Skyscraper | July 13 2018 | Legendary | Rawson Marshall Thurber directing. The Rock. China co-production, set in China.

[Jay Beezy]

4 hours ago, Chewy said:

 

Think they know dom isn't where the money is on this one

Another issue is Universal coming off of having to market JWFK.

[Gavin Feng]

102 mins according to Chinese censorship.

[grim22]

 

[manny1234]

[Jaybee]

I thought the budget would be around 70-80m. 125m

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

I thought the budget would be around 70-80m. 125m

Good sign.

 

Wanda Group have really really deep pocket, I would imagine those first Chinese production (that and Meg) will have really good budget and pay people really high to attract them.

 

Wanda making movies and owning a large theater chain like AMC could be some kind of conflict here, movies are starting back to sound like the golden era a little bit more (specially if studio start distributing them directly in people house with streaming service more and more).

[Jaybee]

5 hours ago, Barnack said:

Good sign.

 

Wanda Group have really really deep pocket, I would imagine those first Chinese production (that and Meg) will have really good budget and pay people really high to attract them.

 

Wanda making movies and owning a large theater chain like AMC could be some kind of conflict here, movies are starting back to sound like the golden era a little bit more (specially if studio start distributing them directly in people house with streaming service more and more).

So it will make 400+ ww?

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

So it will make 400+ ww?

 

Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.

 

$125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.

 

At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.

 

Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)

 

They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.

 

If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

[Jaybee]

Thanks m

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.

 

$125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.

 

At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.

 

Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)

 

They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.

 

If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

Thanks for the info. But promotion and publicity cost is yet to be added .isn't ?

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Thanks m

Thanks for the info. But promotion and publicity cost is yet to be added .isn't ?

Not that taking everything into account.

 

If you take the scenario in which the movie would have made 219.9m worldwide (91.6 dbo / 128.3m intl) for example.

 

It was expected by Sony accountant to do:

 

In theater

DOMESTIC RENTALS: 48.55m

TOTAL DOMESTIC ADVERTISING: 41.49m

DOMESTIC PRINTS: 5.05m

OTHER COSTS: 2.81m

*DOMESTIC THEATRICAL NET: -0.8m

 

INT'L RENTALS: 53.52m (42% retention)

INT'L ADVERTISING: 35.96m

INT'L PRINTS: 9.9m

OTHER COSTS: 2.59m

*INT'L THEATRICAL NET: +5.07m

 

*Theatrical Net: 4.27m (still 200m in the reds has you see, but if a studio make more in theater than what it cost to play a movie in theater, except for the biggest one it is usually a sign in the good direction)

 

Home ent:

DOM. HOME VIDEO REVENUE: 60.81m

DOMESTIC PAY-PER-VIEW/VOD: 6.36m

DOM. HOME VIDEO COSTS: 15.97m

*DOMESTIC HOME VIDEO NETL 51.2m

 

INT'L HOME VIDEO REVENUE: 38.26m

INT'L PAY-PER-VIEW/VOD: 2.99m

INT'L HOME VIDEO COSTS: 11.41m

*INT'L HOME VIDEO NET: 29.84m

 

TV:

DOMESTIC PAY TELEVISION: 14.19m

DOMESTIC FREE TELEVISION: 11.29m

INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION: 40.32m

TV COST: 0.77m

*TOTAL TELEVISION NET: 65.03m

 

Airlines: 1.26m

Merchandises/music/etc...: 0

 

OTHER COST

Production: 125.67m

Overhead (11% of prod): 13.82m

Residuals: 9.11m

Creative bonus: 0 (creative on a profit participation contract)

Producer Bonus: 2.85m

 

In resume

Total revenues: 277.55m

World Releasing cost: 125.95m

Production&Residual and other cost: 151.507m

 

Gross profit: $193 buck....(i.e. break even point)

 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by Barnack

[The Panda]

On 6/27/2018 at 9:34 PM, grim22 said:

 

Looks like the MeToo movement has gotten Johnson too.

[lilmac]

5 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.

 

$125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.

 

At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.

 

Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)

 

They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.

 

If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

Keep doing this friend. Very informative 

[cookie]

On 6/28/2018 at 4:34 AM, grim22 said:

 

 

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.

 

$125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.

 

At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.

 

Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)

 

They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.

 

If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

Chin Han is a Singaporean..not mainland Chinese.

[Jaybee]

8 hours ago, Barnack said:

Not that taking everything into account.

 

If you take the scenario in which the movie would have made 219.9m worldwide (91.6 dbo / 128.3m intl) for example.

