WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

[Jonwo]

38 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

Working with water makes your costs shoot up exponentially. Plus Johnny Depp is so integral to the franchise that he can demand an insane amount of money. I think he got paid like $55 million for the last one.

 

Not only that but the likes of Bruckheimer probably are on hefy fees as well.

[filmlover]

Baywatch is gonna make all of the money because I'm an extra in it.

 

BOOM!

[franfar]

The movie is wedged between Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Captain Underpants, so all three will be competing for younger audiences. Wonder Woman comes out the week after, The Mummy the week after that, then Cars 3 afterwards. 

 

It's legs are gonna be bad

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

Not only that but the likes of Bruckheimer probably are on hefy fees as well.

 

Yeah. The whole franchise seems to be a victim of ballooning salaries on top of increased sequel costs. The originals budget is 180M adjusted and then the subsequent films have had more and more CGI along with those crazy figures for the people involved. It's easy to see how they've got to these insane costs. None of them have flopped yet though, so I can see why Disney keeps throwing money at the franchise. Should be interesting to see where POTC5 ends up. I can definitely see it being the last in the franchise.

[Jay Beezy]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Baywatch is gonna make all of the money because I'm an extra in it.

 

BOOM!

 

And in all seriousness, the hyperbole is over the top with the notion of it being offensively bad. Ghostbusters had worse trailers selling more obnoxious humor. Plus audiences are going to want a comedy for the summer. If you have Snatched doing just 25M and Baywatch doing just 70M, what is going to be the comedy hit of the summer? Because the summer comedy landscape looks really bleak after that.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[marveldcfox]

Why is Fox releasing 2 movies on May 19? Alien Covenant and Wimpy Kid? They should move Wimpy Kid to August/September. 

[Jay Beezy]

8 minutes ago, fracfar said:

The movie is wedged between Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Captain Underpants, so all three will be competing for younger audiences. Wonder Woman comes out the week after, The Mummy the week after that, then Cars 3 afterwards. 

 

It's legs are gonna be bad

 

Plus, who knows what legs Guardians of the Galaxy will surmise?

[WrathOfHan]

June 2:

Captain Underpants: I thought Wimpy Kid was too outdated to revive and Boss Baby would become one of DreamWorks’s lowest grossing films, but Captain Underpants had to come along. If this movie came out 10 years ago, it might have done decently, but it’s waaaaaaaaaaaaay too late to be making this movie. DreamWorks should be thankful for Universal’s buyout and Shrek 5 on the horizon. They need it. 20/60 (3x)

 

Wonder Woman: BEWE A DUN DUN DUN DA-DUN DUN DUN DA-DUN DUN DUN DE DEEEEEEEEEEEEEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is the first female superhero movie and Wonder Woman’s second appearance on the big screen after BVS. Wonder Woman is such an iconic staple of American fiction, and this movie is going to have massive buzz. WB knows how to market their tentpoles, and DC has a built-in fanbase that supports a lot of things they make. Combine in the trailer views, and this movie has a decent chance at grossing 300M. However, the future of the DC Cinematic Universe is riding on this film. MOS had a mixed response, and BVS and SS got awful reviews. I don’t care what you think of those movies, but the general consensus is very murky. If Wonder Woman has reception in line with BVS or SS, the DCEU might as well start calling it quits. An apocalypse (doomsday?) level scenario would result in a terrible multiplier and likely make Justice League gross less. I’m going to stay optimistic and hope for a good film. 130/325 (2.5x)

[Alli]

I like the WO prediction ?

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

Yeah. The whole franchise seems to be a victim of ballooning salaries on top of increased sequel costs. The originals budget is 180M adjusted and then the subsequent films have had more and more CGI along with those crazy figures for the people involved. It's easy to see how they've got to these insane costs. None of them have flopped yet though, so I can see why Disney keeps throwing money at the franchise. Should be interesting to see where POTC5 ends up. I can definitely see it being the last in the franchise.

