2017 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Pitchslapped!)

[forg]

Ninjago is no longer guaranteed for 100M

[Krissykins]

On 14/09/2017 at 9:37 AM, zackzack said:

 

Baywatch has a great cast but the bloody luridness, the gratuitous extreme nudity and the extreme gross out jokes are not there in the original TV series.

Audience just tuned out. But Jumanji looks to be the typical big family movie GA is expecting during the Holidays

 

 

 

Baywatch didn’t even deliver on its R rating promises. 

 

Tame and unfunny. Still one of the most disappointing of the year for me. BO wise but especially quality wise. 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

If Ninjago opens in the low 20's range, bye bye 100M chances.

 

But at least Annabelle: Creation has officially made it, so there's that. Kingsman and Blade Runner are probably next (unless American Made breaks out big time, and I'm not seeing the buzz for that).

[WrathOfHan]

In a scenario where Kingsman and Blade Runner miss:

 

22. Thor

23. Orient Express

24. Justice League

25. Coco

26. The Shape of Water

27. Star Wars

28. Pitch Perfect

29. Jumanji

30. The Papers

 

Even with those two, we'd still need two more to beat the record. Daddy's Home probably comes the closest, but I'm struggling to figure out another film. If Kingsman and/or Blade Runner miss, the record isn't going down this year.

[the beast]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

In a scenario where Kingsman and Blade Runner miss:

 

22. Thor

23. Orient Express

24. Justice League

25. Coco

26. The Shape of Water

27. Star Wars

28. Pitch Perfect

29. Jumanji

30. The Papers

 

Even with those two, we'd still need two more to beat the record. Daddy's Home probably comes the closest, but I'm struggling to figure out another film. If Kingsman and/or Blade Runner miss, the record isn't going down this year.

Kingsman only needs a 2.5x with that 40m opening so it probably will but not by much

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

In a scenario where Kingsman and Blade Runner miss:

 

22. Thor

23. Orient Express

24. Justice League

25. Coco

26. The Shape of Water

27. Star Wars

28. Pitch Perfect

29. Jumanji

30. The Papers

 

Even with those two, we'd still need two more to beat the record. Daddy's Home probably comes the closest, but I'm struggling to figure out another film. If Kingsman and/or Blade Runner miss, the record isn't going down this year.

 

Bad Moms Christmas could hit the mark

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Bad Moms Christmas could hit the mark

I was predicting that for a while, but buzz seems very muted for it. There's a chance it can't maintain screens over Thanksgiving too. We'll see how it's tracking closer to release.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I was predicting that for a while, but buzz seems very muted for it. There's a chance it can't maintain screens over Thanksgiving too. We'll see how it's tracking closer to release.

Maybe Ferdinand.

[Jay Beezy]

9 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Baywatch didn’t even deliver on its R rating promises. 

 

Tame and unfunny. Still one of the most disappointing of the year for me. BO wise but especially quality wise. 

 

Plus it didn't even focus on what was popular about the show.

[Maxmoser3]

Kingsman won't be in the list anymore 

[Blankments]

500M

1. Beauty and the Beast - May 28

400M

1. Beauty and the Beast – April 4
2. Wonder Woman - August 8

300M

1. Beauty and the Beast – March 26
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - May 21
3. Wonder Woman - June 23
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming - August 10

200M

1. Beauty and the Beast – March 21
2. Logan – March 26
3. The Fate of the Furious - May 5
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - May 13
5. Wonder Woman - June 11
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming - July 16
7. Despicable Me 3 - July 20
8. It - September 16

100M

1. Split - February 7
2. The LEGO Batman Movie - February 20
3. Fifty Shades Darker – February 25
4. Logan – March 7
5. Get Out – March 11
6. Beauty and the Beast – March 18
7. Kong: Skull Island – March 18
8. The Boss Baby – April 13
9. The Fate of the Furious - April 17
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - May 6
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - June 3
12. Wonder Woman - June 4
13. Cars 3 - June 26
14. Transformers: The Last Knight - July 2
15. Despicable Me 3 - July 5
16. Spider-Man: Homecoming - July 9
17. War for the Planet of the Apes - July 24
18. Dunkirk - July 30
19. Baby Driver - August 13
20. Girls Trip - August 17
21. It - September 10
22. Annabelle: Creation - September 19

