dxmatrixdt Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: BOTM 2: Multis with some forecasting: Wonder Woman: Worst case scenario is it finishes with 380M. 380-206.6=173.4. Divide that by 58.5M and you get 2.96x. If it hits 400M, it'll be 3.31x. Mummy: Let's say it finishes with 82M. That gets it a 2.59x. Captain Underpants: With the TC drop it's having this weekend, it has 2-3M max left in the tank, so let's go with 73M. That translates to a 2.34x. POTC: Let's stay pessimistic and say it finishes at 172M. That means a 3.38x. GOTG: Being pessimistic again, let's say it tops out at 388M. It would be a 3.43x. ICAN: It's multi is basically 2.33x. Baywatch: It's done making anything substantial. If it finishes at 59M, that means a 1.72x. Megan Leavey: Let's say it gets to 13M. That means a 3.42x. Worst case scenario is it crumbles and finishes at 12.5M. That would be 3.29x. GOTG is safe regardless. It's all a matter of which 2 of WW, POTC, and Megan round it out. I think you forgot to subtract the current gross from Megan Leavy at that time. Assume it gets to 13,000,000. 8 Megan Leavey $3,810,867 $3,810,867 [(13,000,000) - (3,810,867)]/(3,810867) = 2.41 Wonder Woman: 1 Wonder Woman $58,520,672 ...$206.646,175 (400,000,000 - 206,646,175) / (58,520,672) = 3.30 GOTG: 5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $6,312,367 $366,431,539 (390,000,000 - 366,431,539) / (6,312,367) = 3.73 POTC: 4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $10,704,103 $135,830,397 (172,000,000 - 135,830,397) / (10,704,103) = 3.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Matrix4You said: I think you forgot to subtract the current gross from Megan Leavy at that time. Assume it gets to 13,000,000. 8 Megan Leavey $3,810,867 $3,810,867 [(13,000,000) - (3,810,867)]/(3,810867) = 2.41 Wonder Woman: 1 Wonder Woman $58,520,672 ...$206.646,175 (400,000,000 - 206,646,175) / (58,520,672) = 3.30 GOTG: 5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $6,312,367 $366,431,539 (390,000,000 - 366,431,539) / (6,312,367) = 3.73 POTC: 4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $10,704,103 $135,830,397 (172,000,000 - 135,830,397) / (10,704,103) = 3.38 The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer So for example, if you were to say that you think WW will have the best multiplier of the 8, then you are using the weekend number and determining from there what the multiplier will be. So right now, as of this post, for example, WW has made 206.46 million after a weekend gross of 58.52 million. If you think it will have the best multiplier, then you figure out what you think the final gross will be, subtract it from the current gross listed and the divide by the weekend number. Sounds complicated, but it's not. I thought the Megan Leavey one was tricky.... hope I am not wrong!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The current gross is the same as its OW, so I believe it's whatever multi it is. @baumer I think you only divide by the OW, but you subtract the current gross from the final gross. Therefore Megan Leavy's current gross would be zero and Monday + Tuesday and so forth will begin its quest for the multiplier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 I initially put Megan Leavey in there then realized (just before the deadline, thankfully) that "multiplier" as we typically use it doesn't apply to ML in that question. It's not over 3x because we don't use the weekend gross as part of the total. If it finishes with 13m we don't divide that by 3.8m, we only divide the post-weekend gross (9.2m). That'd be consistent with all the other movies and the way the question is worded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Just now, Jake Gittes said: I initially put Megan Leavey in there then realized (just before the deadline, thankfully) that "multiplier" as we typically use it doesn't apply to ML in that question. It's not over 3x because we don't use the weekend gross as part of the total. If it finishes with 13m we don't divide that by 3.8m, we only divide the post-weekend gross (9.2m). That'd be consistent with all the other movies and the way the question is worded. .....Dammit, I knew I should have kept POTC in there. Oh well, at least I'll get 10k for having GOTG and WW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 And I need several make ups it seems.... I have just not been paying attention - my worst game in all the years of playing and it shows cause I am doing worse than @Telemachos - something very unusual for me.