CoolioD1 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 yeah, the critics won't give detroit awards in favour of newer, shinier movies and it's being stoned to death by thinkpieces. i don't think it'll stick around for awards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I'm getting some Steve Jobs vibes from Detroit. On paper, it feels exactly like something the Academy would go for, but bad box office returns kill the buzz. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I just said this in the tracking the thread but Detroit really feels like another Fruitvale Station, another critically acclaimed summer release with early awards buzz that also a very punishing experiences to watch, and ultimately fell out of the awards race for stronger, later contenders. Box office is already likely to be low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 I'm going to be really mad if Detroit misses. I can't see it dropping from my personal Top 5. Hopefully Annapurna can keep it in the conversation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Detroit officially claims the title as the first real casualty of awards season. It'll be more quickly forgotten than Birth of a Nation was last year. I'm slowly starting to buy into the Get Out hype. It's certainly shaping to be an another unorthodox year for contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 People are dropping Detroit fast, but let's take a moment and look at the playing field: Locked: 1. The Papers: Spielberg+Streep+Hanks+Journalism=Win? 2. Dunkirk: Great box office and reviews, a big tech player, and Nolan is the Director frontunner 3. Call Me by Your Name: Great reviews, a potential acting winner, and the likely Adapted Screenplay winner Likely: 4. The Shape of Water: Probably Searchlight's main push, Del Toro is liked, probably a big tech player Probable: 5. mother!: Aronofsky is liked and the film has an amazing cast, but is it going to be too inaccessible for the Academy? 6. Get Out: It has the buzz, box office, and reception, but is it even going to get another nomination outside of Screenplay? 7. Last Flag Flying: This is one I'll likely move up in the future. It's probably Amazon's main push with several acting contenders. Test screening word is very good, so I wouldn't bet against this Fringe nominees: 8. Detroit: Obviously the box office is a fucking disaster, but this is an important film. If Annapurna can keep this in the conversation and none of the other fringe nominees become likelier, I think it's in. 9. Wonder Wheel: Woody Allen is very hit or miss. Even if this is very good, let's not forget Blue Jasmine had 3 nominations and still missed. 10. Darkest Hour: Oldman and probably a few techs will be nominated, but is it even going anywhere else? Last year sort of lacked the middlebrow nominee like Theory of Everything, so it wouldn't be surprising if this missed. --------------------- 11. Breathe: Is this going anywhere outside of Claire Foy? 12. Suburbicon: This is more likely to be a Globe play based on rumors. 13. The Florida Project: Is this going anywhere outside of Dafoe, and is this even A24's main push? 14. Downsizing: I don't want to predict anything for this until it premieres in a few weeks. 15. Phantom Thread: How accessible will this be, and will it even be out this year? I don't see a reason to drop Detroit yet. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 idk how probable mother is. he's not like a darling or anything only had one movie that really played well with the academy. and even that i remember its underperformance was a big story that day. lotta prognosticators thought black swan was getting 8-10 nods and it ended up w/ 5. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tauren Warlock Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 They might give Best Picture to Call Me By Your Name to make up for Brokeback Mountain's BP loss lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Tauren Warlock said: They might give Best Picture to Call Me By Your Name to make up for Brokeback Mountain's BP loss lol. It might get a lot of nominations but I don't think it's in the running to win anything other than maybe Supporting Actor for Stuhlbarg (too arty and we have to wait and see if the "pedophile!" stuff ends up becoming a bigger deal as the film opens). The Papers seems like the most obvious winner but that rarely ends up coming true so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 I think Florida Project might be A24's big push. It seems more academy friendly than The Disaster Artist, and Killing of the Sacred Deer isn't setting the world on fire with early buzz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said: I think Florida Project might be A24's big push. It seems more academy friendly than The Disaster Artist, and Killing of the Sacred Deer isn't setting the world on fire with early buzz. It feels weird that it's not hitting TIFF or Venice. What other film festivals could it be at before its October release date? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 There's NYFF, but otherwise idk. I know it was at Cannes though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/5/2017 at 9:48 AM, WrathOfHan said: People are dropping Detroit fast, but let's take a moment and look at the playing field: Locked: 1. The Papers: Spielberg+Streep+Hanks+Journalism=Win? 2. Dunkirk: Great box office and reviews, a big tech player, and Nolan is the Director frontunner 3. Call Me by Your Name: Great reviews, a potential acting winner, and the likely Adapted Screenplay winner Likely: 4. The Shape of Water: Probably Searchlight's main push, Del Toro is liked, probably a big tech player Probable: 5. mother!: Aronofsky is liked and the film has an amazing cast, but is it going to be too inaccessible for the Academy? 