Tues #s (Asgard pg 136) R1 22.4 Sing 17.7 Pass 6 Moan 4.6 Ass 3.6 WH 3.4 Fen 3.1 LLL 2.6

[alisson23]

34 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

1. BOM = in my POV that counts also for per country 'names'...

* I didn't know when a film expands the theathers in the domestic market, this creates legs to the foreign market...
* When a big event like Christmas affects the box office, it affects all movies. It doesn't matter if it is in 1-3 week or 1-30 week.

Star Wars die-hard fans have some problem... I'll stop arguing, I'm already scared with this creativity.

[Lordmandeep]

At Holiday party R1 has very good wom.

 

Everyone who watched it liked the novelty.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, alisson23 said:

* I didn't know when a film expands the theathers in the domestic market, this creates legs to the foreign market...
* When a big event like Christmas affects the box office, it affects all movies. It doesn't matter if it is in 1-3 week or 1-30 week.

Star Wars die-hard fans have some problem... I'll stop arguing, I'm already scared with this creativity.

 

How about this bit of "creativity". 

 

1. Rogues had $30m in Thur previews ( It did a similar amount O/S pre FSS).   $155m -$30m = $125m 1st FSS which means a bit less than a 49% drop to $64m the FSS 2nd w/e with a deflated Christmas Eve.

 

2. Bigger films tend to have bigger % drops because they've already satisfied larger amounts of upfront demand.

 

3. Film that's are out for weeks when they lose theaters they're mostly losing the ones where it's currently performing the weakest - which is why the theater avg starts to have softer drops than from the start of the run.

 

* Not a Star Wars Die-Hard.  I haven't even watched the movie yet,

 

 

[ldb]

12 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

* I didn't know when a film expands the theathers in the domestic market, this creates legs to the foreign market...
* When a big event like Christmas affects the box office, it affects all movies. It doesn't matter if it is in 1-3 week or 1-30 week.

Star Wars die-hard fans have some problem... I'll stop arguing, I'm already scared with this creativity.

 

I don't understand the point you are making in this entire thread.  Almost everyone predicted a 4 day total between 90-110 million, with the veterans on here predicting a 95-100 million total.  This is exactly what appears to have happened (97 million).  This means that the total domestic cume at the end of Monday will be 317 ish million or so.  By the end of Monday next week, Jan 2, most are predicting somewhere in the low 400 million, say 425 million.  

 

In January, it's gonna blow past $500 million, and then topple Dark Knight's 535 million sometime in February.  

 

It will become the 6th highest grossing film of all time.

 

What is there to quibble about anymore?   

[PPZVGOS]

13 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Frozen also got a re-release, which seems unlikely Moana would have one (so Ride Along, Lone Survivor and Lego Movie where the competition it had during the re-release) and had minimal family competition unlike Moana during the holidays not to mention that HG2 didn't lit the world on fire OS and Anchorman 2, Mr. Banks, and Wolf did decently. Rogue One should do over $500M, Strange and Beasts did about $230M, Trolls did over $150M, and Sing is probably going over $250M. 

 

 

HG2 = 424M DOM/440M OS

DOS = 258M DOM/700M OS

Thor 2 = 206M DOM/438 OS

WOWS = 117M DOM/275 OS

AMHU = 150M DOM/101M OS

LGMO = 257M DOM/211M OS

 

Other films I mention did very well domestically. In any case, I am not denying that Moana has indeed faced some very potent competitors (especially FBAWTFT & Sing, that compete for similar demos) but so did Frozen (a bit more or less, it matters little) My point is not that Moana is not a success, it obviously is (since it has further to go, both in NA and OS) but that it simply cannot compare with the cultural milestone that was Frozen. BTW, I have not seen Moana yet, so I can tell you nothing about how it compares in terms of entertainment value. Just stressing the fact that Frozen was uniquely epic while Moana is just another animated hit. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

 

HG2 = 424M DOM/440M OS

DOS = 258M DOM/700M OS

Thor 2 = 206M DOM/438 OS

WOWS = 117M DOM/275 OS

AMHU = 150M DOM/101M OS

LGMO = 257M DOM/211M OS

 

Other films I mention did very well domestically. In any case, I am not denying that Moana has indeed faced some very potent competitors (especially FBAWTFT & Sing, that compete for similar demos) but so did Frozen (a bit more or less, it matters little) My point is not that Moana is not a success, it obviously is (since it has further to go, both in NA and OS) but that it simply cannot compare with the cultural milestone that was Frozen. BTW, I have not seen Moana yet, so I can tell you nothing about how it compares in terms of entertainment value. Just stressing the fact that Frozen was uniquely epic while Moana is just another animated hit. 