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 11 hours ago, Telemachos said: This new weekly scoring system is murdering me. Used to be I could skate by with shitty weeklies and not get hurt too badly. I used to be good at weeklies. Fucking Christ, I'm bad this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 FUCK THESE SOTM......IVE BEEN DECIMATED BY THEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Moved up to top 20. My slow climb to the top continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 As for BOTM #1....I'll score that one myself...when the time is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 On 7/7/2017 at 10:59 AM, JJ-8 said: SOTM table update : # User SOTM etc SOTM 1 BOTM 1 1 24Lost 119,000 54,000 20,000 2 Matrix4You 95,000 59,000 20,000 3 Exxdee 93,000 80,000 5,000 4 Simionski 93,000 65,000 20,000 5 Empire 79,000 59,000 20,000 6 franfar 76,000 30,000 20,000 7 Jake Gittes 76,000 66,000 30,000 8 Spaghetti 71,000 66,000 5,000 9 glassfairy 68,000 60,000 5,000 10 bcf26 56,000 35,000 5,000 11 jj99 54,000 31,000 5,000 12 That One Guy 51,000 18,000 30,000 13 MrPink 47,000 42,000 5,000 14 darkelf 46,000 15,000 5,000 15 Wrath 43,000 12,000 5,000 16 aabattery 42,000 -14,000 30,000 17 Kalo 35,000 35,000 18 grim22 34,000 28,000 -20,000 19 WrathofHan 34,000 59,000 5,000 20 Grey Ghost 32,000 36,000 -20,000 21 JJ-8 32,000 12,000 20,000 22 narniadis 28,000 8,000 20,000 23 Alfred 27,000 -24,000 5,000 24 Tree 18,000 -8,000 25 #ED 15,000 15,000 26 damnitgeorge08 8,000 0 5,000 27 DamienRoc 3,000 -2,000 5,000 28 The Panda 1,000 26,000 5,000 29 BastienGiot -8,000 -8,000 30 cmasterclay -8,000 -8,000 31 Goffe -8,000 -8,000 32 Mike Hunt -8,000 -8,000 33 Chewy -18,000 -6,000 -15,000 34 kayumanggi -21,000 4,000 5,000 35 Telemachos -22,000 28,000 -20,000 36 MovieMan89 -37,000 -37,000 37 Blankments -45,000 -23,000 -30,000 38 Baumer -49,000 1,000 -20,000 39 Chasmmi -51,000 -26,000 5,000 40 Fancyarcher -58,000 -8,000 -20,000 41 Water Bottle -73,000 6,000 -15,000 Listen I might be 33rd on this chart BUT I'm above Tele and that is the only thing that matters 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, baumer said: Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing. Please no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 1 hour ago, baumer said: Id Spidey falls more than 22.5% on Sunday we are all pretty much fucked on the weekly question thing. Yep... it's ugly. 8 / 14 went YES 1 / 14 went NO 3 / 14 Passed 2 / 14 Cashed out If SMH dips less than 22.5% on sunday we will have 11 players remaining in the game (including our current top 2) if it dips more than 22.5% then only 4 players will remain. the 3 passes don't care but @bcf26 will be begging to the boxoffice gods to cause SMH to dip a little harder on sunday 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJ-8 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Well the estimate leaves very little wriggle room. QOTW will need to wait for actuals this week. 21.9 is the estimate do the answer is yes but could go either way..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 This is crazy, 21.9% is way closer then I was hoping. I still had a pass left too.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I'm confident that Sunday is being lowballed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Asgard should see our fates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 OMG for SOTM I put Yes for Captain Underpants when in my mind it was NOOOO. Just lost 30,000 points! i am going to have to do some heavy gambling now. Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys! 1. 30,000 / 1,000 - Will Spiderman make more than $40M Opening Day? - YES 2. 25,000 / 2,000 - Will Baby Driver outgross the Mummy? - YES 3. 22,000 / 3,000 - Will Transformers outgross Cars 3 Domestically? - NO 4. 20,000 / 4,000 - Will the House drop more than 60% on its second weekend? - NO 5. 18,000 / 5,000 - Will Valerian outgross Baywatch Domestically? - YES 6. 15,000 / 6,000 - Will Annabelle have an Opening Weekend above $30M? - YES 7. 12,000 / 8,000 - Will Girls Trip make more than $6M opening day? - YES 8. 10,000 / 10,000 - Will Spiderman make more than $115M Opening weekend? - YES 9. 8,000 / 12,000 - Will Atomic Blonde open above the Emoji Movie? - YES 10. 6,000 / 15,000 - Will Planet of the Apes outgross Despicable Me Domestically? - NO 11. 5,000 / 18,000 - Will Dunkirk make more than $500M worldwide? - YES 12. 4,000 / 20,000 - Will Wonder Woman make $400M? - YES 13. 3,000 / 22,000 - Will Spiderman make more than $310M by the end of the game? - YES 14. 2,000 / 25,000 - Will the Big Sick make more than $20M - YES 15. 1,000 / 30,000 - Will Captain Underpants make the final domestic top 15 list? - YES 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...