Best Picture predictions-2017!

[stripe]

Given the raves and the huge opening, Lady Bird is clearly in. Saoirse Ronan has a great taste to take the best career choices. She is surely going to be the youngest actress to receive 3 noms!

 

In fact, if there were only 5 noms, I think Lady Bird could be in over Call me by your name

Three billboards

Dunkirk

Shape of Water

Get Out

Lady Bird

 

The other 3/4 expanded noms

Call me by your name

Darkest Hour

Florida Project

Mudbound

 

Fading (but still in the run)

The post (rumors it's not that good)

Last Flag Flying (less than stellar reviews, soso opening)

I Tonya (more likely an acting vehicle)

 

Possible ressurgence

Wonder Woman

The Big Sick

 

Possible December game changers

Phantom Thread

[Jake Gittes]

15 hours ago, filmlover said:

With All the Money in the World's AFI premiere looking likely to be scrapped, I wonder if one of the unseen contenders will swoop in and take its place as the closing night film. The Post probably won't, but maybe Phantom Thread will since it's finished?

PTA said in an interview a few days ago that he'll be working on the movie right up until its release.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Fading (but still in the run)

Last Flag Flying (less than stellar reviews, soso opening)

This has as much of a chance at getting nominated for Best Picture as All Eyez on Me does. It's out.

[WrathOfHan]

With Lady Bird's incredible box office, I think it's solidified itself as a Top 6 contender. I'm putting Gerwig in my Director predictions, too:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. The Post

6. Lady Bird

-------------------------

7. Darkest Hour

-------------------------

8. Get Out

-------------------------

9. Molly's Game

10. I, Tonya

11. The Big Sick

-------------------------

12. Phantom Thread

13. The Florida Project

14. The Disaster Artist

 

Director:

 

1. del Toro

2. Nolan

3. McDonagh

4. Gerwig

5. Guadagnino

 

[Jake Gittes]

Feel like y'all need to hold your horses on Lady Bird. So it attracted the NY/LA audience that it was always 100% in the wheelhouse of, so did The Big Sick and I don't see anyone going crazy about its Oscar chances, predicting Showalter for best director or whatever. 

[titanic2187]

over the last 10 years, 8 of the best picture winner was released in Oct or early Nov for general public....meaning 90th oscar best picture winner has "secretly" reveal itself in the theater already

[filmlover]

32 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Feel like y'all need to hold your horses on Lady Bird. So it attracted the NY/LA audience that it was always 100% in the wheelhouse of, so did The Big Sick and I don't see anyone going crazy about its Oscar chances, predicting Showalter for best director or whatever. 

The perks of being released during actual Oscar season vs. the heart of summer, I guess.

 

I don't think Gerwig's happening but I do think both it and The Big Sick will be nominated. Both should have no difficulty getting at SAG, especially over movies like Dunkirk and The Shape of Water which are much more directing showcases than acting ones.

Edited November 7, 2017 by filmlover

[Valonqar]

How the fuck is I,Tonya fading? based on what? The movie isn't even out yet, it has a very likely Supporting Actress Winner, it's being campaigned to the max. Is this based on that stupid AW thing, Sirsha vs Margot, only one can get in? Seriously. 

[SLAM!]

42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

How the fuck is I,Tonya fading? based on what? The movie isn't even out yet, it has a very likely Supporting Actress Winner, it's being campaigned to the max. Is this based on that stupid AW thing, Sirsha vs Margot, only one can get in? Seriously. 

 

If The Post isn't that good of a film, Meryl Streep will probably miss out, and both Margot and Saoirse will get in- at least that's what I think.

 

I'm happy for Neon. Just like A24, they have a certain willingness to distribute unique films like Colossal and Ingrid Goes West. If they push I, Tonya into Oscar territory, they'll gain legitimacy just like A24 did. I'm not too supportive of the pervasive language and sexual content that the film portrays, but if the success of the film means more exciting and unique theatrical content, then I hope it happens.

 

(That's another thing I should say. I feel like a majority of these films that are up for the awards season this year are rather gratuitous in how they display sinful content. I'm not condemning these films by any means; I just don't think films should celebrate sinful actions and advertise them front and center. The Shape of Water is likely a quality film, but just imagine the amount of broken minds flocking to the theater for the sole reason that the women and the fish-man decide to partake in erotic activities blatantly onscreen for every viewer to see. So what I'm saying is this: I'm worried that viewers will want to soak in the sin rather than the quality film-making.