6. Get Out: It has the buzz, box office, and reception, but is it even going to get another nomination outside of Screenplay? 7. Last Flag Flying: This is one I'll likely move up in the future. It's probably Amazon's main push with several acting contenders. Test screening word is very good, so I wouldn't bet against this Fringe nominees: 8. Detroit: Obviously the box office is a fucking disaster, but this is an important film. If Annapurna can keep this in the conversation and none of the other fringe nominees become likelier, I think it's in. 9. Wonder Wheel: Woody Allen is very hit or miss. Even if this is very good, let's not forget Blue Jasmine had 3 nominations and still missed. 10. Darkest Hour: Oldman and probably a few techs will be nominated, but is it even going anywhere else? Last year sort of lacked the middlebrow nominee like Theory of Everything, so it wouldn't be surprising if this missed. --------------------- 11. Breathe: Is this going anywhere outside of Claire Foy? 12. Suburbicon: This is more likely to be a Globe play based on rumors. 13. The Florida Project: Is this going anywhere outside of Dafoe, and is this even A24's main push? 14. Downsizing: I don't want to predict anything for this until it premieres in a few weeks. 15. Phantom Thread: How accessible will this be, and will it even be out this year? I don't see a reason to drop Detroit yet. Lol, nothing is locked yet. Not even Dunkirk, and especially not the Papers or CMBYRN. At best, the three of them are in strong positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Dunkirk will likely be a major player based on the strengths of its techs ala Mad Max. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 I think Detroit is out. I saw the film, and it's really solid, but it's gotten a lot of backlash for being to violent and not doing enough to showcase the civil rights response to Algiers. With the lack of box office, it being rather polarizing, and it being an August release (meaning in a few months it'll be easier to overlook it for bigger movie names) I think Bigelow and Detroit are out of the running. Could possibly see a screenplay nod at best, I don't see how it'll contend that well elsewhere, sadly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdMan Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 I hope Blade Runner 49 doesn't disappoint , that and Shape of water are the only possible ones to make this an interesting year ( yeah , I know the others are really good but most of them were made for the award season so nobody will be surprised if they got in ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 (edited) The Current War, according to my EW Fall Movie Preview mag is now releasing on November 24, Mary Magdalene's old date, with Mary not even getting a mention. Also, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool has a release date on December 15 (unless that was already announced beforehand, which in that case, my bad) Also, Mudbound will release on November 17th. Edited August 11, 2017 by CoolEric258 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: The Current War, according to my EW Fall Movie Preview mag is now releasing on November 24, Mary Magdalene's old date, with Mary not even getting a mention. Also, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool has a release date on December 15 (unless that was already announced beforehand, which in that case, my bad) Also, Mudbound will release on November 17th. Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool was just picked up by SPC so it makes sense. It's not gonna be the studio's main push (that'll be Call Me by Your Name) or probably be in contention for anything beyond Bening, but the film gets solid notices and she gets the raves, I think she'll Julianne Moore her way to winning (it does feel like the kind of year for someone with an "overdue" status like she has to finally have her moment looking at the Best Actress contenders). Is Mudbound going to streaming on the same date? If so, we can pretty much cross it off the contenders list. Netflix needs to start following the Amazon method if they want to break in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tauren Warlock Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 (edited) I think Dunkirk is going to sweep this year. Nothing upcoming looks promising except for The Papers (still filming and will go through post production hell to be release on time), Mother! (i don't know if voters go for this type of film as it has horror elements), and The Shape of Water (same thing, the voters might not go for it). Edit: i forgot about Call Me By Your Name, but the film has mostly a foreign cast and is a small film. I could see it winning a screenplay award and that's it. The Beguiled and Detroit were considered strong contenders, but are no longer a threat with mixed reviews and poor box office. Does anyone know of any upcoming film that would be a strong BP contender? Edited August 11, 2017 by Tauren Warlock 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 The Beguiled was never actually in the running, especially when Coppola hasn't factored into the Oscar race since Lost in Translation. I'm intrigued by how Alexander Payne's Downsizing fares when it screens at Venice at the end of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
