Tues #s (Asgard pg 136) R1 22.4 Sing 17.7 Pass 6 Moan 4.6 Ass 3.6 WH 3.4 Fen 3.1 LLL 2.6

[Lordmandeep]

I think whatever SW8 makes, SW9 will gross higher by default. 

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Oh ok. Don't thinks that's too bad of a drop honestly. But I wasn't one to freak out over AOU's drop from Avengers.

I wasn't singling you out man, I'm clearly frustrated with these $300m/$1b domestic takes. You aren't anywhere near there so I totally respect your points.

[Eevin]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

Rogue One's performance is showing just how popular the Star Wars franchise is in North America. Not be disrespectful to Paul Walker but if his death can boost the Furious franchise to the OW it had after he died, im failing to see how Carrie Fisher, an icon, won't have a tremendous effect on Star Wars OW next year. Last year TFA made almost a billion dollars domestically. $300M OW is not out of the question. 

Let's not get hasty, now. Yes, SW8 could have a Furious 7/The Dark Knight effect to some extent, but keep in mind that while both saw huge boosts from their predecessors, neither had a predecessor as big as TFA.

Sure, you can say "Furious 7 opened to $147m because of Paul Walker" or "The Dark Knight opened to $158m because of Heath Ledger", but both of their predecessors had much smaller opening weekends ($97m for F6, $49m for Batman Begins). You can't say that SW8 is going to have a blown up opening weekend like Furious 7 when Furious 7 was coming off of a $97m opening weekend and SW8 is coming off of a $248m opening weekend. 

Obviously, a lot of things can happen between now and next year, and I don't deny Carrie Fisher's death will affect it in some way, but you can't compare it to Furious 7, mostly because of how saturated TFA was already, especially compared to Fast and Furious 6.

[redfirebird2008]

11 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

i would argue the same if you think those deaths will have lesser effects than this.

 

In terms of box office, the Ledger effect was not just his death. Incredible acting performance mixed with death was a powerful one-two punch. 

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

VIII has a realistic shot at a billion, now. 

 

Seriously, the only reason it'll reach $1bn is if the hype surpasses TFA. That simply isn't possible, b/c TFA was coming off a 10 year dry spell.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

The legs for MCU films are having mediocre legs though, b/c the only way you can understand the films are if you watch every movie that came before. Only fanboys do that, not general movie audiences. The same may happen for Star Wars.

 

That is saturation

 

 

True but SW is odd..

 

 

Rogue one is really inside baseball for the Star Wars universe and its going to handily beat some of the most wide appealing general audience biggest blockbusters of the modern era.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I won't discount higher predicts for Ep 8. It's SW, anything can happen. Just please don't go around saying what a disappointing gross 675m is should it "only" make that much.

[wildphantom]

I literally could care less what kind of effect Carrie's passing will have on VIII's gross right now. She's been gone mere hours and that's all some people can think of? 

[terrestrial]

She has not a comparable role (size) in SW 8 - as far as I understand - to Walker in Furious had 

It is a long time till then, Wlaker was in the midths of shooting, a lot of buzz incl brothers helping out, immense efforts,... 

 

I think a few here go over the board a bit.

 

Let's wait and see how the film maarket will be in next early winter, what will all have happened (if a lot = people will feel it was long ago)

 

Don't understand the discussion (already...)

[franfar]

Think of it this way:

 

On a ranking scale of hype of 1-10, F&F went from about a 6 to a 10 after Walker passed away.

 

SW was already at a 10 by the time TFA released. 

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, wildphantom said:

I literally could care less what kind of effect Carrie's passing will have on VIII's gross right now. She's been gone mere hours and that's all some people can think of? 

 

May be insensitive to you, but it is a box office website. 

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

I won't discount higher predicts for Ep 8. It's SW, anything can happen. Just please don't go around saying what a disappointing gross 675m is should it "only" make that much.

Disappointment is all relative man, you've been around enough to understand how that cycle works.