 

The first film's budget was on par if not a tad lower than the average blockbuster at the time. Even Michael Eisner was concerned about the budget only for Bruckheimer to point out that the competition was spending the same if not more. It was a hugely risky project for Disney which paid off handsomely as everyone at the time wrote it off

[franfar]

Just now, Jay Beezy said:

 

Plus, who knows what legs Guardians of the Galaxy will surmise?

If TMNT hadn't come out in 2014, then GOTG would have been #1 for 6 weeks in a row. August was that barren, and it looks fairly uncompetitive now. Plus, there's gonna be a shitton of hype and goodwill from the original. Pratt is also a bit more prominent, so he can help. 

 

I think GOTG will do 125/406 (3.25x)

[YM!]

Love the Wonder Woman Prediction. I think Underpants could surprise though. Trolls looked awful and did $150M and against Strange.

Edited January 2, 2017 by YourMother

[Jay Beezy]

7 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Why is Fox releasing 2 movies on May 19? Alien Covenant and Wimpy Kid? They should move Wimpy Kid to August/September. 

 

Things were a lot simpler when Alien Covenant kept the Suicide Squad weekend date.

[Jonwo]

Just now, YourMother said:

Love the Wonder Woman Prediction.

 

It's on par with what I'm thinking as well although I wouldn't be surprised if it does open lower say $120-125m but with the same total of $325m. 

[franfar]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 2:

 

 

Captain Underpants: I thought Wimpy Kid was too outdated to revive and Boss Baby would become one of DreamWorks’s lowest grossing films, but Captain Underpants had to come along. If this movie came out 10 years ago, it might have done decently, but it’s waaaaaaaaaaaaay too late to be making this movie. DreamWorks should be thankful for Universal’s buyout and Shrek 5 on the horizon. They need it. 20/60 (3x)

 

 

 

 

 

Wonder Woman: BEWE A DUN DUN DUN DA-DUN DUN DUN DA-DUN DUN DUN DE DEEEEEEEEEEEEEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is the first female superhero movie and Wonder Woman’s second appearance on the big screen after BVS. Wonder Woman is such an iconic staple of American fiction, and this movie is going to have massive buzz. WB knows how to market their tentpoles, and DC has a built-in fanbase that supports a lot of things they make. Combine in the trailer views, and this movie has a decent chance at grossing 300M. However, the future of the DC Cinematic Universe is riding on this film. MOS had a mixed response, and BVS and SS got awful reviews. I don’t care what you think of those movies, but the general consensus is very murky. If Wonder Woman has reception in line with BVS or SS, the DCEU might as well start calling it quits. An apocalypse (doomsday?) level scenario would result in a terrible multiplier and likely make Justice League gross less. I’m going to stay optimistic and hope for a good film. 130/325 (2.5x)

 

 

I think the WW prediction is pretty spot on with good reviews

[YM!]

Just now, fracfar said:

I think the WW prediction is pretty spot on with good reviews

I still think even if the reviews are trash, WW would still make over $300M because it's the first female superhero movie in the new age of CBMs.

[filmlover]

If Wonder Woman and Justice League are as badly-received as (or, god help us all, worse than) Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad were, the Divergent-style implosion is coming for the next DC-related film.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If Wonder Woman and Justice League are as badly-received as (or, god help us all, worse than) Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad were, the Divergent-style implosion is coming for the next DC-related film.

Bring. it. on. I'm ready.

[Alli]

I think WO will be just average and critica will not trash it

[Jay Beezy]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

 

The first film's budget was on par if not a tad lower than the average blockbuster at the time. Even Michael Eisner was concerned about the budget only for Bruckheimer to point out that the competition was spending the same if not more. It was a hugely risky project for Disney which paid off handsomely as everyone at the time wrote it off

 

Strange that the budget for POTC5 is higher than DMC yet it has weaker effects for its villain.