Safeno Rdz Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Why is everyone mentioning The Shape of Water in their predictions? Del Toro has never been that big with the Academy, and there is already a stronger horror/fantasy/sci-fi contender in Get Out. By the way, do you all think that any blockbuster has still any chances?: Wonder Woman/Logan/Baby Driver/War of the Planet of the Apes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Safeno Rdz said: Why is everyone mentioning The Shape of Water in their predictions? Del Toro has never been that big with the Academy, and there is already a stronger horror/fantasy/sci-fi contender in Get Out. By the way, do you all think that any blockbuster has still any chances?: Wonder Woman/Logan/Baby Driver/War of the Planet of the Apes Re Shape of Water: It's likely going to be Searchlight's main push, and the Academy like Pan's Labyrinth quite a bit. Blockbusters: Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Blockbusters: Nope. Nah, Logan has a chance since Fox is focusing all their energy in campaigning for that and The Papers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 (edited) Logan and Wonder Woman both have a decent chance. A lot of it depends on if there are more blockbusters that play really well coming up (IT, Blade Runner 2049, Star Wars: The Last Jedi), it'll also depend on how the big on paper contenders actually play for critics. Everything is obviously still up in the air, the field probably looks like Known Major Contenders Dunkirk Get Out Call Me By Your Name The Florida Project On Paper Major Contenders The Papers The Darkest Hour Last Flag Flying The Shape of Water Phantom Thread Battle of the Sexes Suburbicon Possible Contenders Downsizing mother! Roman Israel, Esq Wonder Woman Logan Mudbound The Disaster Artist Blade Runner 2049 Molly's Game Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri You Were Never Really Here The Big Sick Off-Chance Contenders (Picture nom chance is a longshot but possible, but a decent/strong chance at competing for various other categories) IT Detroit The Greatest Showman The Current War Goodbye Christopher Robin Murder on the Orient Express All the Money in the World Victoria and Abdul The Mountain Between Us Wonder Wheel Wonder Marshall Wonderstruck Stronger Coco Lean On Pete Breathe Beauty and the Beast The Beguiled Okja Wind River Novitiate The Snowman Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes Baby Driver Edited August 15, 2017 by El Panda Machos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Re Shape of Water: It's likely going to be Searchlight's main push, and the Academy like Pan's Labyrinth quite a bit. Blockbusters: Nope. Dunkirk may have a small chance but it most likely to tech awards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) @El Panda Machos in what universe does WW and Logan have a better chance at a nomination than Detroit? Even your "longshots" like Wonder Wheel and Breathe are far ahead of those two. Edited August 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said: Dunkirk may have a small chance but it most likely to tech awards. Dunkirk is locked for a BP nomination. No way it misses IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: @El Panda Machos in what universe does WW and Logan have a better chance at a nomination than Detroit? Even your "longshots" like Wonder Wheel and Breathe are far ahead of those two. I disagree. WB is pushing WW and Fox is pushing Logan. I think there's a good chance one or the other could get in (probably not both). They have the right acclaim behind them to be "reputable" comic book nominees. Im iffy because the academy hasn't nominated a comic book movie before. However, there's a big push these last few years for the academy to be more diverse and young with its options (including expanding the memberbase). Hell, Deadpool was on the cusp of getting in last year given that it had a PGA, WGA, Editors Guild, etc. and it was way out of the academy's wheelhouse (much more than WW or Logan). TFA was another big franchise blockbuster that nearly made it, and Fury Road actually did it (but that one was more niche and acclaimed so it worked). I won't be surprised if they both miss, but I won't be shocked if one or the other makes it in (especially if a lot of the on paper nominees fall flat, which happens all the time). Nothing's locked or near locked yet, there's way to many variables this early. Also, Detroit's good but it's critical reception has been pretty divisive, and it's gotten some flack from civil rights think pieces. It also bombed, it's pretty much looking like another Steve Jobs. Edited August 15, 2017 by El Panda Machos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Re Shape of Water: It's likely going to be Searchlight's main push, and the Academy like Pan's Labyrinth quite a bit. Blockbusters: Nope. Well, it's actually a very odd choice for Searchlight to have it as their main push, I mean the Academy liked Pan's Labryinth, but it didn't even get a nomination in any of the main categories, and besides, Del Toro is not a consistent good director, so I wouldn't bet on him to have a BP nom. Edited August 15, 2017 by Safeno Rdz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 5 hours ago, El Panda Machos said: Logan and Wonder Woman both have a decent chance. A lot of it depends on if there are more blockbusters that play really well coming up (IT, Blade Runner 2049, Star Wars: The Last Jedi), it'll also depend on how the big on