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WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

By WrathOfHan, in Box Office Discussion

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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October 20:

Geostorm: This movie has been in post-production hell for so long. The movie is going to bomb hard. 5/10 (2x)

 

Insidious: Chapter 4: Insidious 3 was a moderate success for Universal, but Chapter 3 suffered a hefty drop from the second. The fourth installment continues the trend of singular stories with Lin Shaye. I don’t know if audiences will flock to this with the crowded market and Cloverfield and the Saw revival releasing the following week. The Insidious franchise is fading away, and I expect that to continue here. 15/40 (2.67x)

The Mountain Between Us: Wow, I didn’t know The Space Between Us is getting a sequel in the same year! This film actually shows some promise. It stars Idris Elba and Kate Winslet and is directed by two-time Academy Award nominated director Hany Abu-Assad in his first American film. I think the movie should move to early December to take advantage of a dry spell and to be fresher in voters’ minds if it is a contender. As is, this should do decently. 10/50 (5x)

 

The War with Grandpa: Robert De Niro and a kid are fighting over a bed room, and Christopher Walken is in the mix too. Hmm. It’s too soon to tell how this will do. 10/30 (3x)

 

October 27:

Cloverfield 3/God Particle: 10 Cloverfield Lane literally came out of nowhere. It was announced not even two months before release and was a great movie with a debatable ending. The film had some excellent legs and has revived interest in future Cloverfield movies. The goodwill from 10CL will easily carry this to a 30M+ OW, but legs are another matter. Thor comes out the following week and will take a good chunk of the audience, and Justice League will be out in its fourth week. The crawl to 100M might be too slow to happen. 35/90 (2.57x)

 

Saw: Let’s play a game called Lionsgate. In this game, you are a member of the general audience, and in it, you have to evade Lionsgate’s shitty attempts at making money and discern their good stuff from their bad. You will likely succeed at the game, but many others won’t. It’s been long enough since the last Saw that I can see some audiences falling for this film, but as Blair Witch proved a few months ago, don’t bank on nostalgia. 20/50 (2.5x)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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November 3:

A Bad Moms Christmas: STX sure knows how to capitalize on a smash hit with this and Bad Dads. Unlike Bad Dads, I think this will be a notable success. Bad Moms is generally well-received and was good counterprogramming to Jason Bourne. Similar to the first, this is coming out against a tentpole blockbuster, but Bad Moms could also be considered a tentpole this time around. This is releasing 15 months after the first, so Bad Moms will still be fresh in audiences’ minds, and the movie will have strong legs throughout the holiday season. Don’t be surprised if this gets close to 200M. 50/175 (3.5x)

 

Thor: Ragnarok: When Marvel finally gets us excited about a Thor movie, you know they’re doing something right. Ragnarok is going to offer a nice break from the first two films and will be a vital part of the MCU. Hulk and Doctor Strange’s presence will help draw in more casual moviegoers, but what will really make this explode at the box office is its connection to Infinity War. Hela is rumored to play a major role in IW, and the final Infinity Stone will more than likely be revealed in this movie. There’s a strong chance audiences need to know what happens in this movie to understand IW. For that reason, I expect this to perform massively. 150/375 (2.5x)

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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2 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

It's called having FAITH in the TAIKA.

 

I BELIEVE.

 

Im still nervous that his direction is going to be subdued by the Feige.  But then again Guardians of the Galaxy, Iron Man and the Avengers all managed to have a bit of flair to them, so maybe he can do it for Thor.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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While I don't see $150M+ opening for Rangarok possible nor over $350M. It could surprise us, right now I have it a $120M-$125M with a finish around $270M, but it could reach over $300M.

 

In a way it's like a mini Avengers, it has Thor, Hulk, and Strange. Hela could be a extraordinary villain, and some good actors might bring more people in. If Surtur and Fenris Wolf is in it and marketed this could be that big.

August, September, and October look barren with only a few films with potential of $150M DOM (Ninjago, Blade Runner/Kingsman 2) could translate for a big opening just like Strange broke out last year.

While I don't see JL under $300M (current prediction is $350M), if it gets negative reviews it could belong Thor some.

Its only family competition is The Star (could either do $75M+ or $150M+) and Coco.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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November 10:

Red Sparrow: Passengers is going fairly high with bad reviews and mixed reception, so JLaw should be able to lead this film to Joy numbers at the very least. The real test will be its legs. 20/80 (4x)

 

The Star: This is an interesting concept for a kids film. I think Sony should have kept this in December as it was closer to Christmas, but I think this will be an appealing option for families throughout the holiday season. Of course, it could also collapse once Coco releases similar to Trolls and Moana. 25/100 (4x)

 

November 17:

Justice League: I feel like people are vastly overestimating this film’s box office potential. I know we’re all hoping this is better than DC’s previous films, but just because this is the Justice League doesn’t mean it’s going to increase from BVS; the trinity was already in BVS, so it’s not as if this is something we’ve NEVER seen before. Another factor is going to be how well Wonder Woman performs. If that has bad reception, Justice League is going to lose a lot of hype. I’ll remain optimistic for now, but this movie is a real wildcard. 120/300 (2.5x)

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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22 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

October 13:

 

 

The Commuter: Here’s a Liam Neeson action flick that sounds great. This is directed by Jaume Collet-Serra, who’s had his share of hits, and features great supporting players such as Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson (Conjuring reunion!), Jonathan Banks, and more. This will have some competition from Kingsman, but older audiences should flock to this. 30/120 (4x)

 

 

 

 

 

The Snowman: Maybe this can be the film that proves Michael Fassbender can draw in audiences. It’s hard to say if it’ll get overshadowed by the competition. Martin Scorsese was originally attached to direct this film, so that should hopefully be an indicator of its quality (or not). 20/60 (3x)

 

 

 

What about Friday the 13th, did it move?

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