Best Picture predictions-2017!

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, spaghetti! said:

I can see it miss on Original Screenplay (especially with the field so strong this year) but festival buzz has still been incredibly strong (reviews are definitely better than that of Sweeney Todd) and we still need to see how it does once it actually hits theatres. 

 

I still think it could be the tech sweeper of the season.

I'll be very interested to see what its limited numbers look like this upcoming weekend. I don't think anything's gonna be touching Call Me by Your Name's opening numbers (since that movie had hype building up since it screened at Sundance all the way back in January).

[Ezen Baklattan]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'll be very interested to see what its limited numbers look like this upcoming weekend. I don't think anything's gonna be touching Call Me by Your Name's opening numbers (since that movie had hype building up since it screened at Sundance all the way back in January).

Idk, reaching a $100k PTA is becoming much more common with triple-A indie titles, and the strong festival buzz (plus hitting where GDT is actually a big name)

 

Then again, also be hard to judge since it’s opening in NY only then in LA on its second weekend. So you’re probably right.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, spaghetti! said:

Idk, reaching a $100k PTA is becoming much more common with triple-A indie titles, and the strong festival buzz (plus hitting where GDT is actually a big name)

 

Then again, also be hard to judge since it’s opening in NY only then in LA on its second weekend. So you’re probably right.

Oh really? Wow I thought it was opening in both. Curious to see what Fox Searchlight's expansion plan is, it's opening around here on the 15th.

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Oh really? Wow I thought it was opening in both. Curious to see what Fox Searchlight's expansion plan is, it's opening around here on the 15th.

I could see it going wide on Christmas Day and being the big indie release of the holiday. It’ll be far less accessible than La La Land, but the subject matter does seem to imply a hopeful (and perhaps anti-Trump esque) story.

[Valonqar]

Disaster Artist is going to blow past CMBYN numbers. 

[RichWS]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Disaster Artist is going to blow past CMBYN numbers. 

 

*spends minutes trying to decide if joking*.......no.

[WrathOfHan]

SAG predictions:

 

Ensemble:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. Lady Bird

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. Mudbound

Alt: The Big Sick

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. Jacob Tremblay, Wonder

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Alt: James McAvoy, Split

(Current Oscar predictions are Oldman/DDL/Chalamet/Franco/Hanks)

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

5. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Alt: Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

(Current Oscar predictions are McDormand/Streep/Ronan/Robbie/Hawkins)

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

5. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

Alt: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards

(Current Oscar predictions are Rockwell/Dafoe/Stuhlbarg/Jenkins/Odenkirk)

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Julia Roberts, Wonder

4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Alt: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

(Current Oscar predictions are Janney/Metcalf/Manville/Pfeiffer/Roberts)

 

The Post and Phantom Thread screening late will help a few contenders out. Given SAG nominated Beasts of No Nation two years ago, I don't think Mudbound will have much trouble getting into ensemble. 

 

 

[filmlover]

I'm so glad that Han is willing to go down with the mother!ship.

[WrathOfHan]

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm so glad that Han is willing to go down with the mother!ship.

Ride or die.

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ride or die.

 

Mostly die.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

Mostly die.

Han on the nomination morning in January:

 

[That One Girl]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm so glad that Han is willing to go down with the mother!ship.

 

At least he put his nominations in only 5th place this time around.  Slight improvement

[Jake Gittes]

I don't believe Ronan is above either Hawkins or Robbie. 

[4815162342]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

SAG predictions:

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. Jacob Tremblay, Wonder

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

Alt: James McAvoy, Split

 

[Valonqar]

I think that Get Out could get SAG Ensemble. The whole cast was praised and it falls into ensemble category. The movie's a bigger deal than Mudbound and Big Sick. 

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

I don't believe Ronan is above either Hawkins or Robbie. 

Ronan's definitely in over them given Lady Bird's reception.  I think Ronan's the only one who could give McDormand a run for her money.

Edited November 27, 2017 by The Panda

[WrathOfHan]

I'm still not convinced Get Out is an acting play.

[filmlover]

43 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm still not convinced Get Out is an acting play.

It's more likely to get acting nominations than mother! though.

[Jake Gittes]

2 hours ago, The Panda said:

Ronan's definitely in over them given Lady Bird's reception.  I think Ronan's the only one who could give McDormand a run for her money.

Shape of Water's reception (critically) is not any worse than Lady Bird's (it's gonna make more money too) and both Hawkins and Robbie have more physically challenging and showy roles. If Streep seriously brings the goods in The Post I can see Ronan being #5. 

[filmlover]

Watch Hawkins get the shaft like she did with Happy-Go-Lucky almost a decade ago lol.