 

There wasn't any animated competition at all for Frozen for over 2 months and none during the lucrative Holiday periods.  There was nothing akin to Trolls let alone Sing. 

 

Of course Frozen was unique, but part if it's success can be attributed to the very wide berth it had for it's demographic in November, December and January.

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

* I didn't know when a film expands the theathers in the domestic market, this creates legs to the foreign market...
* When a big event like Christmas affects the box office, it affects all movies. It doesn't matter if it is in 1-3 week or 1-30 week.

Star Wars die-hard fans have some problem... I'll stop arguing, I'm already scared with this creativity.

I like the film, but I do not love the film. I like and do not like a lot about both trilogies. In this time-phase I arrived at BOT mostly for Doctor Strange (as i have a long-time project in looking into ww of the MCU - and I liked it - again, I do not like all MCU films, I never like all parts of a series), and stayed based on an accident (broken ankle - lots of time)

I love the ww cinemas and the movie business in general, see the text under my avatar. I give likes for posts providing any form of detail, including about films I do not like (see signature) I would speak about this the same way if it would be about a film I really do not like.

 

For OS drops it is important, if the film just got released at the weekend in question (see e.g. UK + Brazil, 2 high earners new will push the OS of the weekend earlier) or is already out the 3rd weekend and will drop based on that in another pattern anyway. If the weekend before the Christmas was e.g. in some regions ... ~a snow storm or... the weekend might even rise, beside being really bad in comparison. Hence the reason why to only look on the ... data the way you presented you wont see the needed details to know how to take the %.

Never said the expansion concerns the OS numbers, you brought OS and dom as examples, I showed that both numbers are ~ twisted, see see expansion at dom (425 to 3448) = if the first wide weekend of Mission Impossible does not twist the drop of that film in relation to the weekend before with only 425 theatres, than I do not know what does. 

 

I start to repeat myself, not sure if it is my English that you so not understand or what else.

 

30 minutes ago, Xavier said:

You are welcome in Greece anytime!

Ευχαριστώ !! I'd love to, but work, family, and time are the reasons i seldom are away nowadays longer than a few days if at all. I think to travel, to see, to learn I need more than a few days. But I dream of making it.  (It would be simpler if not being self employed, see my hubby or working multiple jobs, like me - can be difficult to get them at the same time)

[PPZVGOS]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

There wasn't any animated competition at all for Frozen for over 2 months and none during the lucrative Holiday periods.  There was nothing akin to Trolls let alone Sing. 

 

Of course Frozen was unique, but part if it's success can be attributed to the very wide berth it had for it's demographic in November, December and January.

 

That is correct. There was not any animated competition for Frozen during most of its run. Moana has indeed had to face serious competition from both Beasts and Sing. Trolls was already winding down when Moana hit theaters. 

 

But still, do you honestly believe that Frozen would be less lucrative if it had to face Beasts and Sing? My wager is that its competitors would bear the brunt of damages, Frozen just struck a chord with audiences, something similar to The Lion King. 

 

The astonishing performance that Frozen achieved in Japan was an exaggerated expression of how catchy that movie really was. Also, I will simply remind you of the extraordinary legs displayed by Frozen. It had the kind of performance that only ever occurs with rarity. Moana seems to be legitimately short of something remotely similar. 

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Yeah that's why -- the women are too big for their britches is a turn off  Of course the female empowered and lead Frozen and Zootopia don't count.  No one cared to see Inside Out either.

 

Wreck it Ralph did $281m O/S.  Good Dinosaur $209m.

 

 

 

WTF? What I said has nothing to do with empowerment in general. It looks like animated warrior princess doesn't connect like other types of empowerment. Haven't seen Zootopia but Frozen had sisterly love and romance. Moana and Brave are more of "girl doesn't need romance" type of story that has been pushed hard by twitter feminists. Not saying anything is wrong with that, just that it doesn't connect like "softer" empowerment.

[Jessie]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't believe you.  Why if R1 only grosses 1 dollar on Tuesday, 2 dollars on Wednesday, and 4 dollars on Thursday, it still probably won't be all that much two months from now. 

Starting at 1 dollar with 400% increases per day it would be over 1b after 15 days

 

Do the math?