 

But instead of pleading to everyone on this sight to 'save your minds from the bad films' (because if you're on this sight, you very likely watch films in a mature viewpoint), I'm going to say that I'm rooting for Dunkirk- a film with more of what I call a 'mature narration'.

 

End rant.)

Edited November 7, 2017 by slambros

[filmlover]

Streep has gotten in (hell, even won!) for "lesser" films before. Considering this is a Spielberg drama we're talking about, the chances of her missing are incredibly slim.

[Valonqar]

Yeah, she even won her third for that crap Iron Lady. It's really the baitness of the role, rather than overall movie quality, combined with the fact that she is Meryl Streep. The Post role is supposedly baity. I never cared to inform myself what the movie's about, though. 

[RichWS]

5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Feel like y'all need to hold your horses on Lady Bird. So it attracted the NY/LA audience that it was always 100% in the wheelhouse of, so did The Big Sick and I don't see anyone going crazy about its Oscar chances, predicting Showalter for best director or whatever. 

 

I get what you're saying about Showalter, but I think it comes down to release dates. If Big Sick came two weeks ago, every pundit would have it high in their Best Picture predicts. 

 

Lady Bird feels like a pretty assured Picture nominee now. It's A24's big gun. I still have my doubts about Gerwig getting in for Director, but it wouldn't be surprising.

[stripe]

19 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Feel like y'all need to hold your horses on Lady Bird. So it attracted the NY/LA audience that it was always 100% in the wheelhouse of, so did The Big Sick and I don't see anyone going crazy about its Oscar chances, predicting Showalter for best director or whatever. 

 

Well, almost all AMPAS voters are from NY/LA, so...

[Rorschach]

On 11/7/2017 at 8:54 AM, Jake Gittes said:

Feel like y'all need to hold your horses on Lady Bird. So it attracted the NY/LA audience that it was always 100% in the wheelhouse of, so did The Big Sick and I don't see anyone going crazy about its Oscar chances, predicting Showalter for best director or whatever. 

Yeah, I'd expect Peele (another debut filmmaker) to get a nod before Gerwig does.

[stripe]

Besides likeness of Del Toro and Nolan, everything can happen in Best Director

 

I would say Peele / Gerwig have better chances than Wright / Guadagnino. Their films have better reviews and they also have bonuses for being #notwhite and a woman.

 

My guess at this moment? Del Toro / Nolan / Peele / Gerwig / McDonaugh

 

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

17 minutes ago, stripe said:

Besides likeness of Del Toro and Nolan, everything can happen in Best Director

 

I would say Peele / Gerwig have better chances than Wright / Guadagnino. Their films have better reviews and they also have bonuses for being #notwhite and a woman.

 

My guess at this moment? Del Toro / Nolan / Peele / Gerwig / McDonaugh

 

 

 

Call Me by Your Name has a 95 on Metacritic/9.1 avg on RT and I don't see it dropping much if at all. It could end up the most acclaimed movie of the year.

[stripe]

On the other hand, what do you think about Kevin Spacey being completely removed from All the money in the world and replaced by Plummer? Weirdest thing I have heard in a while. 

 

Does this kill the movie's chances to be seriously considered this Awards season?

[stripe]

26 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Call Me by Your Name has a 95 on Metacritic/9.1 avg on RT and I don't see it dropping much if at all. It could end up the most acclaimed movie of the year.

 

You are right. I don't know why, but I thought that CMBYN was slightly under that scores.

It's in the same league of praise as Get Out, Three Billboards and Lady Bird.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

On the other hand, what do you think about Kevin Spacey being completely removed from All the money in the world and replaced by Plummer? Weirdest thing I have heard in a while. 

 

Does this kill the movie's chances to be seriously considered this Awards season?

No. If anything, the film just got saved.

[Webslinger]

All the Money in the World has always seemed like a big wild card, as per the usual for both a star-driven December release that didn't screen in festival season and a Ridley Scott film. If it misses, it won't be because of the Spacey/Plummer situation.

 

Call Me by Your Name seems like a safe bet for the Best Picture nomination, but you never know how exactly Oscar is going to respond to gay films. Sometimes we get a Brokeback Mountain or Milk that scores a bunch of nominations and a couple major wins, but other times we get a mysterious snub like Carol, which seemed like it had all the pieces in place for a Picture nod until it started missing the guilds. Or maybe you get a Moonlight that ends up winning the whole thing under everyone's noses.  (I don't see that happening with Call Me by Your Name, however.)