paper contenders actually play for critics. Everything is obviously still up in the air, the field probably looks like Known Major Contenders Dunkirk Get Out Call Me By Your Name The Florida Project On Paper Major Contenders The Papers The Darkest Hour Last Flag Flying The Shape of Water Phantom Thread Battle of the Sexes Suburbicon Possible Contenders Downsizing mother! Roman Israel, Esq Wonder Woman Logan Mudbound The Disaster Artist Blade Runner 2049 Molly's Game Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri You Were Never Really Here The Big Sick Off-Chance Contenders (Picture nom chance is a longshot but possible, but a decent/strong chance at competing for various other categories) IT Detroit The Greatest Showman The Current War Goodbye Christopher Robin Murder on the Orient Express All the Money in the World Victoria and Abdul The Mountain Between Us Wonder Wheel Wonder Marshall Wonderstruck Stronger Coco Lean On Pete Breathe Beauty and the Beast The Beguiled Okja Wind River Novitiate The Snowman Star Wars: The Last Jedi War for the Planet of the Apes Baby Driver I would move "Get out" to possible, because as good as the reviews are, it would be the first time in almost 20 years to have a horror film in competition, besides, the release date doesn't help it very much, I would say "The Papers" has much better chances than this or than "Florida Project" tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said: Well, it's actually a very odd choice for Searchlight to have it as their main push, I mean the Academy liked Pan's Labryinth, but it didn't even get a nomination in any of the main categories, and besides, Del Toro is not a consistent good director. Pan's got nominated in Original Screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Pan's got nominated in Original Screenplay. I forgot about that, but yet, even if it won a couple of tech categories, it failed to win Screenplay or Foreign language film (which everyone had as a safe bet that year) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said: I forgot about that, but yet, even if it won a couple of tech categories, it failed to win Screenplay or Foreign language film (which everyone had as a safe bet that year) Still 6 nomination for a foreign language movie is really rare in modern time and he was never snubbed yet, nothing else he did was of oscar caliber he is probably still loved in many guild branch. Edited August 15, 2017 by Barnack 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said: I forgot about that, but yet, even if it won a couple of tech categories, it failed to win Screenplay or Foreign language film (which everyone had as a safe bet that year) Keep in mind only the foreign branch was voting on the category back then; if it was open to everyone like it is now, Pan's would have easily won. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Safeno Rdz Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Barnack said: Still 6 nomination for a foreign language movie is really rare in modern time and he was never snubbed yet, nothing else he did was of oscar caliber he is probably still loved in many guild branch. He hasn't been snubbed because he hasn't released any other worthy film besides Pan's labryinth (Which is one of my favorites ever btw), maybe Pacific rim could've used a nom for Special effects, but that's it. I remember a couple year ago, Crimson's peak , I think it will be the same for this one, altought I have to admit that the trailer does look promising, but so was Crimson's peak's, which was rumored to be a strong contender and we all know how that went a couple years ago, probably the same thing will happen with this one. Edited August 15, 2017 by Safeno Rdz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 I'm now starting to buy into the Get Out hype and feel that it's moving closer and closer to "locked" territory for a Best Picture nom. It feels like the AMPAS has been gravitating more towards films tackling topical issues for the last few years and being one of the bigger success stories of the year (both with critics and at the box office) will give it the extra push on top of the current tensions unfolding in the country. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 5 hours ago, filmlover said: I'm now starting to buy into the Get Out hype and feel that it's moving closer and closer to "locked" territory for a Best Picture nom. It feels like the AMPAS has been gravitating more towards films tackling topical issues for the last few years and being one of the bigger success stories of the year (both with critics and at the box office) will give it the extra push on top of the current tensions unfolding in the country. Yeah, also since the 5% rule was introduced the films have gravitated towards critical hit and "edgier" choices. Typical Oscar bait choices have failed with a few exceptions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 The hot-button issue of boning fish should help The Shape of Water slide on in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 8 hours ago, aabattery said: The hot-button issue of boning fish should help The Shape of Water slide on in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 On 8/14/2017 at 11:43 AM, WrathOfHan said: On 8/14/2017 at 5:29 PM, WrathOfHan said: Dunkirk is locked for a BP nomination. No way it misses IMO Blockbusters: Nope. You are saying no Blockbuster are getting nominated but Dunkirk is a lock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
