nice realisation, thanks for sharing

[RamblinRed]

21 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

In 2011, Christmas weekend fell on the same days as this year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=51&p=.htm

 

it's actually interesting to look at these - especially in relation to MI and Sherlock which were the 2 big Christmas movies that year.

 

If you assumed similar trajectories to how those 2 movies performed. R! would look like this

OW 155MM

M-Th  (19-22) - 65-70MM (17-18 million Monday that is roughly 25% of the 4 day)

Fri-Sun (X-Mas wknd) 75-80MM (drops tended to be around 50% or slightly more due to X-Mas)

Mon-Thur (26-29) - these four days tend to be 40-50% larger than the previous week and the previous weekend due partially to huge monday numbers. So that would put you in the 95-100MM range for those 4 days 

Fri-Sun (NYE) - this weekend was flat to a slight increase for the 2 blockbusters and larger positive numbers for the smaller movies. So assume flat from the previous week, that is another 75MM.

Also note that the Monday Jan 2 is a Holiday and produces huge numbers that are just over a 10% drop from Sunday.

 

If that model held you would be looking at 465MM on the low end by end of day Jan 1st.

I don't expect it to be that high, but it just goes to show how much money can be made despite when the holidays fall. The Holiday's don't reduce the numbers, They just change when those numbers are made and basically pushes much larger weekdays (especially Monday) that make up for the lost volume on the 2 Saturday's.

 

I noticed that in the reporting there was both 3-day weekend tallies (Fri-Sun) and 4-day weekend tallies (Fri-Mon). Which gives an idea of why the Monday numbers are so large.

 

[terrestrial]

BOM created the first comparison/showdown for SW R1

 

BY DAY OF WEEK | BY DAY NUMBER

DAY	Rogue One	The Dark Knight	Catching Fire	The Hunger Games
WEEK 1
Fri	Est. $71,072,000 - / - $71,072,000 / 1	$67,165,092 - / - $67,165,092 / 1	$70,950,136 - / - $70,950,136 / 1	$67,263,650 - / - $67,263,650 / 1
Sat	Est. $46,354,000 -34.8% / - $117,426,000 / 2	$47,650,240 -29.1% / - $114,815,332 / 2	$52,619,106 -25.8% / - $123,569,242 / 2	$50,394,419 -25.1% / - $117,658,069 / 2
Sun	Est. $37,574,000 -18.9% / - $155,000,000 / 3	$43,596,151 -8.5% / - $158,411,483 / 3	$34,505,044 -34.4% / - $158,074,286 / 3	$34,877,678 -30.8% / - $152,535,747 / 3
ADVERTISEMENT (scroll to continue with chart)
Mon	-	$24,493,313 -43.8% / - $182,904,796 / 4	$12,321,722 -64.3% / - $170,396,008 / 4	$10,823,788 -69% / - $163,359,535 / 4

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevhgdk.htm

[redfirebird2008]

Just got back. That was awesome! Best Star Wars movie since Empire and it's not close. Loved the characters, loved the more adult story, loved the war movie feel of it, loved the emotional tone of it.  Edwards has redeemed himself in my eyes after rubbish Godzilla. 

[Daxtreme]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, nice job of cherry picking sub 70m openers that had poor WOM. All those 90+ openers you listed had well below a 3x multi, so you're not really helping your case there...

 

I didn't cherry pick anything, I went down the top 15 and ignored BvS and animation movies because they're historically showcasing epic legs. If you compare animation movies between themselves, which is fair, it also goes against your theory so that's something. Here's how it goes --

 

Finding Dory OW: 135M / 3.6 multiplier

Secret Life of Pets OW: 104M / 3.56 multiplier

Jungle Book OW: 103M / 3.53 multiplier

Zootopia OW: 75M / 4.54 multiplier

Moana OW: 56.6M / unknown multiplier, at least 2.9

Trolls OW: multiplier: 46.5M / 3.2 multiplier

Kung Fu Panda OW: 41M / 3.5 multiplier

 

(BTW I forgot to put multipliers with the live action version of this post, but when I do, I'm still right)

 

They all have fairly comparable multipliers, same for live action, therefore your theory that bigger openings can't be compared to smaller openings is bullshit.

 

You're not providing any numbers either by the way. 

 

If anything, your instant dismissal just further proves that you're flailing around at this point, grasping at straws and in utter denial.

 

That being said, I un-ignored you to talk, and this kind of answer just proves to me that you haven't changed one bit. In fact, I already know you're going to instantly dismiss this post with some made-up crap so...

 

Rogue One will have >3 multiplier, by a wide margin because of holiday legs. No, bigger openings doesn't mean worse legs (Avengers, Jurassic World anyone?), and I'm tired of your trolling so good riddance. I'm not replying further to this flailing kid.

 

Others, do what you must if you want, I don't care

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I didn't cherry pick anything, I went down the top 15 and ignored BvS and animation movies because they're historically showcasing epic legs. If you compare animation movies between themselves, which is fair, it also goes against your theory so that's something. Here's how it goes --

 

Finding Dory OW: 135M / 3.6 multiplier

Secret Life of Pets OW: 104M / 3.56 multiplier

Jungle Book OW: 103M / 3.53 multiplier

Zootopia OW: 75M / 4.54 multiplier

Moana OW: 56.6M / unknown multiplier, at least 2.9

Trolls OW: multiplier: 46.5M / 3.2 multiplier

Kung Fu Panda OW: 41M / 3.5 multiplier

 

(BTW I forgot to put multipliers with the live action version of this post, but when I do, I'm still right)

 

They all have fairly comparable multipliers, same for live action, therefore your theory that bigger openings can't be compared to smaller openings is bullshit.

 

You're not providing any numbers either by the way. 