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Bold for lock, normal for likely, italics for maybe

 

Kingsman

Blade Runner

Bad Moms Christmas

Thor: Ragnarok

Daddy's Home 2

Murder on the Orient Express

Justice League

Coco

The Shape of Water

Ferdinand

Stair Wares

Jumanji

Pitch Perfect

The Post/Papers/whatever the fuck it's called

 

This will really come down to the wire.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Nobody is expecting that Happy Death Day can surpass the $100m mark, just like nobody expected that Split, Get Out, Annabelle and IT (before the trailer) could cross the mark. But I have a good feeling about this movie, if it gets good reviews, it may have a shot, Horror is on fire this year, and it is going to be the first choice among teens during Halloween.

[MCKillswitch123]

So, this is close to dead, right? Kingsman has a 2/10 shot to make it there. It depends on how bad Blade Runner kills it next week, and I don't see anything below a 50% drop. Ninjago's shot was dead on OD, too.

 

So with that, we're left with these locks:

- Blade Runner 2049

- Thor: Ragnarok

- Justice League

- Coco

- Star Wars: The Last Jedi

- Pitch Perfect 3

 

And these possibilities:

- A Bad Moms Christmas (ehhh, I don't know about that)

- Daddy's Home 2 (might have more of a shot than expected)

- Murder On The Orient Express (I hope it's 2017's Arrival)

- The Shape Of Water (might be the big mainstream Oscar player alongside The Post)

- Ferdinand (last big animated movie of the year, and it doesn't look too bad, I guess)

- Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle (still not convinced this is a lock)

- The Post (closest to a lock out of these imo)

 

That's 13 right there, which would be enough to break the record... that is, if all of them make it. Best case scenario is if all of them make it AND something else breaks out (or hell, if Kingsman gets fudged to 100M). I wouldn't put The Greatest Showman aside for that (Hugh Jackman and musicals). Also rooting for The Disaster Artist (seriously doubt that makes it, though). And fuck it, who knows, even Happy Death Day might have a small shot.

Edited October 2, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Well, with Blade Runner's disappointing OW, and the unlikeliness of it garnering sexy Gosling legs, this is pretty much dead. Thor, Justice League, Coco, Star Wars, Jumanji and Pitch Perfect are locks, and stuff like Orient Express, The Post, Daddy's Home and Ferdinand have a decent shot (even Happy Death Day or The Greatest Showman could be dark horses), but I don't see a scenario where the record is broken. Better luck next year I guess.

[That One Girl]

Blade Runner needs a 2.73x, which isn't a lock but it's possible

[The Panda]

Highly Likely

 Thor: Ragnorak

Justice League

Coco

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Jumanji

Pitch Perfect 3

 

Possible

Kingsman

Blade Runner 2049

A Bad Mom's Christmas 

Daddy's Home 2

Darkest Hour

Ferdinand

The Papers

The Shape of Water

 

Off-Chance

Tyler Perry's Boo 2!

Happy Death Day

Thank You For Your Service/Only the Brave

Murder on the Orient Express

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Lady Bird

Wonder

The Star

The Disaster Artist

Father Figures

The Greatest Showman

 

We need 7 from the possible or off-chance movies for the record.  Not impossible at all, but could easily fall short.

[Maxmoser3]

Blade Runner most likely does Elysium numbers if lucky. If it matched Arrival's total that would be okayish. But next it's tough to tell, maybe not until November would we see the next film make $100 million.

[saintxav]

Not to be negative but why is everyone so sure Jumanji and Pitch Perfect will reach the goal? I could see Pitch Perfect (even though I don't think it's as hot as it used to be) having a slim shot but I don't see it at all with Jumanji.

Edited October 8, 2017 by saintxav

[Maxmoser3]

5 hours ago, saintxav said:

Not to be negative but why is everyone so sure Jumanji and Pitch Perfect will reach the goal? I could see Pitch Perfect having a slim shot but I don't see it at all with Jumanji.

Pitch Perfect is a sucessful franchise, coming off a sucessful predecessor, and is the main comedy against Star Wars that could be sucessful counter-programmer with females, and people not interested with Star Wars. Jumanji I don't think will $100 million, coming from that Shitty trailer, but dollar theaters would help it.