[RyneOh1040]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

In terms of box office, the Ledger effect was not just his death. Incredible acting performance mixed with death was a powerful one-two punch. 

thats fair.  he was playing an iconic character that hadnt been in the film until that movie.  i just think the star wars brand is absolute PEAK right now and I think FOMO is a real thing that brings real money to the box office.  i think there are instances (Paul Walker's last FATF) where people who have had had no interest have gone to the movies for whatever reason.  I think its fear of missing out, they go because they think they should and they don't want to miss a cultural phenomoneon.  I think Episode 8 will have all of the backing of the fanbase an then some along with peak GA interest.  Just my opinion.  a 300 OW would really take something special but I think this now has a legit shot at outpacing VII OW.

[TommyA10]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

The legs for MCU films are having mediocre legs though, b/c the only way you can understand the films are if you watch every movie that came before. Only fanboys do that, not general movie audiences. The same may happen for Star Wars.

 

That is saturation

All the SW movies released so far showed great legs, and if a spinoff can manage a 3.4x multiple (at the very least), I see no problem for E8 doing the same or better. I think something like $215m OW and $750m total is perfectly doable.

[Bonenash]

yeah very sad indeed....

 

Fan of SW since 5 and makes me tear  ( i m 32 )

 

It's weird to talk Box office from this but in 2016 right now the media/twitter/facebook/youtube etc the news is already spread like a missile... so today or tomorrow everyone in the US and in the world will know that she died.

 

SO now for R1 even if her death will not affect it VERY MUCH people are curious some will rewatch it just to sea her some will see it cause they hearded she died it's sad but ....

 

As for Episode 8 i can assure you that all the year 2017 the media and all will remenber us that she died.... and when we ll be in novermber shit gonna be unreal..... generation from early 50 to 80's will see it even if they don't have plan too just will see her once last time and i will do the same.

 

In december 2017 prepare yourself to princess leia or carrie fisher in all the news in US newpaper of the day as radio/television.

 

It's a sad day a sad year for entertainment.... damn it....

 

RIP beyond the stars my dear.

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I literally could care less what kind of effect Carrie's passing will have on VIII's gross right now. She's been gone mere hours and that's all some people can think of? 

We can think of both. Look at the past 10 pages for the mourning. 

Edited December 27, 2016 by fracfar

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Let's not get hasty, now. Yes, SW8 could have a Furious 7/The Dark Knight effect to some extent, but keep in mind that while both saw huge boosts from their predecessors, neither had a predecessor as big as TFA.

Sure, you can say "Furious 7 opened to $147m because of Paul Walker" or "The Dark Knight opened to $158m because of Heath Ledger", but both of their predecessors had much smaller opening weekends ($97m for F6, $49m for Batman Begins). You can't say that SW8 is going to have a blown up opening weekend like Furious 7 when Furious 7 was coming off of a $97m opening weekend and SW8 is coming off of a $248m opening weekend. 

Obviously, a lot of things can happen between now and next year, and I don't deny Carrie Fisher's death will affect it in some way, but you can't compare it to Furious 7, mostly because of how saturated TFA was already, especially compared to Fast and Furious 6.

If so many people who had no interest in the Furious franchise went to go see it because of Walker's death, why wouldn't the same principle apply for Carrie Fisher and Star Wars? The thing about event films is that everyone wants to feel like they're apart of it. Next year Star Wars is going to be an event film. Then you have Carrie Fisher's death added to it and you'll have people coming in droves wanting to see Princess Leia for the last time. 

 

I dont see how thats such a hard concept to understand. 

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

All the SW movies released so far showed great legs, and if a spinoff can manage a 3.4x multiple (at the very least), I see no problem for E8 doing the same or better. I think something like $215m OW and $750m total is perfectly doable.

That's still a drop off from TFA, which runs counter to the people saying it'll gross $1bn.

 

Your estimate is very much possible. 

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

We can think of both. Look at the past 10 pages for the mourning. 

 

I wasn't aiming it at everyone. To some here it's the only thing they've had to say. 

 

Each to their own. 

[Lordmandeep]

I was projecting around a 30% drop from TFA for SW8 but with RO overperformance domestically, I have reconsidered.