 

If anything, your instant dismissal just further proves that you're flailing around at this point, grasping at straws and in utter denial.

 

That being said, I un-ignored you to talk, and this kind of answer just proves to me that you haven't changed one bit. In fact, I already know you're going to instantly dismiss this post with some made-up crap so...

 

Rogue One will have >3 multiplier, by a wide margin because of holiday legs. No, bigger openings doesn't mean worse legs (Avengers, Jurassic World anyone?), and I'm tired of your trolling so good riddance. I'm not replying further to this flailing kid.

 

Others, do what you must if you want, I don't care

I already broke down the statistics of how over 100m+ openers work, sorry if you missed it but I'm not wasting my time to do it again for you. Basically, it 100% supported my conclusion of hitting a 3x multi being very tough given the size of the OW, and the only ones that have done it have been extremely kid friendly films, which I don't believe R1 is at all. TDK is the one and only exception. 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

It will happen with the wide release.

I'll pull up this post when it makes more than Passengers (in the long run, that is).

 

Fittingly enough, I'm thinking the bad buzz surrounding Passengers will send people that would've seen it in the direction of La La Land.

Edited December 18, 2016 by filmlover

[ban1o]

Mm just came in. Is this considered good? 

[Daxtreme]

Also, I think that if you take ALL the movies this year regardless of word of mouth, and set animation in its own subcategory competing against only itself, smaller openings could be compared on even footing vs bigger openings as far as legs are concerned. As much as there are smaller opening movies getting uber legs because of word of mouth, there are movies around like Jane Got a Gun or some other movie like that getting UBER TOXIC WoM which would put even BvS to shame.

 

It all evens out in the end. You give equal weight to all this data, where every movie is worth 1, count their multipliers, and see what happens.

 

Movies with bigger openings seem to have worse legs because most of them are sequels. It has nothing to do with the size of the opening, it's just that legs are generally better on original movies vs sequels. Also, smaller movies getting uber legs are generally oscar contenders. Again, nothing to do with smaller openings, like sequels. It's just the nature of the movie doing work here. However, taking every movie into account should give us an average where huge movies with big openings but disgusting legs like BvS get canceled out by movies like Jane Got a Gun on the opposite side of the spectrum (lower openings)

 

When small openers crash and burn, they freaking get disintegrated and fall 80%+ in their 2nd week-ends.

 

Talk about being front-loaded. We're nearing light-speed front-loading at this point

 

...

 

Sadly I'm not wiling to do the maths because you have to include all movies released this year, and movieman just isn't worth it. Sorry.

 

We all know the answer anyway: size does not matter

 

 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'll pull up this post when it makes more than Passengers (in the long run, that is).

 

Fittingly enough, I'm thinking the bad buzz surrounding Passengers will send people that would've seen it in the direction of La La Land.

Passengers won't do much either. I am thinking under 100M right now.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

10 100+ next year?

 

Lego Batman, Beauty and the Beast, Fate of the Furious, Guardians 2, Wonder Woman, Despicable Me 3, Spider-man, Thor, Justice League, E8

I think Pirates 5 has a better shot than Lego Batman at $100 OW. I would put outside shots on Logan, War FTPOT Apes, and Transformers 5. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

I'll be watching Rogue one next week, finally!

 

Can't wait to see Gilroy's directing. I loved his previous works, by the way.

[robertman2]

15 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

 

n00b

I can whoop you in fighting games though. Come at me!

15 hours ago, elcaballero said:

@robertman2 How long am I going to have to look at that profile picture? 

 

FOREVER AND EVER

HAIL MONSTER TRUCKS

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

I can whoop you in fighting games though. Come at me!

FOREVER AND EVER

HAIL MONSTER TRUCKS

My little brother wants to go see that film, not sure I want to take him.

[JonathanLB]

MovieMan must be hungry! He wants his crow. Don't worry MovieMan by December 31 you'll have that hot crow dish with the BBQ sauce you love all ready to go. Just be on time, no disappearing act or you won't get your crow  lol

[MovieMan89]

13 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I think Pirates 5 has a better shot than Lego Batman at $100 OW. I would put outside shots on Logan, War FTPOT Apes, and Transformers 5. 

I would put Pirates down at like 15-17 among 100m potential openers next year. Gonna need a helluva marketing campaign from here to do it, the franchise is in pretty dire condition domestically. Logan is a wild card after what a viral hit the trailer has been, but as we know that doesn't necessarily mean everything. Apes I can't see because that would be too drastic of an increase over the previous opening. TF5 you never know, but after TF4 had to crawl and gasp over the 100 line, I highly doubt it. 

 

As for Lego Batman, I'll believe a Batman film opening to less than 100m in the modern era when I see it. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by MovieMan89

[robertman2]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

My little brother wants to go see that film, not sure I want to take him.

 

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

My little brother wants to go see that film, not sure I want to take him.

Take him. The movie will be so amazing, James Cameron and Chris Nolan will give up directing knowing they will never make anything as amazing

[Daxtreme]

39 minutes ago, hw64 said:

@Daxtreme, who liked your post, was seriously entertaining the possibility of a multiplier in the ballpark of those two, so he's got not legs to stand on. As far as I can tell he hasn't gotten anything right in the past few weeks.

 

Oh except, you know, being certified out of baumer's under 450 club.

 

Being certified out of the 600M+ rogue one club. 

 

 

I'll also be right on the holiday legs, but that hasn't yet come to past...

 

Tell me, which clubs did you join?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Oh except, you know, being certified out of baumer's under 450 club.

 

Being certified out of the 600M+ rogue one club. 

 

 

I'll also be right on the holiday legs, but that hasn't yet come to past...

 

Tell me, which clubs did you join?

I'd tread cautiously about gloating just yet. Nothing about a 155m opener says a 2.9x multi is impossible.