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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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4 hours ago, The Panda said:

Does anyone else think Darkest Hour will disappoint?  With the new system and members, movies with lots of love seem to do better than the more generic Oscar bait.

 

The reviews seem to only praise Oldman, which will be good enough for a nomination and maybe a win from him, but I don't see the love for it in any other cat.

I actually don't think The Darkest Hour has that big of a shot either. Reviews are good, but they're hardly best of the year ecstatic. Even Oldman is getting criticized by some for delivering a "pure Oscar bait performance!" I'd hope that the academy would done with ultra Oscar bait anyway. 

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5 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

If Inside Out couldn't get in, Coco sure as hell ain't

Animations contend in BP race will indirectly kill the competition in Best animated feature category,

 

In 2010, toy story 3 , how to train your dragon and The illusionist were nominated in best animated feature but only TS3 get its nomination in BP, the inclusion of TS3 in BP meaning that it is the best among 3 nominees, since only TS3 got "extra" nomination and got to "represent" animation in BP race, it would be an internal inconsistency if an animation nominated for BP didnt win Best animated feature 

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13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

, it would be an internal inconsistency if an animation nominated for BP didnt win Best animated feature 

At least it is very common to have 2 or more entry nominated in Best Animated Movie that were unseen by the group of voters when they voted to nominate best pictures, so they would not really contradict themselves if one of those win.

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4 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

I actually don't think The Darkest Hour has that big of a shot either. Reviews are good, but they're hardly best of the year ecstatic. Even Oldman is getting criticized by some for delivering a "pure Oscar bait performance!" I'd hope that the academy would done with ultra Oscar bait anyway. 

 

I don't really like that logic that the 'academy should be done with ultra Oscar bait'. If The Darkest Hour is a good film, let it stand as a good film, and if it deserves to contend for awards (and it's well received enough as to where you can't really say it doesn't), then it should contend for awards. Films should not be immediately thrown out of the conversations as if they are worthless just because their topics, themes, and settings are friendly with Oscar academies of the past. Are Oscar bait films annoying? Sure. Are there standout 'Oscar bait' films that absolutely deserve their awards? Absolutely.

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15 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

I don't really like that logic that the 'academy should be done with ultra Oscar bait'. If The Darkest Hour is a good film, let it stand as a good film, and if it deserves to contend for awards (and it's well received enough as to where you can't really say it doesn't), then it should contend for awards. Films should not be immediately thrown out of the conversations as if they are worthless just because their topics, themes, and settings are friendly with Oscar academies of the past. Are Oscar bait films annoying? Sure. Are there standout 'Oscar bait' films that absolutely deserve their awards? Absolutely.

Oh I understand that completely. There are some "Oscar bait" films that I enjoy I just think there should at least be an attempt to diverse the types of films that should be nominated, heck The Darkest Hour looks fine. I suppose it comes down to the academy's own preference and what they think it is the best of the year though, as is always the case. 

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37 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

I don't really like that logic that the 'academy should be done with ultra Oscar bait'. If The Darkest Hour is a good film, let it stand as a good film, and if it deserves to contend for awards (and it's well received enough as to where you can't really say it doesn't), then it should contend for awards. Films should not be immediately thrown out of the conversations as if they are worthless just because their topics, themes, and settings are friendly with Oscar academies of the past. Are Oscar bait films annoying? Sure. Are there standout 'Oscar bait' films that absolutely deserve their awards? Absolutely.

The problem with Oscar Bait movies is when films universally seen as mediocre or merely decent outside of the academy get heavy nominations.  So things like Darkest Hour, Extremely Loud, Theory of Everything, Blind Side, American Sniper etc.

 

Movies that lacked love but got in for various other 'bait' reasons.

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2 minutes ago, The Panda said:

The problem with Oscar Bait movies is when films universally seen as mediocre or merely decent outside of the academy get heavy nominations.  So things like Darkest Hour, Extremely Loud, Theory of Everything, Blind Side, American Sniper etc.

 

Movies that lacked love but got in for various other 'bait' reasons.

There some movie with A+ cinemascore on that list (American Sniper, Blind Side 2 of the most loved movie of the 2000's, definitely highly loved outside the Academy) considering how few live action movie achieved that mark over the year's.

 

Some of those got in for the same reason they were so beloved by older audience, it was favorite academy member movies also, taste between older audience and academy member is not that different usually.

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With its ridiculous reviews I think Paddington 2 may get the lions share of "family movie" attention if it's submitted to the Academy. Perhaps Coco's sociopolitical timeliness and later release could give it enough of a boost to get the attention Inside Out didn't, but I highly doubt it.

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1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

With its ridiculous reviews I think Paddington 2 may get the lions share of "family movie" attention if it's submitted to the Academy. Perhaps Coco's sociopolitical timeliness and later release could give it enough of a boost to get the attention Inside Out didn't, but I highly doubt it.