 

It was expected by Sony accountant to do:

 

In theater

DOMESTIC RENTALS: 48.55m

TOTAL DOMESTIC ADVERTISING: 41.49m

DOMESTIC PRINTS: 5.05m

OTHER COSTS: 2.81m

*DOMESTIC THEATRICAL NET: -0.8m

 

INT'L RENTALS: 53.52m (42% retention)

INT'L ADVERTISING: 35.96m

INT'L PRINTS: 9.9m

OTHER COSTS: 2.59m

*INT'L THEATRICAL NET: +5.07m

 

*Theatrical Net: 4.27m (still 200m in the reds has you see, but if a studio make more in theater than what it cost to play a movie in theater, except for the biggest one it is usually a sign in the good direction)

 

Home ent:

DOM. HOME VIDEO REVENUE: 60.81m

DOMESTIC PAY-PER-VIEW/VOD: 6.36m

DOM. HOME VIDEO COSTS: 15.97m

*DOMESTIC HOME VIDEO NETL 51.2m

 

INT'L HOME VIDEO REVENUE: 38.26m

INT'L PAY-PER-VIEW/VOD: 2.99m

INT'L HOME VIDEO COSTS: 11.41m

*INT'L HOME VIDEO NET: 29.84m

 

TV:

DOMESTIC PAY TELEVISION: 14.19m

DOMESTIC FREE TELEVISION: 11.29m

INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION: 40.32m

TV COST: 0.77m

*TOTAL TELEVISION NET: 65.03m

 

Airlines: 1.26m

Merchandises/music/etc...: 0

 

OTHER COST

Production: 125.67m

Overhead (11% of prod): 13.82m

Residuals: 9.11m

Creative bonus: 0 (creative on a profit participation contract)

Producer Bonus: 2.85m

 

In resume

Total revenues: 277.55m

World Releasing cost: 125.95m

Production&Residual and other cost: 151.507m

 

Gross profit: $193 buck....(i.e. break even point)

 

 

Wonderful analysis!

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Chin Han is a Singaporean..not mainland Chinese.

Oh I thought he was popular in China.

[TigerPaw]

13 hours ago, Barnack said:

Oh I thought he was popular in China.

No one in China knows him. He doesn’t even speak mandarin well - you have seen the dark knight right? He was in it - and his mandarin was pathetic.

 

i am a Singaporean and I am proud that Chin Han is in these Hollywood movies but don’t count on him to get China Box office. 

 

It is almost like say Rose Tico (Kelly Marie Tran), a Vietnamese.. can help boost China BO for Last jedi... 

 

just because these people look Chinese, does not mean they are mainland Chinese.

[Jay Beezy]

When does the review embargo lift for this?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Jay Beezy said:

When does the review embargo lift for this?

I imagine 2-3 days before opening like most movies like this do.

[lilmac]

On 6/28/2018 at 10:54 PM, Barnack said:

 

Maybe it feature Johnson & Chin Han in a movie set in China, I would imagine it should do $75m+ there. That and Red Notice is maybe putting a lot on Rawson Marshall Thurber, so quality is really up in the air, but we can assume they made the project easiest as possible, with low ambition and a big landing strip for big emotion that should be achievable to land on audience to work. The concept is a proven one and a favorite of the human deep biology.

 

$125M would be exactly the same net production budget than Matt Damon Elysium, to give a rough idea of what a studio could expect to make (and what they could want to do with that type of movie), we can look at that one.

 

At a $125.63m net cost Sony expected to break even at $219.9m worldwide (91.6b dbo / 128.3 intl), I think this can safely reach that. If Johnson is on profit participation and not frist gross dollar deal (and that the case for Red Notice), depending if they are a co-production with higher rentention rate or 25% in China, this project break even point could be around that 220-255m.

 

Profit expected at with the corresponding ROI

240m WW (100/140): 16m (5.2%)

264m WW (110/154): 27m (8.2%)

288m WW (120/168): 37m (10.7%)

300m WW (125/175): 42m (11.7%)

312m WW (130/182): 48m (12.8%)

336m WW (140/196): 58m (14.7%)

360m WW (150/210): 71m (16.8%)

420m WW (175/245): 95m (19.8%)

 

They judged a good return for the capital spent was of 15.5% (around 350m WW) and expected the movie to do 300m.

 

If it is remotely good (say 5/10 or more reception) and has extreme crowd pleasing has it seem to be, I think it should easily work.

Does the $125m include marketing though? Also, sometimes distribution deals can offset costs