Best Picture predictions-2017!

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

It might or might not be dying, I'd be for it not getting nominated for BP leaving room for something refreshing. But you're adding Wonder in which has a significantly lower MTC score than even Darkest Hour, its kind of odd then to mention that Darkest hour is the worst-received contender. Plus, Darkest hour actually has the advantage of a likely best actor win and Wonder has nothing like that.

lol whoops. In my defense, Wonder is higher on RT than Darkest Hour  

[NCsoft]

3 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Wonder making it. I know it's getting comparisons to The Blind Side in terms of its impact with audiences, but as far as Oscars go, it's worth remembering that The Blind Side had the Best Actress winner and was an inspirational sports movie - a subgenre that occasionally breaks through in a big way with voters. Wonder seems like a bigger longshot than Blind Side ever did.

Also worth noting that The Blind Side got nominated for BP in a relatively weak year with 10 guaranteed BP nominees. Films like The Blind Side, a serious man and District 9 are lucky to be in that year, even Up is not likely get nominated in today's system.

[Jake Gittes]

5 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Also worth noting that The Blind Side got nominated for BP in a relatively weak year with 10 guaranteed BP nominees. Films like The Blind Side, a serious man and District 9 are lucky to be in that year, even Up is not likely get nominated in today's system.

Still wish they'd go back to that system. Yeah you might get a Blind Side among your nominees but it's worth it for A Serious Man, Up, Toy Story 3, District 9, Winter's Bone type nods. 

[filmlover]

The Blind Side was a freak occurrence that only comes around once every now and then. Only other movies I can think of where the box office and box office alone truly propelled them into the awards conversation were Ghost and The Sixth Sense (movies like The Help, Hidden Figures, etc. all had the hallmarks of "traditional" Oscar bait, unlike any of those three). Wonder is unlikely to go the distance (especially when the voting method has changed) but it should gain attention in some areas. Maybe a Golden Globe nomination for Julia (if they nominated her for an early year forgotten flop like Duplicity, of all things...).

[WrathOfHan]

The first Post screening happened last night, and although it's embargoed, there is some stuff getting through the cracks with various pundits' predictions:

 

It's very good and in the vein of Lincoln and Bridge of Spies (no surprise)

Streep is going to contend for the win

Hanks is basically a fringe contender like we've been predicting

Bob Odenkirk has been getting a few notices and could sneak into supporting

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

The first Post screening happened last night, and although it's embargoed, there is some stuff getting through the cracks with various pundits' predictions:

 

It's very good and in the vein of Lincoln and Bridge of Spies (no surprise)

Streep is going to contend for the win

Hanks is basically a fringe contender like we've been predicting

Bob Odenkirk has been getting a few notices and could sneak into supporting

I fully expect the box office to land right in the middle between Lincoln ($182M) and Bridge of Spies ($72M), which would be $127M.

[Cmasterclay]

Yea prob gonna move that back into my predictions, saw same reacts. Hanks could sneak in just because of how bare the category is. I'll go Get Out, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Three Billboards, Shape of Water, The Post, Mudbound, Call Me By Your Name and Darkest Hour, but I'm wavering on Darkest Hour (thank fuck) and Mudbound I know I'm out on a limb on. Could easily see I Tonya right there, or Florida Project, or Blade Runner, or even Phantom Thread which screens this weekend and might be better than we expect.

Edited November 20, 2017 by Cmasterclay

[CoolioD1]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

 or even Phantom Thread which screens this weekend and might be better than we expect.

what's this we shit i've basically had a spot reserved for it in my own personal top 5 of the year since i saw the trailer.

[filmlover]

I still have Darkest Hour in my predictions, but it's definitely in last. I mean, they just nominated Hacksaw Ridge for a bunch of stuff last year and that movie couldn't have had "prime Oscar bait" written all over it any more if it tried. There's definitely a section of the Academy that takes to movies such as this.

Edited November 21, 2017 by filmlover

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Get out

Three Billboards 

The Post

The Shape of Water

Lady Bird

I, Tonya

phantom Thread 

Call me by Your Name

Mudbond 

 

[WrathOfHan]

I feel like Focus is shifting their attention to Phantom Thread, which is why I swapped DH with it in a few categories. I almost put it in cinematography too but don't know how the branch feels about PTA doing it.

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I feel like Focus is shifting their attention to Phantom Thread, which is why I swapped DH with it in a few categories. I almost put it in cinematography too but don't know how the branch feels about PTA doing it.

The movie isn't even gonna have a cinematography credit according to pta so like... probably not.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

The movie isn't even gonna have a cinematography credit according to pta so like... probably not.

Very well then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

mother! rises  

[Cmasterclay]

DH? Daddy's Home? Mel gunning for another nom bay bay

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

DH? Daddy's Home? Mel gunning for another nom bay bay

DH3: Starring Gary Oldman as Mel Gibson's father!

[That One Girl]

Daddy’s Home, Darkest Hour, or Deathly Hallows?

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I feel like Focus is shifting their attention to Phantom Thread, which is why I swapped DH with it in a few categories. I almost put it in cinematography too but don't know how the branch feels about PTA doing it.

Darkest Hour's numbers this weekend will be telling. FWIW, Call Me by Your Name is really kicking its ass at Hollywood Arclight (although it has a following from the book and has had almost a year's worth of hype since it first screened back at Sundance, plus Darkest Hour is likely to skew much older for the most part, so it's not that surprising).

[Safeno Rdz]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Blind Side was a freak occurrence that only comes around once every now and then. Only other movies I can think of where the box office and box office alone truly propelled them into the awards conversation were Ghost and The Sixth Sense (movies like The Help, Hidden Figures, etc. all had the hallmarks of "traditional" Oscar bait, unlike any of those three). Wonder is unlikely to go the distance (especially when the voting method has changed) but it should gain attention in some areas. Maybe a Golden Globe nomination for Julia (if they nominated her for an early year forgotten flop like Duplicity, of all things...).

Avatar also got a BP nominations thanks to it's BO, and probably Get out too, as it's also not a "traditional" Oscar bait as well

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Avatar also got a BP nominations thanks to it's BO, and probably Get out too, as it's also not a "traditional" Oscar bait as well

 

When Get Out gets an Oscar nom, it definitely won’t be because of its box office

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Avatar also got a BP nominations thanks to it's BO

It was also the follow-up to the then biggest film of all time (which also won a ton of top Oscars, including Best Picture). That alone always put Avatar in the Oscar race so no.