Paddington is technically a 2018 release, they could always give it a limited 2017 release in a few theaters at Christmas or something. 

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6 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

I actually don't think The Darkest Hour has that big of a shot either. Reviews are good, but they're hardly best of the year ecstatic. Even Oldman is getting criticized by some for delivering a "pure Oscar bait performance!" I'd hope that the academy would done with ultra Oscar bait anyway. 

They just nominated Hacksaw Ridge for a bunch of stuff last year even though it also wasn't that critically-acclaimed and despite having a director who was long considered a Hollywood pariah up until that point. Let's not forget The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything both got major recognition three years ago. Movies like this are definitely the cup of tea for a section of Academy voters.

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8 hours ago, filmlover said:

They just nominated Hacksaw Ridge for a bunch of stuff last year even though it also wasn't that critically-acclaimed and despite having a director who was long considered a Hollywood pariah up until that point. Let's not forget The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything both got major recognition three years ago. Movies like this are definitely the cup of tea for a section of Academy voters.

I kinda wish they weren't, even though I did enjoy The Imitation Game. Ha!

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I think unless it's completely ignored at the box office, Darkest Hour should still be good for a Best Picture nomination, even if it's in the lower ranks. Oldman is still very much the frontrunner and the last person to win Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee was Jeff Bridges 8 years ago.

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8 hours ago, filmlover said:

They just nominated Hacksaw Ridge for a bunch of stuff last year even though it also wasn't that critically-acclaimed and despite having a director who was long considered a Hollywood pariah up until that point. Let's not forget The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything both got major recognition three years ago. Movies like this are definitely the cup of tea for a section of Academy voters.

Hacksaw was a surprise sleeper hit, Darkest Hour doesn't appear to be doing that great.  Imitation Game had much better reviews.  Not to mention they're widening the demographics.

 

Theory of Everything is the best comp.  Not saying it won't get any noms, but I think it's bait the academy may end up seeing through.

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think unless it's completely ignored at the box office, Darkest Hour should still be good for a Best Picture nomination, even if it's in the lower ranks. Oldman is still very much the frontrunner and the last person to win Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee was Jeff Bridges 8 years ago.

One thing about oscar especially since the expansion of BP is, the BP nominees are largely dominating across the board even for technical categories

last best actor winner with their film was not BP nom: Jeff in crazy heart in 2010

last best actress winner with their film was not BP nom: Julianne moore in still alice in 2015

last best supporting actor winner: plummers in beginner in 2012

supporting actress: alica in danish girl in 2016

ori screenplay: eternal sunshile in 2005

adapted: cant find!

directing: can't find!! 

editing: the girl with the dragon tatoo in 2011

cinematography: pan's labyrinth in 2007

art direction:the great gatsby in 2014

original score: hateful 8 in 2016

original song: spectre in 2016

sound editing: skyfall co-winner in 2013 but zero dark 30 was an BP nominee, TDK the next in 2009

sound mixing: The Bourne in 2008

visual effect: jungle book this year

make up: Suicide Squad this year

costume design: FB this year

 

this scenario is even significant when you look at the nomination, for example in 89th oscar

4/5 best actor are in BP nom

1/5 best actress are in BP nom

4/5 best sup act are in BP nom

5/5 best sup act are in BP nom

4/5 best cinematography are in BP nom

the list goes on and on....

making me wonder those nominees, were they really good in their respective field or they are just lucky of being part of the great movie? 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

One thing about oscar especially since the expansion of BP is, the BP nominees are largely dominating across the board even for technical categories

last best actor winner with their film was not BP nom: Jeff in crazy heart in 2010

last best actress winner with their film was not BP nom: Julianne moore in still alice in 2015

last best supporting actor winner: plummers in beginner in 2012

supporting actress: alica in danish girl in 2016

ori screenplay: eternal sunshile in 2005

adapted: cant find!

directing: can't find!! 

editing: the girl with the dragon tatoo in 2011

cinematography: pan's labyrinth in 2007

art direction:the great gatsby in 2014

original score: hateful 8 in 2016

original song: spectre in 2016

sound editing: skyfall co-winner in 2013 but zero dark 30 was an BP nominee, TDK the next in 2009

sound mixing: The Bourne in 2008

visual effect: jungle book this year

make up: Suicide Squad this year

costume design: FB this year

 

this scenario is even significant when you look at the nomination, for example in 89th oscar

4/5 best actor are in BP nom

1/5 best actress are in BP nom

4/5 best sup act are in BP nom

5/5 best sup act are in BP nom

4/5 best cinematography are in BP nom

the list goes on and on....

making me wonder those nominees, were they really good in their respective field or they are just lucky of being part of the great movie? 

 

 

 

 

So the bigger the category gets, the more rare it gets for a film without a BP nomination to win.

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