Edited December 27, 2016 by Jessie

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

R1 jumped roughly 300-400% Sunday to Monday in Australia. Look out if it keeps growing like that. Billion dollars down under here we come. 

that Monday is ~ half of the Thursday to Sunday weekend, or mix I numbers up?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Jessie said:

It would be over 1b

 

Do the math?

 

Click the link.

 

Spoiler

Well over a quadrillion, as it happens. Well well well over it, as a matter of fact. 

 

[YM!]

34 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

 

HG2 = 424M DOM/440M OS

DOS = 258M DOM/700M OS

Thor 2 = 206M DOM/438 OS

WOWS = 117M DOM/275 OS

AMHU = 150M DOM/101M OS

LGMO = 257M DOM/211M OS

 

Other films I mention did very well domestically. In any case, I am not denying that Moana has indeed faced some very potent competitors (especially FBAWTFT & Sing, that compete for similar demos) but so did Frozen (a bit more or less, it matters little) My point is not that Moana is not a success, it obviously is (since it has further to go, both in NA and OS) but that it simply cannot compare with the cultural milestone that was Frozen. BTW, I have not seen Moana yet, so I can tell you nothing about how it compares in terms of entertainment value. Just stressing the fact that Frozen was uniquely epic while Moana is just another animated hit. 

Agreed. I think most of us here overestimated Moana and was just trying to prove in my opinion the main reason why it didn't overperform like Frozen or Zootopia.

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

That is correct. There was not any animated competition for Frozen during most of its run. Moana has indeed had to face serious competition from both Beasts and Sing. Trolls was already winding down when Moana hit theaters. 

 

But still, do you honestly believe that Frozen would be less lucrative if it had to face Beasts and Sing? My wager is that its competitors would bear the brunt of damages, Frozen just struck a chord with audiences, something similar to The Lion King. 

 

The astonishing performance that Frozen achieved in Japan was an exaggerated expression of how catchy that movie really was. Also, I will simply remind you of the extraordinary legs displayed by Frozen. It had the kind of performance that only ever occurs with rarity. Moana seems to be legitimately short of something remotely similar. 

 

A film as big as Sing which will make $220-250m would yes have had an impact - especially on those very leggy legs.  It's biggest performance was the Christmas stretch and competition from another sizable animation film would have dented that.

 

Frozen was big but in terms of tickets sold it in the U.S. it wasn't near the phenomenon of The Lion King (almost 75m tickets not including it's re-releases).  It wasn't as big as Aladdin (52m) or this years Finding Dory.

 

 

 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Jessie said:

Starting at 1 dollar with 400% increases per day it would be over 1b after 15 days

 

Do the math?

 

I'll do the math as soon as you click the link I left in the post of mine you quoted.  

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

WTF? What I said has nothing to do with empowerment in general. It looks like animated warrior princess doesn't connect like other types of empowerment. Haven't seen Zootopia but Frozen had sisterly love and romance. Moana and Brave are more of "girl doesn't need romance" type of story that has been pushed hard by twitter feminists. Not saying anything is wrong with that, just that it doesn't connect like "softer" empowerment.

 

"softer empowerment"  What does that mean?  Being powerful but not too much or you'll scare the men away with your scary women power? 

 

I guess that explains our presidential election. 

 

 

 

Judy Hopps didn't have a male love interest, just a friend/sidekick just like Moana and yet there it was... $1b+  But maybe being a bunny makes her empowerment softer and more acceptable by default.  I wont even get into how Inside Out made $850m+ what with the lead being 12 yrs old and her two main emotions being female.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2016 by TalismanRing

[DeeCee]

16 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

that Monday is ~ half of the Thursday to Sunday weekend, or mix I numbers up?

Yes. Boxing Day Monday was 50% of what it made on the previous Thursday to Sunday. The 5 days probably went roughly like this. 

 

Thursday-$1.5m

Friday-$1.5m

Saturday-$1m

Sunday-$0.5m

Monday-$2.21m

[kitik]

Only 2 people have voted in the Most Anticipated Movies thread so far this week. Looks like the holidays are going to cause a light week, so get on over there and get your top 10 of the next 365 days counted.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films-rogue-one-1/?page=296

[Dementeleus]

I actually do think there may be something about people finding cute animals less threatening than animated people, and also easier to connect with if said animated people are culturally different.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

I actually do think there may be something about people finding cute animals less threatening than animated people, and also easier to connect with if said animated people are culturally different.

 

Tele, but not less threatening than people - less threatening than non soft empowered teenage girls who aren't ready to get married.